Topic: Around the Globe in Real Time

[Nichi]

Irma left Barbuda, one of the Lesser Antilles Islands:

- 1 fatality confirmed so far on Barbuda (an infant), number might rise as survey is completed
- 95% of structures suffered some damage
- 60% of residents are now homeless
- Prime Minister says country will need outside assistance to rebuild, ''devastation is unlike anything I have ever seen, Barbuda is pretty much uninhabitable''
- PM - "I felt like crying... one of the worst feelings I have ever felt in my entire life"
- Also said that if Jose threatens the island, it will need to be fully evacuated; he expects it might be needed regardless

- Most resident interviews mentioned that this is the absolute worst experience in their lives, including people in their 60s and 70s who have been through a LOT of storms. Several people recalled having to tie themselves to roofs or doors to keep them from flying off. A number mentioned that if fatalities stay as low as expected on the island, it will be nothing short of a miracle. Almost all pleaded to be evacuated ASAP to Antigua, as any further storm will find them with virtually no shelter and no resources.

[Nichi]

Here are the Lesser Antilles Islands, for those a little rusty on geography (like me):

[Nichi]

[Nichi]

https://youtu.be/9gVFeGLROmA
<span data-s9e-mediaembed="youtube" style="display:inline-block;width:100%;max-width:640px"><span style="display:block;overflow:hidden;position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%"><iframe allowfullscreen="" loading="lazy" scrolling="no" style="background:url(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/9gVFeGLROmA/hqdefault.jpg) 50% 50% / cover;border:0;height:100%;left:0;position:absolute;width:100%" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9gVFeGLROmA"></iframe></span></span><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/9gVFeGLROmA" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/9gVFeGLROmA</a>

[Michael]

I heard a climate change specialist talk on these hurricanes, and he said the global warming 'signal' in these events is only slight. Perhaps their intensity and size could be linked to global warming, and definitely the behaviour of Harvey as it crossed land was due to warmer water along the coast, but in general, the pattern of increased numbers of cyclones is an historic and natural feature. He expects this phase will pass and there will be many years of significant reduction in the frequency of these storms.

By contract, he said the heat wave events that are occurring more frequently and with higher temperatures contains a very strong signal of global warming.

[Nichi]

I think the phase will pass too - I just hope I'll get to see it in my lifetime.

[Firestarter]

I don't know. Irma is about to hit. I have many members from Florida. The west is on fire. The smoke out here has been thick and unhealthy.

Then the earthquake in Mexico. All at once. Its one thing after another.

Will it get better? I wish. Do I think it will? I don't know.

My sons girlfriend has family in Florida. Its a tense time. But I can't help but think the earth is trying to speak to us.

We have to change our ways.

[Nichi]

Yes.

[Nichi]

Stumbled upon a video of Irma taken as it was going over St. Thomas (Virgin Islands). The video-maker was filming from a very secure location (the Ritz-Carlton), so his scope/range was limited, but I think you get enough of a feel of what sustained winds of 170-190 mph are like. This for many hours. The most I've ever endured first-hand was 90-100 sustained, and I don't ever want to exceed that experience. I can't even imagine how anyone could endure the likes of Irma.


https://www.facebook.com/drew.alston.9/videos/vb.1031410716/10211811176168129/?type=3&theater

[erik]

I watched a bit of CNN's coverage of Irma's activities. All I can say, is that Trump has delivered apparently a massive blow to journalism as well. These people are selling now emotions rather than news. There was an endless chatter about what may happen, what could transpire, etc. All that while the storm was over 200 miles out to the sea.

Sheer bollocks.

[Nichi]

Agreed! We don't know which end is up.

[Nichi]

When this is all said and done, I'd like to see an oceanographer or geologist explain this negative surge in Long Island, Bahamas. I knew that this can occur with tsunamis, but I didn't know it could occur with hurricanes. (And how foolish these people were for walking around on the dry bed...)

Turn sound down - poor quality:


https://youtu.be/rssstRzNfI8

[Nichi]

I watched a bit of CNN's coverage of Irma's activities. All I can say, is that Trump has delivered apparently a massive blow to journalism as well. These people are selling now emotions rather than news. There was an endless chatter about what may happen, what could transpire, etc. All that while the storm was over 200 miles out to the sea.

Sheer bollocks.

I want to clarify my agreement about what Trump initiated with his concept of "fake news". With that I agree, and I believe in the end it will create denial and disbelief in times we should really be paying attention. If I thought he was clever enough, I'd think he was a genius to have set that up. 
 
I just watched a little of the live CNN coverage. That sensational reporting, full of hyperbole, always goes on with these storms - the great anticipation, and wanting to be "live" on the scene before the storm blows them off their feet. On the one hand. On the other, the 2 journalists manning the thing right now are on the wrong side of Florida to be seeing much action. The forecast was originally ultra-concerned about the East Coast of Florida, though they qualified that, given the width of the storm, the West side would see havoc too. The two CNN guys right now are on the Eastside.

But Irma stayed longer over Cuba than they anticipated, and the track altered a few advisories ago, to the West side. So it's the opposite of what they originally predicted: the West side is going to get the worst, though indeed the East side will see dangerous effects too. If I was placing my journalists at the "hot" spots right now, it would be Key West, Naples, Fort Myers, and on Sunday proper, Tampa. (Again, not to say that the East won't feel disastrous effects.)

At the 5am advisory, this could all change again.

[Nichi]

And incidentally, I was reading the Navy site, and they have put New Orleans on the list of consideration. They didn't rate the risk very high, but they are semi-preparing for that westerly turn too.

[Nichi]

Hard to find a cogent Live Stream because of the dark, but there is this one:


https://youtu.be/JM7U0bgUxbw

The upper left cam is somewhere in Key West, and that street-surge has now overflowed the sidewalk, whereas just an hour ago the curb was apparent. So it is happening.