Libya: I don't feel the game is up yet. In the last few days I have changed my mind about the external powers demonstrable response.
Firstly the Arab league's decision to back a no-fly-zone, then Obama's decision to back it, and lastly if possible, it's implementation, which is looking more possible by the day.
The reason is psychological. It has not gone unobserved that Qaddafi is pleased world media has shifted to Japan, so he can get on with the job unhindered. But the truth is that world media plays a minor role in Libya, as distinct from Egypt. Libyan rebels are on their own, and always have been; in fact they haven't asked for help except the no-fly-zone. And most analysts see that as technically a minor factor in the war.
But the psychological effect on the original military, on both sides, would be huge. If they get the idea the world has turned against Q, then what is of paramount importance to them is what side their bread will be buttered. The ultimate winner in this conflict is absolutely critical to their allegiance. Seen that the world, including the Arab world, is against Q, then the question becomes much clearer.