Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[Jahn]

So we all just sit back and watch a massacre unfold. Libyans are completely on their own in this, while the world wrings its hands in futile mock-anguish.

I agree that it does not look well at the moment. But the "force" is not from outside, it is within.

[Michael]

Japan:

Official says a partial meltdown is "highly possible"

[Michael]

And it's flooding again in North Queensland as well as North West Australia. Just seems like one disaster or upheaval after another.

I'd just like to say a thank-you to all those who have poured millions and millions into the anti-Global Warming campaign, which hoodwinked so many poor simple souls. Now we are paying for it, and it's not going to stop.

There has been some discussion about the effects of Greenhouse gasses upon Climate Change also affecting the current cluster of earthquakes. Naturally the seismologists can't claim a link, because they can't prove one. But add them to the sun activity and we seem to have the perfect storm scenario. The next five years should be a whiz-banger. Glad I'm in a stable and high location.

[Builder]

The UN won't do anything because Russia and China reserve the right to do exactly the same as Qaddafi.

So we all just sit back and watch a massacre unfold. Libyans are completely on their own in this, while the world wrings its hands in futile mock-anguish.

Today, 13.03.2011 at 1pm: Al Jazeera's Tony Birtley reports from Benghazi that, " There is a lot of concern here, a lot going on, a lot of misinformation, a lot of rumours, a lot of speculation, and a lot of worried people at the moment.

"As far as the national transitional council is concerned, they are saying that they are still fighting and they  they are still in control.

"However, they say that they need international help. I think they  admit openly that this is the only way out for them - international intervention of some kind, is the only way that they are going to win.

"Ten days ago, they were on the advance but now they are on the retreat."

The US seems supportive of the no-fly zone, but they would go only through UN and that means near-certain veto from Russia or China.

Moreover, Gaddafi seems to have quite a bit of support left amoing Libyans:

Today at 12:08pm Our correspondent from Tripoli shared the interesting accounts of the battle, that she heard from the journalists who were taken on this trip to Ras Lanuf.

"It doesn't appear that the army has been engaged in Ras Lanuf, the soldiers that the journalists met when they were there, introduced themselves as volunteers.

"Although, it's a given that Colonel Gaddafi has access to superior forces but it seems he is not deploying everything in hand. He may not even have deployed the supposedly best armed, best trained Khamis brigade, on the Ras Lanuf effort.

"He (Gaddafi) has for him, fighting, enough people who are volunteers from other parts of the country, a lot of them to have come from an area which has tribal ties to Gaddafi to overwhelm the untrained, poorly supplied, poorly prepared rebel forces.

"On the ground, there is no evidence of big weapons, large-scale military equipment, now that being said, they had an awful lot of time to clear the area before they brought foreign journalists to this trip, which was not a free trip."

[Builder]

The next five years should be a whiz-banger. Glad I'm in a stable and high location.

Five years sounds like an infinitely long time in the modern world. I'd say every coming season of year entails a test nowadays. Test after test after test - they will become harder and harder.

[Builder]

(Reuters) - The European Union and NATO said their conditions had not yet been met for imposing a no-fly zone on Libya, the day after Arab countries called for the warplanes of Muammar Gaddafi to be pinned down.

Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa said the League, meeting in Cairo on Saturday, had decided that "serious crimes and great violations" committed by Gaddafi's government against his people had stripped it of legitimacy.

Officials from the EU and NATO said that Arab support was just one of three conditions that must be met before they could unleash a military assault to protect rebel-held cities from Gaddafi's air force.

The other two conditions, agreed by EU leaders on Friday, are proof that their help is needed and a "clear legal basis" -- widely understood to mean a resolution for action from the U.N. Security Council.

"We have started what I would describe as prudent careful planning for all options," said the EU's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who will meet the Arab League on Sunday.

A NATO official said: "Regional support is one of the three conditions. For us the three conditions have not changed, and we do not have a U.N. mandate."

"There needs to be demonstrable need -- that NATO can add value to the efforts of the international community through its capabilities and structures -- a clear legal basis, which means a U.N. mandate, and clear regional support."

But events on the ground were moving faster than diplomacy. While the EU and Washington hesitate, Gaddafi has marshalled his forces to defy a tide of reform. ]

Rebels in the east of Libya said on Sunday the front line had been pushed back to the rebel-held oil town of Brega, some 220 km (137 miles) south of the rebel stronghold of Benghazi.

The rebels, armed mostly with light machineguns and rocket-propelled grenades, are outgunned by Gaddafi's forces using tanks and aircraft.

Diplomats in New York said a U.N. Security Council meeting at the weekend was unlikely.

If the Council does meet to discuss a Libyan no-fly zone, it is far from clear whether it would pass a resolution as veto holders Russia and China have both publicly opposed the idea.

France and Britain have pushed for tough action against Gaddafi, but Germany and many other EU governments are wary.

(Writing by Pete Harrison, additional reporting by David Brunnstrom, edited by Richard Meares)

[Michael]

Something relevant to current events:

"Occult power can be obtained in two ways, by placing oneself in the van of evolution, where force has not yet been confined in form but lies loose, as it were, free to enter whatever channel is opened to it; or by retreating to the rear of the race, where unabsorbed force is again available.

Lucas had chosen the latter path; he, with all the endowments of modern humanity, had deliberately reverted to an earlier phase of evolution, to a time when space was void and forms were being built, before the time when Jehovah had made it plain to man that he was his brother's keeper and accountable for him."

[THE DEMON LOVER]

[Michael]

Libya: I don't feel the game is up yet. In the last few days I have changed my mind about the external powers demonstrable response.

Firstly the Arab league's decision to back a no-fly-zone, then Obama's decision to back it, and lastly if possible, it's implementation, which is looking more possible by the day.

The reason is psychological. It has not gone unobserved that Qaddafi is pleased world media has shifted to Japan, so he can get on with the job unhindered. But the truth is that world media plays a minor role in Libya, as distinct from Egypt. Libyan rebels are on their own, and always have been; in fact they haven't asked for help except the no-fly-zone. And most analysts see that as technically a minor factor in the war.

But the psychological effect on the original military, on both sides, would be huge. If they get the idea the world has turned against Q, then what is of paramount importance to them is what side their bread will be buttered. The ultimate winner in this conflict is absolutely critical to their allegiance. Seen that the world, including the Arab world, is against Q, then the question becomes much clearer.

[Builder]

The trick is that Gaddafi does not need the planes, actually. Their efficiency has not been too high and he has enough fire power anyway.

The game changer are  the military men on the side of rebels. If they are put in command, the defected troops are allowed to assume control of the front line and the commanders are allowed to instil hard discipline, they could stop Gaddafi in his tracks. If rebels do not do it - they're doomed.

It is all about the troops and discipline.

[Michael]

Sending in Saudi troops to Bahrain. This isn't going to go down well.

[Michael]

The game changer are the military men on the side of rebels. If they are put in command...

Absolutely - it is a military exercise now, and no amount of well-wishing or high spirits can supplant that.

But the rebels now do have a new commander from the military, with 8,000 troops - if you can believe what anyone says.

[Builder]

But the rebels now do have a new commander from the military, with 8,000 troops - if you can believe what anyone says.

They manage to hold the line - they stand a chance.

Then they'd have to start moving forward and combine fire with movement (a task several orders of magnitude harder than holding the line).

Then they would need to establish supply train accross the desert. They'd have to cover over 1,000 km from Benghazi to Tripoli.

It all takes iron-hard determination and discipline. If only they allowed professionals to manage the military thing.

[Michael]

fire with movement

Ah... that brings back memories.

[Muffin]

UN authorises no-fly zone over Libya
Security Council imposes a no-fly zone over Libya and authorises "all necessary measures" to protect civilians.

The United Nations Security Council has voted on a resolution authorising military intervention in Libya to protect Libyan citizens, including the enforcement of a no-fly zone.

The members of the UNSC voted with 10 in favour, none against the resolution and five abstentions.

The resolution fulfills a long-standing demand from pro-democracy opposition forces in Libya asking for a no-fly zone to be established in order to prevent Muammar Gaddafi, the Libyan leader, from using fighter jets to bombard their positions, as they have been doing.

It comes just a few hours after Gaddafi warned residents of Benghazi, an opposition stronghold, that his forces would show "no mercy" in an impending assault on the city.

The draft of the resolution was prepared by the United Kingdom, France and Lebanon, and in the hours ahead of the meeting the United States appeared to have changed its stance on the issue by actively backing calls for not just a no-fly zone, but also strikes against Libyan military targets that could be mobilised against civilians.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Alain Juppe, the French foreign minister, said there was not much time left for the international community to act.

"France is very much involved in this action and has prepared the draft resolution. We have one goal… we want to stop the attacks by the Gaddafi regime against civilian populations.

"And it's a question of days or hours because the pressure against Benghazi, especially, is now very tough."

The Libyan defence ministry on Thursday, before the vote, warned that any military intervention in Libya would endanger air and sea traffic in the Mediterranean Sea.

In a statement released by the state-run Jana news agency, the ministry said that both civilian and military targets in the Mediterranean will be attacked.

[Builder]

UN authorises no-fly zone over Libya

That may prove another game-changer, though, I wonder - what would these no-fliers do if Gaddafi takes Benghazi, Misurata and Tobruk? They would have the sky, Gaddafi would have land...

French say they could start flying and shooting Gaddafians out of the sky almost at once, the US says it would take a week to establish a functioning no-fly zone.

Thus, Gaddafi has 3-5 days to quell the uprising.