And yes, Obama won't get re-elected --- as he very well shouldn't.
This was the same problem we had here in Aust. Kevin Rudd came in to power with a landslide of hopes and expectations for change, which almost all failed to materialise.
The Right reclaimed much of their party support base through the usual bullshitting and lunatic ravings. The intelligent voters were left with a real problem: they were completely disillusioned with Rudd, yet the last thing they wanted was a return to the Right parties.
The problem was that although Rudd had failed to deliver on expectations of change, he had at least brought in sensible and responsible management of a host of small government matters. You did feel that the lunatics were no longer in charge. What was disappointing was that on the major issues, he had been indecisive and lacking courage.
This left them with a choice - vote for those who promised to do a lot and delivered little, or the those who were promising to do nothing and hand control of the prison back to the criminals.
What we also knew was that Rudd himself knew this - that although he lost support of the progressives, they would never vote for the opposition. What they did was to shift to the Greens.
But this was a strategic mistake. He thought he had to win across the 'middle' ground of voters who could swing either way, but instead he lost integrity, and even the middle ground admire courage and integrity, even if they don't quite agree.
Strength of conviction and willingness to fight for it, are qualities all people admire - it is a winning posture. Dissembling and fumbling, despite words of principle, are soon sniffed out and rejected by the voters.
The problem, however, remains: George Bush came across as a strong conviction leader who knew how to upset people and go for what he believed in. The intelligent voter has a choice - disappointment or total catastrophe.
