Author Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!  (Read 31055 times)

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2160 on: November 16, 2015, 08:58:45 PM »
Talk of war? G20 wraps up and we have stiffened sentiment towards support for France, but no action.

At current status, France is on its own - bomb a few more targets and bury the dead at home.

Yet somehow, I feel there is a new tide growing for the West to enter the BoG (Boots on Ground).

Jahn

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2161 on: November 17, 2015, 07:02:49 AM »


At current status, France is on its own - bomb a few more targets and bury the dead at home.


Not really, as France (through president Hollande) has declared that this late attack in Paris means War, all EU states has an obligation to support France. And the Swedish minister of Foreign Affairs (Margot Wallström) has already said that we will support France in any way that we can.

Sweden has in this very moment officers in Iraq that support fighting Iraq forces toward Daesh, with advices and military strategy, this engagement for instance can be increased.

Note that the Swedish Army do not engage with fire forces, only strategic know how.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2162 on: November 17, 2015, 11:24:20 PM »
With all due respect - if US decides not to go - nobody goes. Only the US has the muscle to go in.

The rest - advice, training and other stuff has been proven pretty ineffectivein the case of Iraq. Iraq is a spineless state. Iran has much more backbone and will to fight Sunni radicals and others.

However, there are about 25,000 Shiites from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Hezbollah, etc. fighting in Syria under Iranian command. They have been making all the difference.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2163 on: November 18, 2015, 08:37:59 AM »
With all due respect - if US decides not to go - nobody goes. Only the US has the muscle to go in.

The rest - advice, training and other stuff has been proven pretty ineffectivein the case of Iraq. Iraq is a spineless state. Iran has much more backbone and will to fight Sunni radicals and others.

However, there are about 25,000 Shiites from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Hezbollah, etc. fighting in Syria under Iranian command. They have been making all the difference.

It appears that the current patchwork response to IS is less than satisfactory. Every claim to be degrading IS turns out false. Even Russia's entry has had only minimal effect. I doubt anyone is happy about Iran winning this war for a pan Shia Middle East empire. I have to agree with Juhani - without the US, nothing significant can happen. But Obama is obviously not keen, and that reflects the mood in the US.

Russia is now angry, as is France, but I can't see that changing ground situation. I'd have to say, it's not until IS conduct a major atrocity within the US, will full scale fight be taken up. Unfortunately, IS also knows this, and they are actively seeking the US to come into the battle, to create their word for armageddon.

Having said that, I do think France's call to upgrading Nato involvement will have some effect. All current partners fighting in Syria and Iraq will increase their efforts. Will this make any difference? I doubt it. But worse, even if the US does go in fully committed, will that create an even worse future for the area? Probably.

Jahn

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France and Daesh
« Reply #2164 on: November 19, 2015, 07:59:45 AM »
yes, wg
but you'll will see what will happen within the next Three months.

It is all about "energy" as you know.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2165 on: November 19, 2015, 07:42:52 PM »
Would be interesting to see that happen Jahn. Unfortunately the western powers have known how to destroy IS for years, and it could happen within a few months if they were really serious. But they are not serious. They prefer to posture and pretend - I'm not entirely sure why, and what they are gaining out of all this. But for sure the answer is as plain as the nose on their faces, and they know it.

The simple answer is Turkey. Turkey supports IS and binds IS's greatest foes, the Kurds. Everyone know it, and no one wants to step up to changing it. Without Turkeys support for IS, it would collapse in a matter of months.

So I'll tell you what to look for if the west ever decides to get serious - Turkey changing sides.

Why don't they? Turkey is Sunni, and the Kurds are Shia. The Kurds seek political power in Turkey. Turkey seeks a Sunni Syria as a trade route to Saudi Arabia. But most importantly Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants total power in Turkey, with his Sunni Black Turks.

Think the western nations can't change this situation? Of course they can, in a flash. So why don't they?

Jahn

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Daesh
« Reply #2166 on: November 20, 2015, 08:14:58 AM »

From my Point of view, It will be a significant change in the Middle East within three months.

It is also wise to take tsar Putins statement for real: That they will find the guys that put the bomb in their jet airliner in Africa "where ever they hide on this planet".

I can read Hollande, I can read Putin, and they both run nations that has a lot of experience in these kind of business.
The guys in Daesh (IS, ISIL) will wish they were never born.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2167 on: November 20, 2015, 08:36:15 PM »
Well that may be Jahn, and hopefully so. But I can't help ask what spirits are behind these groups, and what battles are going on betwixt the gods.

Meanwhile, the 'powers' are involved in a political solution (without Turkey).

The idea is that the US, Russia and Iran have come up with a plan. Assad goes, and a transition government does two things: firstly they allow time for the Syrian internal powers for whom Assad was only a fronts-person, to reposition themselves. Then the new Syrian government brings in as many different cultural and religious factions as possible, to form a democratic system. With Iran on board, that covers a swag of Shia groups. With Russia, they can tell Assad to piss off.

Of course, Sunni rebel groups, including IS, will take no notice, because although Saudi Arabia will have to modify it's position, it has no influence over it's religious-extremist-spawned Sunni groups. So the battle against them will have to still be fought, except the moderates should come on-board.

The thing about IS, is that it has had little interest in fighting Assad - it has it's own agenda.

Jahn

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2168 on: November 21, 2015, 07:18:14 AM »
Well that may be Jahn, and hopefully so. But I can't help ask what spirits are behind these groups, and what battles are going on betwixt the gods.

The situation is very complex and no solutions to unlock it will come up soon. What I meant most of all, is that both France and Russia will pin down persons that are Active (and their relatives), or suspected  to become Active in the brutal Teff ism that we have seen so many examples of.

To make Syria, and the areas controlled by xaesh (xS), into a gravel heap, that will be the last move by the western alliance.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2015, 07:43:22 AM by Jahn »

erik

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Re: Daesh
« Reply #2169 on: November 21, 2015, 11:30:50 AM »
From my Point of view, It will be a significant change in the Middle East within three months.

February? I'll keep that in mind.
Last big coalition (after) 9/11 made gigantic mistakes that led to appearance of ISIS.
To be honest, I do not think westerners have it in their brains - to work out functional solutions for states falling apart (Syria, Iraq and others).
« Last Edit: November 21, 2015, 11:51:48 AM by erik »

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2170 on: November 21, 2015, 11:51:10 AM »
Well that may be Jahn, and hopefully so. But I can't help ask what spirits are behind these groups, and what battles are going on betwixt the gods.

Meanwhile, the 'powers' are involved in a political solution (without Turkey).

The idea is that the US, Russia and Iran have come up with a plan. Assad goes, and a transition government does two things: firstly they allow time for the Syrian internal powers for whom Assad was only a fronts-person, to reposition themselves. Then the new Syrian government brings in as many different cultural and religious factions as possible, to form a democratic system. With Iran on board, that covers a swag of Shia groups. With Russia, they can tell Assad to piss off.

Of course, Sunni rebel groups, including IS, will take no notice, because although Saudi Arabia will have to modify it's position, it has no influence over it's religious-extremist-spawned Sunni groups. So the battle against them will have to still be fought, except the moderates should come on-board.

The thing about IS, is that it has had little interest in fighting Assad - it has it's own agenda.

It's not a plan, but wishful thinking. Western countries have tried push similar thing down on rebels and al-Assad several times already...and failed invariably and miserably.
(1) Practically no rebel group would buy the idea of Syria as a secular state; '
(2) Western powers have pretty much no influence over rebels whose vast majority are Islamists;
(3) Ceasefire with some groups and ongoing war against others - that's possible only on paper.

Moreover, Iran wants Shia-dominated state to have a land bridge to Hezbollah, while Saudis want Sunni state to cut off Hezbollah and roll back Shias in Iraq. My claim, and that of quite a few experts working with the region, is that Western powers have only a residual influence  there. Regional dynamics is increasingly shaped by larger countries in the region.

Given, that Iran is already fighting with almost regular units in Syria and may well escalate (Syrian army is pretty much exterminated and lost 90% of its combat value, whereas Iranians and foreign Shias who hold the line now), I'd reckon Saudis are close to acquiring nuclear weapons.

Mind you, that on 26 July 2015 al-Assad gave a speech where he mentioned that Syria might have to yield more territory to rebels. Russians intervened hastily after that.

We are slowly but steadily moving towards the big one in the Middle East and possibly elsewhere.


Jahn

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Re: Daesh
« Reply #2171 on: November 22, 2015, 06:03:45 AM »

Last big coalition (after) 9/11 made gigantic mistakes that led to appearance of ISIS.

So for once, you are on the same track as I (was).
The false flag operation of 9 11 was only an excuse to start that crazy crusade in Afgahnistan and Iraq.
Look how fast after that day they yankees had a new agenda. If I remember it right they were into Afgahnistan in October.

erik

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Re: Daesh
« Reply #2172 on: November 22, 2015, 06:36:36 AM »
So for once, you are on the same track as I (was).
The false flag operation of 9 11 was only an excuse to start that crazy crusade in Afgahnistan and Iraq.
Look how fast after that day they yankees had a new agenda. If I remember it right they were into Afgahnistan in October.

Jahn, I am on a completely different track.

Jahn

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Re: Daesh
« Reply #2173 on: November 22, 2015, 06:48:29 AM »
Jahn, I am on a completely different track.

Of course you are. [But such buildings do not collapse on their own, and the Danish professor Niels Harrit found tons of Thermite in the Ashes from WTC.] :-)
But you can see the stupidity to interfere in the Middle East, I suppose.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTQf3w7NsNQ


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRsm-J4V08w


 

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