The reason I am saying Obama's approach is more than a good feeling of trying to do the right thing, that it is in fact a very clever strategy, is as follows.
In the last few days, an interesting development occurred in the North-Western Provinces of Pakistan. After a Taliban attack on a mosque, the local villagers mobilised, travelled to a Taliban stronghold and attacked them, killing a number of Taliban. This is a new turn of events. There are organised Taliban resistance groups supported by the Pak Govt, but this is a new turn, a spontaneous reaction from villagers.
I would say, that if it were not for the current military assault against the Taliban by the Pak army, these villagers would not have dared react this way.
I use this as an indicator that there are attitudes and forces all across the world which are only waiting for the tide to turn generally in the direction of sanity and moderation. They have not dared to act to date for two reasons. Firstly, because the great powers, esp USA, have been noticeably on the side of insanity and extremism.
Secondly because there had been a strong willingness by the general populations, to support aggressive and intolerant solutions. But this approach is now reaching its natural satiation point, and across many of the troubled countries, there is real desire to stop the killing and return to negotiated peace where people can just get on with building prosperity.
It all hinges now on one man. The world is ready, the time is right, but without that one man in the central cog of the USA Government, it would have a far more troubled path, and very likely go the opposite direction.
This can be seen state by state, but here are a few examples.
Iran: an election is brewing, and Dinner Jacket is seriously under threat from numerous moderate candidates. plus the economy has been in a dive, which is added fuel for change of President. Again the time is right - Iranians are generally fed up with being the pariah. they are a very intelligent people, and want acceptance in the modern world. Obama's initiatives are giving a huge impetus to political change in Iran.
Israel: Binyamin Netanyahu is under serious pressure, and is about to reveal a new peace initiative with the Palestinians. What has caught them off guard, is that Obama is holding out a carrot they have dearly sought ever since the founding of modern Israel: recognition and acceptance by all their Arab neighbours. For this, they are, albeit reluctantly, ready to agonise over the issues of Palestine, and settlement constructions. The return of the refugees in Lebanon is still a huge thorn in everyone's political ambitions, plus Iran's nuclear moves, but those aside (not easy), I expect you will now see major debates and even violent arguments within Israel between those who always wanted peaceful coexistence, and those who always wanted the Palestinians to clear out completely.
But also for Israelis there is another growing concern - the damage done to the world's attitude to all Jews has taken a disastrous dive in the last ten years or so. And increasingly so. There is growing pressure from the Jews everywhere, who send in so much money to Israel, to come up with some face-saving and effective solution to their Palestinian problems, and their image problems.
Palestine (dare I use that word?): there is now a real impetus to give up violence against Israelis, if only they will finally get their own state. Somehow I doubt they will so easily give up violence against themselves.
India: just to paint a different picture - for about a week, there was no mention of Obama's speech in Cairo, on the front page of the Times of India. All they were concerned about was anti-Indian racism in Australia. Conveniently ignoring their own anti-Muslim racism.
USA: what Obama is holding out to Americans for support of his policy, is for the more moderate demography, at last a sane and intelligent person in charge. But for the others, there is a the carrot that perhaps once again the USA may regain their dearly desired profile of being admired across the globe. Americans have been deeply shocked at the hate directed at them during the Bush years, and that this would be turned around, and the world would once again see them as the shining light of Democracy and a 'Force for Good' (dare I say it?), is just too much to hope for. They may be willing to just give him a little time to see if he can pull that one off.
In so many countries, the possibility that internal forces will rally to the call for a change to sanity and the cherished desire to get down to the serious business of making money, is higher now than ever before. The time is with Obama. Even China may now step in and tell the North Koreans to stop their idiocy, as the last thing they want is trouble up there, with their own economic recovery so delicately poised, and the political implications of mishandling that.
So I am saying it is actually a clever strategy. You may even soon see a big push against Wahhabism from within Islam itself, but that would have to come from Saudi Arabia, and it isn't showing any signs of happening yet. That will be a hard nut to crack.
However, across the globe, the forces against any shift from belligerence and violence are overwhelmingly strong. Even within the USA, the self-interest of the Military and Weapons industry is ready to pull all the nasty tricks it can to not lose it's power over Government funding. But the other big business industries are severely weakened, and now looking for a peaceful world economic domain, to relaunch their teetering empires.
Interesting times...
