Topic: Around the Globe in Real Time

[Quantum Shaman]

Okay - I'd like to see the fridge dance.  LOL   

[Builder]

Refrigerator Dance

[Nichi]

Hurricane Igor [Sept 2010] was the second largest hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic.

[Nichi]

Coming for the northern Phillipines, and said to be the "worst in Phillipine history".

180 mph, Category 5, gusts to 220mph

[Nichi]

This image has changed in the past few hours (attached). I wonder what accounts for the yellowish color -- And the eyewall depression appears to be coming out of the cyclone. Wonder if that's "eyewall replacement", wherein the old one is discarded, so to speak, and a new one takes over.

As it approaches land, it has decreased from 185 to 165mph - but "165" is still a cat 5.

It appears to be larger than the entire island.

[Michael]

It's hit landfall and the news - doesn't sound good.

[Nichi]

Super typhoon lashes Philippines, knocks out power
           
Bullit Marquez, Associated Press Writer – 24 mins ago
CAUAYAN, Philippines – The strongest cyclone in years to buffet the Philippines knocked out communications and power as residents took shelter Monday, while flooding in Vietnam swept away a bus and 20 of its passengers, including a boy taken from his mother's grasp by the raging waters.

Super Typhoon Megi, crossing the northern Philippines, was expected to add to the already heavy rains that have fallen on much of Asia. In China, authorities evacuated 140,000 people from a coastal province ahead of the typhoon.

Megi could later hit Vietnam, where flooding has caused 30 deaths in recent days, in addition to those missing and feared dead after a bus was snatched off a road by surging currents Monday.

Megi packed sustained winds of 140 miles (225 kilometers) per hour and gusts of 162 mph (260 kph) as it made landfall midday Monday at Palanan Bay in Isabela province, felling trees and utility poles and cutting off power, phone and Internet services in many areas. It appeared to be weakening while crossing the mountains of the Philippines' main northern island of Luzon.

With more than 3,600 Filipinos riding out the typhoon in sturdy school buildings, town halls, churches and relatives' homes, roads in and out of coastal Isabela province, about 320 kilometers (200 miles) northeast of Manila, were deserted and blocked by collapsed trees and power lines.

One man who had just rescued his water buffalo slipped and fell into a river and probably drowned, said Bonifacio Cuarteros, an official with the Cagayan provincial disaster agency.

As it crashed ashore, the typhoon whipped up huge waves. There was zero visibility and radio reports said the wind was so powerful that people could not take more than a step at a time. Ships and fishing vessels were told to stay in ports, and several domestic and international flights were canceled.

Thousands of military reserve officers and volunteers were on standby, along with helicopters, including six Chinooks that were committed by U.S. troops holding war exercises with Filipino soldiers near Manila, said Benito Ramos, a top disaster-response official.

"This is like preparing for war," Ramos, a retired army general, told The Associated Press. "We know the past lessons, and we're aiming for zero casualties."

In July, an angry President Benigno Aquino III fired the head of the weather bureau for failing to predict that a typhoon would hit Manila. That storm killed more than 100 people in Manila and outlying provinces.

This time, authorities sounded the alarm early and ordered evacuations and the positioning of emergency relief and food supplies days before the typhoon hit. The capital was expected to avoid any direct hit, though schools were closed.

Megi was the most powerful typhoon to hit the Philippines in four years, government forecasters say. A 2006 howler with 155-mph (250-kph) winds set off mudslides that buried entire villages, killing about 1,000 people.

In central Vietnam, officials said 20 people on a bus were swept away Monday by strong currents from a river flooded by recent rains unrelated to Megi, while another 18 survived by swimming or clinging to trees or power poles.

One survivor treaded water for 3 1/2 hours as the current pushed her downstream and she was forced to let go of her 15-year-old son due to exhaustion. The boy is among the missing.

Officials said 30 other people died in central Vietnam from flooding over the weekend, and five remain missing.

Megi could add to the misery.

"People are exhausted," Vietnamese disaster official Nguyen Ngoc Giai said by telephone from Quang Binh province. "Many people have not even returned to their flooded homes from previous flooding, while many others who returned home several days ago were forced to be evacuated again."

China's National Meteorological Center said Megi was expected to enter the South China Sea on Tuesday, threatening southeastern coastal provinces. The center issued its second-highest alert for potential "wild winds and huge waves," warning vessels to take shelter and urging authorities to brace for emergencies.

Floods triggered by heavy rains forced nearly 140,000 people to evacuate from homes in the southern island province of Hainan, where heavy rains left thousands homeless over the weekend, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Monday.

Thailand also reported flooding that submerged thousands of homes and vehicles and halted train service. No casualties were reported, and nearly 100 elephants were evacuated from a popular tourist attraction north of the capital.

We won't know everything until power's back ... and the thing is still moving through the island.

(Wow about the weather head in July, who did not predict a typhoon coming to Manila, and 100 were killed...)

[Nichi]

World's most intense tropical cyclones
World's most intense tropical cyclones

Megi makes the list.

[Nichi]

Indonesia tsunami deaths increase after Sumatra quake

BBC

More than 100 people have been killed and many are missing after a tsunami triggered by an earthquake off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia.

Scores of houses were destroyed by waves after the 7.7 magnitude quake, which struck 20km (13 miles) under the ocean floor near the Mentawai islands.

Ten villages on the islands were swept away by the tsunami, a disaster official told the AFP news agency.



Damage and rough weather are delaying efforts to reach the affected area.

Hendri Dori Satoko, a lawmaker in the Mentawai islands, told Metro TV: "Our latest data from crisis centre showed that 108 people have been killed and 502 are still missing."

He said some of the missing could have fled to higher ground and were afraid to return to their homes.

Health ministry officials said 113 bodies had been recovered in the area so far, the Associated Press news agency reported.

The search and rescue operation is being seriously hampered by bad weather, officials have told the BBC's Karishma Vaswani in Jakarta.

Heavy rain is preventing helicopters from accessing the area and boats cannot reach the islands either because the dock on the island of South Pagai has been destroyed.

Poor communications have also made it hard for officials to gain accurate information, our correspondent adds.

The disaster comes as thousands of people are being evacuated from the area around the Mt Merapi volcano in central Java, after it began erupting.

But seismologists say there is very little chance that the two events are connected.

Body bags
 
The quake hit late on Monday off the west coast of Sumatra. There is no tsunami warning system in place around the Mentawai islands, but the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued an alert of a local tsunami.

 
It later said a "significant tsunami" had been generated. The alert has now been cancelled as no further waves are expected although the area is still experiencing strong aftershocks.

Eyewitnesses say a huge wave was created by the quake, which seriously damaged villages or even washed them away entirely.

The islands of South Pagai and North Pagai were reported to be particularly badly affected.

Waves reached 3m (10ft) high and the water swept inland as far as 600m on South Pagai island, said Mudjiharto - the head of Indonesia's health ministry crisis centre, who like many Indonesians goes by only one name.

He said 200 body bags were being sent to the region in case they were needed.

 "Ten villages have been swept away by the tsunami," National Disaster Management Agency spokesman Agolo Suparto told AFP.

Most buildings in the South Pagai coastal village of Betu Monga were destroyed, Hardimansyah, an official with the regional branch of the Department of Fisheries, told the Reuters news agency by phone.

"Of the 200 people living in that village, only 40 have been found - 160 are still missing, mostly women and children," he said.

"We have people reporting to the security post here that they could not hold on to their children, that they were swept away. A lot of people are crying."

Heri Suprapto, the head of Kepuhargo village in the Mentawai islands, told the BBC's Indonesia service that 372 "very weak" people from three villages had been evacuated.

"Transportation has also been prepared for villagers who are in good health whenever evacuation needs to be done. Preparations are also under way to evacuate individuals by using motorbike and small cars."

Indonesia's vice-president and health minister are preparing to travel to the affected region on Wednesday.

'Wall of white water'
 
Rescue workers are preparing to evacuate victims from quake-hit areas Australian officials say they have had no contact with group on board a boat from Australia which had been in the area at the time of the quake.

The AAP news agency said nine Australians and a Japanese man had been on board the Southern Cross, which was on chartered surfing trip.

The area is popular surfing destination, accessible only by boat.

SurfAid, a charity which supports villages in the Mentawai islands, said the boat's skipper was experienced and knew the area well.

"He knew to contact in if he could. So that's why we're extra concerned," said the charity's founder, Dave Jenkins.

Meanwhile, another group of Australians described how their boat was destroyed by a wall of water.

Captain Rick Hallet told Australian media that his boat was anchored off the shore when the waves came.

"We felt a bit of a shake underneath the boat... then within several minutes, we heard an almighty roar," he said.

"I immediately thought of a tsunami and looked out to sea and that's when we saw the wall of white water coming at us," he said.

The wave brought another boat crashing into them and sparked a fire, forcing them to jump into the sea.

Some of those on board were swept up to 200m inland by the wave, he said.

The vast Indonesian archipelago sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire, one of the world's most active areas for earthquakes and volcanoes.

More than 1,000 people were killed by an earthquake off Sumatra in September 2009.

In December 2004, a 9.1-magnitude quake off the coast of Aceh triggered a tsunami in the Indian Ocean that killed a quarter of a million people in 13 countries including Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand.

[Nichi]

And a little southeast...

Indonesia volcano Merapi erupts, thousands evacuated

BBC

Indonesia's most volatile volcano is erupting, spewing plumes of hot ash and hurling rocks into the air.

Officials say Mount Merapi, in central Java, began erupting just before dusk on Tuesday.

Scientists warn the pressure building up beneath its lava dome could lead to one of the most powerful blasts in years.

Thousands of residents living on the volcano's slopes have been evacuated.

However, a further 13,000 people need to be evacuated from within a 10-mile (16km) radius of the volcano, officials say.

Burn injuries
 
Television footage showed thousands of people fleeing the area, some covered in the volcano's white ash which rained from the sky.
 
Many thousands of people have yet to be evacuated It is thought that 5,000 people live on or near the volcano.

The head of one village near the volcano said that many residents were stranded. He said rain loaded with volcanic ash had reduced visibility to just 5m (16ft).

"We are evacuating to the village square, around 14km from Mount Merapi slope. Some of the villagers are still stranded but we received text messages from them, saying that they are OK," Heri Suprapto told the BBC.

A doctor at a nearby hospital said at least six people had been badly burnt by the hot air rushing from the volcano, Reuters reports. One eyewitness said he saw people with bad burns being taken away on stretchers, the agency reports.

There were also reports that a three-month-old baby had died from breathing difficulties after inhaling volcanic material.

On Monday, officials monitoring the volcano raised the alert for Mount Merapi to the highest possible level.

Since then, more than 600 volcanic earthquakes have been recorded around the mountain.

"We heard three explosions around 1800 (1100 GMT) spewing volcanic material as high as 1.5km (one mile) and sending heat clouds down the slopes," government volcanologist Surono, who goes by one name, told AFP.

He warned that pressure was building up behind a lava dome near the crater.

"We hope it will release slowly," he said. "Otherwise, we're looking at a potentially huge eruption, bigger than anything we've seen in years."

He said this eruption was more powerful than the volcano's last blast, in 2006, which killed two people.

In 1930 another powerful eruption wiped out 13 villages, killing more than 1,000 people.

Sacred site
 
Thousands of people living near the volcano have been ordered to move to safer ground, but many are still refusing to leave.

Some are refusing to heed the warnings because they do not want to leave their livestock and properties behind.

Ponco Sumarto, 65, who arrived at a makeshift camp with her two grandchildren, said her children had stayed behind to look after their crops.
"I just have to follow orders to take shelter here for safety, even though I'd rather like to stay at home," the Associated Press news agency quoted her as saying.

BBC Indonesia correspondent Karishma Vaswani says that for many Javanese, Mt Merapi is a sacred site.

Officials say some of the villagers are waiting for the local "gatekeeper" of the volcano to tell them that the increased activity at Mt Merapi is dangerous.

Described as a medicine man, he is believed by many villagers to have a spiritual connection to the volcano.

He has reportedly said he will not leave yet, but is urging villagers to make their way to government shelters, our correspondent says.

[Nichi]

[Nichi]

27 October 2010 Last updated at 09:43 ET
BBC News

'No alert' in Indonesian tsunami

Whole villages were wiped out by the tsunami A crucial link in Indonesia's tsunami warning system was not working during Monday's tsunami because it had been vandalised, says an Indonesian official.

Hundreds of people were killed and many are missing as a result of the tsunami, which was generated by a magnitude 7.7 earthquake off the west coast of Sumatra.

The earthquake unleashed a 3m-high (10ft) wave that crashed into the remote Mentawai islands, levelling a number of villages.

Survivors have said no warning was given.

 Ridwan Jamaluddin, of the Indonesian Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, told the BBC's Indonesian service that two buoys off the Mentawai islands were vandalised and so out of service.

"We don't say they are broken down but they were vandalised and the equipment is very expensive. It cost us five billion rupiah each (£353,000; $560,000).

Another official, from the Indonesian Climatology Agency told the BBC's Indonesian service that both tide gauges and buoys are used to detect a tsunami, but the buoys are more important to generating an early warning.

"To predict a tsunami, we need the data from the buoy and the tide gauge, which is located near the beach. The buoy is more important because it is on the sea, so it will record the wave much quicker that the tide gauge," said the official, named Fauzi.

Difficulties
 
Residents of the Mentawai islands have told the BBC they heard no tsunami warning.

"There was not any siren to warn people in Sikakap [a small town on North Pagai island]," said Ferdinand Salamanang.

"Yes there was a quake and tsunami detection system in our port, but they are broken down. We did not hear any warning this time."

Almost exactly two years ago Indonesia launched its new tsunami early warning centre, designed to give people in coastal areas enough time to escape any waves before they reach land.

1) Recorder on seabed measures pressure and sends data to buoy.

2) Buoy also detects changes in sea level and motion. Tide gauges, usually sited on land, detect tidal changes.

3) Information is transmitted via satellite to ground stations which assess risk of tsunami.

The project was launched after the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami, which hit the country in 2004.

A quarter of a million people on the ocean shores died, more than half of them in the Indonesian province of Aceh, on the northern tip of Sumatra and close to the earthquake's epicentre.

The system was meant to be completed in 2010 but it is still a work in progress, says Tiziana Bonapace, a disaster risk specialist with the UN.

"Earthquake and sea-level monitoring systems are in place, but what has proven more difficult is how to get warnings out to remote areas in time," she told the BBC.

"This remains the weakest link in the system, and unfortunately the tsunami hit one of the farthest outlying islands. Further exacerbating the situation is that buoys do malfunction, and many countries have been experiencing difficulties in this regard."

'Too late'
 
A more difficult challenge, she said, was instilling at the community level an awareness of the potential for disasters and how to prepare for them.

Even if the system had been fully functioning, the earthquake struck so close to the islands that an alert may not have given residents enough time to escape.

"Pagai island is very close to the epicentre, so the waves reached Pagai island in just five or 10 minutes," Ridwan Jamaluddin said.

"Even if the buoy is on, it is still too late to warn the people."

That view is echoed by Andrew Judge of SurfAid International, a humanitarian agency that has worked in the area for 10 years.

"The distance from the epicentre was very short... there's no time to act" on an alert, he told the BBC.

The Mentawai islands are very remote and communications are very difficult, he said. "Those people wouldn't have been reached by an alert."

[Nichi]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/144914.shtml?5day?large#contents

They've had a tough time predicting the track for this unprecedented, East Caribbean, November tropical storm. It has already caused millions of dollars of damage and killed 14 on St Lucia, and for the past few days, has appeared to stall as it begins to make its northeast turn over Haiti and Jamaica. They are very concerned about its upcoming passage over the already earthquake-ravaged Haiti, whose forest and infrastructure have been taken out by its previous, relatively-recent disasters.


From Dr. Jeff Masters' Weather Blog, www.wunderground.com -

As this record-breaking third busiest Atlantic hurricane season in history unfolded, I marveled that earthquake-ravaged Haiti managed to dodge significant rain-making tropical storms throughout the peak months of August, September, and October. Cruel fate will not allow Haiti to escape the entire season unscathed, though, as a late-season November storm already proven to be a killer--Tomas--takes aim at Haiti. Tomas has struggled mightily over the past few days, and is now a tropical depression. However, even if it does not reach hurricane strength, Tomas is still likely to bring heavy rains capable of causing disastrous flooding in defenseless Haiti. It doesn't take much rain to cause a flooding disaster in Haiti--ordinary seasonal heavy rains have killed 23 people in southern Haiti over the past month, including twelve people in Port-au-Prince this past weekend. According to the Associated Press, most of last weekend's deaths occurred when surging rivers burst through houses built in ravines. With the soils already saturated from last weekend's rains, the stage is set in Haiti for a significant flooding disaster capable of causing heavy loss of life. I believe it is 30% likely that Tomas will stay far enough west of the Haiti earthquake zone so that rains will be limited to 1 - 4 inches to the region, causing only modest flooding problems and little or no loss of life. More likely (40% chance) is the possibility of major flooding due to 4 - 8 inches of rains. Finally, I expect a 30% chance that heavier rains of 5 - 20 inches over Haiti will cause catastrophic flooding like experienced in 2008's four hurricanes. Potential flooding disasters are not possible just in the earthquake zone, but also in northern Haiti and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. So, keep praying for the people of Haiti, they need all the help they can get.

Haiti's hurricane history

In many ways, the hurricane season of 2008 was the cruelest ever experienced in Haiti. Four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on the impoverished nation. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country. Particularly hard-hit was Gonaives, the fourth largest city. According to reliefweb.org, Haiti suffered 793 killed, with 310 missing and another 593 injured. The hurricanes destroyed 22,702 homes and damaged another 84,625. About 800,000 people were affected--8% of Haiti's total population. The flood wiped out 70% of Haiti's crops, resulting in dozens of deaths of children due to malnutrition in the months following the storms. Damage was estimated at over $1 billion, the costliest natural disaster in Haitian history, prior to the 2010 earthquake. The damage amounted to over 5% of the country's $17 billion GDP, a staggering blow for a nation so poor.

Two thousand and eight was only one of many years hurricane have brought untold misery to Haiti. Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 passed just north of the country as a tropical storm, dumping 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The resulting floods killed over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes . Unfortunately for Haiti, its name appears several times on this list. Hurricane Flora killed over 8000 people in 1963, making it the 6th most deadly hurricane ever. An unnamed 1935 storm killed over 2000, and Hurricane Hazel killed over 1000 in 1954. More recently, Hurricane Gordon killed over 1000 Haitians in 1994, and in 1998, Hurricane Georges killed over 400 while destroying 80% of all the crops in the country.

Surprisingly, only six major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have struck Haiti since 1851. The strongest hurricane to hit Haiti was Hurricane Cleo of 1964, which struck the southwestern peninsula as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, killing 192 people. Haiti's only other Category 4 storm was Hurricane Flora of 1963, which had 145 mph winds when it struck the southwestern peninsula, killing 8000. No Category 5 hurricanes have hit Haiti since 1851. The most recent Category 3 hurricane to hit Haiti was Hurricane David of 1979, which crossed northern Haiti as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds after hitting the Dominican Republic as a Category 5 hurricane with 170 mph winds. David weakened quickly to a tropical storm after crossing into Haiti, as caused no deaths in the country. The other major hurricanes to strike Haiti were Hurricane Inez of 1966, which hit southern Haiti as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, killing 480 people; Hurricane Katie of 1955, which hit near the Haiti/Dominican Republic border with 115 mph winds, killing 7; and Hurricane Five of 1873, which hit the southwestern peninsula with 115 mph winds.

Why does Haiti suffer a seemingly disproportionate number of flooding disasters? The answer in that in large part, these are not natural disasters--they are human-caused disasters. Haiti is the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere. With oil too expensive for the impoverished nation, charcoal from burnt trees has provided 85% or more of the energy in Haiti for decades. As a result, Haiti's 8 million poor have relentlessly hunted and chopped down huge amounts of forest, leaving denuded mountain slopes that rainwater washes down unimpeded. Back in 1980, Haiti still had 25% of its forests, allowing the nation to withstand heavy rain events like 1979's Category 3 Hurricane David without loss of life. But as of 2004, only 1.4% of Haiti's forests remained. Jeanne and Gordon were not even hurricanes--merely strong tropical storms--when they stuck Haiti, but the almost total lack of tree cover contributed to the devastating floods that killed thousands. And it doesn't even take a tropical storm to devastate Haiti--in May of 2004, three days of heavy rains from a tropical disturbance dumped more than 18 inches of rain in the mountains, triggering floods that killed over 2600 people.

What can be done to reduce these human-worsened natural disasters? Education and poverty eradication are critical to improving things. In addition, reforestation efforts and promotion of alternative fuels are needed.

In the past two decades, the U.S. Agency for International Development has planted some 60 million trees, while an estimated 10 to 20 million of these are cut down each year, according to the USAID director in Haiti, David Adams. If you're looking for a promising way to make a charitable donation to help Haitian flood victims, considering supporting the Lambi Fund of Haiti, which is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level to help avert future flood disasters.

[Nichi]

Death Toll From Cholera in Haiti Reaches 900
Haiti's cholera toll has risen to more than 900, as the outbreak showed no sign of abating just two weeks ahead of presidential elections.
Published on Monday, November 15, 2010 by The Telegraph/UK

[Nichi]

A very cool video-graphic showing the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season -

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=595&MediaTypeID=2