Topic: Climate Catastrophe

[Michael]

OK, let's get a grip on this. Let's assume we all know what's happening.

There are two primary questions:
1. How long have we got?
2. What can we do?

Between 2020 and 2022, in the USA alone, over 3 million people moved away from high to low risk areas. One of the greatest mass movements of people in our times. That means away from coastal, river and low lying areas, away from the southern heat states, away from fire risk - north, up high and out of the woods. Now we are seeing the fires again devastating the east coast of the US and Canada. Cyclones and tornadoes (even fire-tornadoes) of increasing intensity, and extreme heat waves... we all know - the list of 'it's here now' events are escalating.

How long have we got?
It's happening, but so far not to everyone - not to enough people to say it's a massive public emergency - more localised emergencies. How long before vast areas of the continents become uninhabitable due to storm surges and heat? How long before we see hundreds of millions of people migrating across boarders, sea and land?

I have not seen any definitive time line, because the matter hinges on tipping points. Personally, I'd say three years, five at most.

What can we do?
Adaption. Move to safer areas of your country. Insulate your home. GET AC! That will buy you time. Shopping centres, libraries and government buildings are already preparing for a flood of heat refugees, and ramping up their AC systems.

Unfortunately, all levels of government in every reasonable nation, despite having explicit manuals on adaption, are essentially ignoring this, because it is politically too difficult. Except for one nation: China.

China has studied the situation and made a critical decision. To rein in their emissions would cripple their global-factory-floor, economic advantage, so instead, knowing the government would topple if the people suffered too much, they have opted for adaption. They have constructed the largest water infrastructure program ever seen, to transport water from the wet south to the dry north. They have built massive sea walls at every coastal and river city. They have built vast dams. And much more - they know what's coming, and their emissions are greater than everyone else together, so avoiding catastrophe is impossible.

Resilience: this is the buzz word the experts are using - community and national resilience.

The problem with adaption is how far will that get us? What we face is nothing less than civilisation collapse. The climate crises in the pipeline are now embedded, no matter what we do. The will of all nations, individually or collectively, to act decisively to halt the escalation of global warming consequences, is palpably absent. We're all in for it.

Let's be clear here, every precious cultural identity will be rendered meaningless as millions flood across national borders - more than guns can stop.

Spiritual identities? There is only one spiritual quality that will be helpful - flexibility to meet any demand, any situation. Cling to nothing and be as clever at surviving as possible. We can't anticipate the local conditions, but we can have a solid pair of strong shoes - we are going to need them.

[Bornamber]

That doesn’t bode well for people like me … who no longer wear shoes.

There has been a mass migration of people INTO Florida. It’s going to be interesting because what people don’t realize yet is…(I’ve lived here my whole life … I recognize some changes)…..the storms are lasting longer and dropping a lot more water. = more flooding….in areas that aren’t equipped to handle flooding. Also the high construction is only going to increase the heat and lack of ability for the land to absorb water.  It’s already happening. 

We are very well equipped with AC but are those areas not equipped with AC … how will the previous constructed power grids handle all the additional strain?

[Michael]

Disabled people are going to be especially vulnerable, particularly if they live in high risk areas. Other vulnerable groups are indigenous and impoverished.

People moving into Florida are like those in Australia migrating to the north-eastern coastal areas. Someone recently said that the greatest problem for humanity is stupidity. The IPCC has already identified C&S as extremely endangered (Cities and Settlements, along coast and river).

The people migrating away from climate risk areas are the early awakened ones - climate educated and wealthy. They make up a large group in the US simply because it has such a huge population.

My understanding of Florida is that it is mostly low-lying and exposed to Atlantic hurricanes, meaning storm surges and flooding. If you can, get out of there.

[Firestarter]

Where I am in WA is a desert, but its summers are not like AZ was. Those are brutal. The Colorado River is drying up. I do not know what those states will do if they run out of water. They try to not sound the alarm, but citizens are not stupid. That area around AZ may be the most vulnerable yet.

[Michael]

A little more examination of 'How long have we got?'

Scientists speak of the potential for either gradual, quick or dramatic. These all refer to how much time we will get to adapt. The dramatic scenario relates to tipping points - this is less likely but definitely possible, like a polar flip or even a 'true polar wander' that disrupts the earth's radiation protection. We'll all be in very deep shit if any dramatic catastrophe hits us.

Otherwise, what we are talking about are 'events'.

Regardless of a gradual or quick escalations into major and indefinite climate transformation that renders vast earth areas uninhabitable and civilisation collapse, what we are currently seeing is an increase in the footprint and intensity of destructive climate events.

When I speculate, as a personal view, that we have three years, I'm referring to the rate and impact of these events reaching a threshold of societal impact. Some speculate that will take ten years, while others say the primary threshold will fall around 2050. My view is based on gut feeling, looking at what is already happening, and the cascading sequence timeline. Scientists have to be very conservative in projections due to aggressive scrutiny by the denialists, though many scientists say that we are already over the 1.5° threshold and 3° is now unavoidably embedded.

A recent US study commissioned by the Biden administration said that the greatest misunderstanding by the public, which is resisting adaptation measures, is the belief that future climate events will be similar in nature to past events. Totally untrue - we've not seen anything before, like what is coming.

Already we see these amplified events, and deaths from them, are increasing, but the most health destructive are heat waves, and these are recurring at alarming rates. In the last year many urban areas across the world reached 50°C (122°F), with exposed highways and large carparks over 80°C (176°F).

So what I expect to see is a steady upthrust of destruction from these events, but leaving many areas unscathed such that insufficient public outrage will leave government policies in the hands of the fossil fuel industries. Studies have found that calamitous events don't change public policy.

One's aim is to manoeuvre to reduce the risk of being trapped in one of these events.

My prediction of three years is that by then, the devastating impact on society, including supply lines and shortages of medicines and food, will reach a level where local communities across the globe will need to self-organise to survive.

[Michael]

I recently read something that could explain why the climate timeline is not being overtly discussed. It is due to what happened in 2023, especially the last part of that year. Global temperatures rocketed up so high, that scientists were thrown into confusion. The question they were confronted with, and which still hasn't been solved, is, was this an outlier event and temperatures would return to predictive modelling, or was this the new trajectory?

It terrified climate scientists because they could not identify why the temperatures were so high - there were many contributing factors they could understand, but these did not add up to a satisfactory explanation. Thus, what were they missing?

The difference between these two scenarios is between years and decades in the modelling. That, I reflect, is why I was getting the gut feeling of three years - I was subconsciously collating the 2023 data, and projecting that forward. Scientists who were alarmed, as now feeling there is a high possibility that 2023 was an outlier, and that, tentatively, data is showing a return to modelling. But they remain extremely nervous about this, and are hoping the Pacific will produce a La Niña cooling event in the remainder of 2024. It is currently in equilibrium - waiting to see which way it will tip.

[Firestarter]

The scientific articles vary. We have 7-11 years to change our ways. Or we are going to suffer greatly. Like in the US, this Project 2025 wants to end weather reports to keep us in the dark. Cut regulations. It’s totally destructive. The entire planet, all nations need to come together and make agreements or we are going to suffer hard for it.

[Firestarter]

I found this. You might want to see this.


https://youtu.be/libCgvCET2U?si=draRkE7OpZoDo6MR

[Firestarter]

So I did actually do a search and found locally we have a group called Citizens Climate Lobby. I went to their page and they got like 44k on it. They have volunteers calling around trying to get folks to vote. I did find a local group they have, and it's good they see that Trump is a huge threat to climate change. I'll check it out.

[nikos]

I think the climate change came because of the evolution of technology..

I think we lost and are losing our connection with nature (steadily)

It's sometimes all messed together, together with the Eagle's plans...

God knows we are self destructive......

[Firestarter]

I think the climate change came because of the evolution of technology..

I think we lost and are losing our connection with nature (steadily)

It's sometimes all messed together, together with the Eagle's plans...

God knows we are self destructive......

Technology aggravates it. But the Industrial Revolution I feel the beginning. Cars. Factories. The livestock industry a huge factor. But technology made us more desensitized, to the point folks are cutting themselves off from nature.

[nikos]

I don't disagree but something happened during the coronavirus that had to do with man/human - not for good..... like the beginning of the end, literally or metaphorically......

[Firestarter]

I don't disagree but something happened during the coronavirus that had to do with man/human - not for good..... like the beginning of the end, literally or metaphorically......

Yes! 2020 a very pivotal moment. I have said about that year, for some time, hindsight is 20/20.