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« Last post by Michael on August 03, 2024, 10:04:03 AM »
A little more examination of 'How long have we got?'
Scientists speak of the potential for either gradual, quick or dramatic. These all refer to how much time we will get to adapt. The dramatic scenario relates to tipping points - this is less likely but definitely possible, like a polar flip or even a 'true polar wander' that disrupts the earth's radiation protection. We'll all be in very deep shit if any dramatic catastrophe hits us.
Otherwise, what we are talking about are 'events'.
Regardless of a gradual or quick escalations into major and indefinite climate transformation that renders vast earth areas uninhabitable and civilisation collapse, what we are currently seeing is an increase in the footprint and intensity of destructive climate events.
When I speculate, as a personal view, that we have three years, I'm referring to the rate and impact of these events reaching a threshold of societal impact. Some speculate that will take ten years, while others say the primary threshold will fall around 2050. My view is based on gut feeling, looking at what is already happening, and the cascading sequence timeline. Scientists have to be very conservative in projections due to aggressive scrutiny by the denialists, though many scientists say that we are already over the 1.5° threshold and 3° is now unavoidably embedded.
A recent US study commissioned by the Biden administration said that the greatest misunderstanding by the public, which is resisting adaptation measures, is the belief that future climate events will be similar in nature to past events. Totally untrue - we've not seen anything before, like what is coming.
Already we see these amplified events, and deaths from them, are increasing, but the most health destructive are heat waves, and these are recurring at alarming rates. In the last year many urban areas across the world reached 50°C (122°F), with exposed highways and large carparks over 80°C (176°F).
So what I expect to see is a steady upthrust of destruction from these events, but leaving many areas unscathed such that insufficient public outrage will leave government policies in the hands of the fossil fuel industries. Studies have found that calamitous events don't change public policy.
One's aim is to manoeuvre to reduce the risk of being trapped in one of these events.
My prediction of three years is that by then, the devastating impact on society, including supply lines and shortages of medicines and food, will reach a level where local communities across the globe will need to self-organise to survive.