Apologies for being remiss in the last month or so in this thread. I missed reporting the swath of tornadoes, flooding, and fatalities across the US mainland, a few 7.2 quakes worldwide, the continued eruptions in Iceland, and more quakes along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
The Atlantic/Eastern Pacific Cyclone Season has begun, with its first entry (Agatha) killing 99+ people in Guatemala.
NOAA has released its forecast for 2010:
~14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
•8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
•3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
Rationale:
•Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
•Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
•High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100527_hurricaneoutlook.html
