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« Last post by Michael on August 17, 2024, 09:41:28 AM »
I recently read something that could explain why the climate timeline is not being overtly discussed. It is due to what happened in 2023, especially the last part of that year. Global temperatures rocketed up so high, that scientists were thrown into confusion. The question they were confronted with, and which still hasn't been solved, is, was this an outlier event and temperatures would return to predictive modelling, or was this the new trajectory?
It terrified climate scientists because they could not identify why the temperatures were so high - there were many contributing factors they could understand, but these did not add up to a satisfactory explanation. Thus, what were they missing?
The difference between these two scenarios is between years and decades in the modelling. That, I reflect, is why I was getting the gut feeling of three years - I was subconsciously collating the 2023 data, and projecting that forward. Scientists who were alarmed, as now feeling there is a high possibility that 2023 was an outlier, and that, tentatively, data is showing a return to modelling. But they remain extremely nervous about this, and are hoping the Pacific will produce a La Niña cooling event in the remainder of 2024. It is currently in equilibrium - waiting to see which way it will tip.