Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[Nichi]

Oy. No it doesnt. I dont 'feel' like its gonna be another Ike this year, but when it comes to storms I dunno. Maybe its just me being hopeful. I never wanna see say, another katrina in my lifetime if I can help it.

They've developed a habit now of covering up, so we likely won't "see" it. Last year, for example, there was a news blackout over Hurricane Ike, and answers to important questions, like how a "Category 2" storm behaved like a Category 4, got washed away, along with the bodies on Bolivar Peninsula.   I'm hoping Obama's administration will do better with all that.

[Firestarter]

In Texas, drought means conserving every last drop



 This view from Highway 71 northwest of Bee Cave, Texas, shows boat houses and docks grounded along the … By JOHN McFARLAND, Associated Press Writer John Mcfarland, Associated Press Writer – 1 hr 1 min ago
DALLAS – Off-duty police officers are patrolling streets, looking for people illegally watering their lawns and gardens. Residents are encouraged to stealthily rat out water scofflaws on a 24-hour hot line. One Texas lake has dipped so low that stolen cars dumped years ago are peeking up through the waterline.

The nation's most drought-stricken state is deep-frying under relentless 100-degree days and waterways are drying up, especially in the hardest-hit area covering about 350 miles across south-central Texas. That's making folks worried about the water supply — and how long it might last.

"The water table's fallin' and fallin' and fallin,' like a whole lot of other people around here," said Wendell McLeod, general manager of Liberty Hill Water Supply Corp. and a 60-year resident of the town northwest of Austin. "This is the worst I can recall seeing it. I tell you, it's just pretty bleak."

There are 230 Texas public water systems under mandatory water restrictions, including those in and near San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Austin. Another 60 or so have asked for voluntary cutbacks. Water levels are down significantly in lakes, rivers and wells around Texas.

Liberty Hill's Web site urges its 1,400 or so residents in all-red letters to stop using unnecessary water with this plea: "If we follow these strict guidelines, we may have drinking water." The town's shortage eased some with the arrival this week of 35,000 gallons a day from a nearby water system, but residents are still worried.

According to drought statistics released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 77 of Texas' 254 counties are in extreme or exceptional drought, the most severe categories. No other state in the continental U.S. has even one area in those categories. John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist at Texas A&M University, said he expects harsh drought conditions to last at least another month.

In the bone-dry San Antonio-Austin area, the conditions that started in 2007 are being compared to the devastating drought of the 1950s. There have been 36 days of 100 degrees or more this year in an area where it's usually closer to 12.

Among the most obvious problems are the lack of water in Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan near Austin, two massive reservoirs along the Colorado River that provide drinking water for more than 1 million people and also are popular boating and swimming spots. Streams and tributaries that feed the lakes have "all but dried up," according to the Lower Colorado River Authority.

Lake Travis is more empty than full, down 54 percent. All but one of the 12 boating ramps are closed because they no longer reach the water, and the last may go soon. The receding waters have even revealed old stolen cars shoved into the lake years ago, authorities said.

There's no threat to the area's drinking water supply, Rose said, but there are increased boating hazards from the "sometimes islands" that pop up when the water's low, increased risk of wildfires, and more interactions between humans and wildlife.

"We're seeing deer and armadillo and other animals in places we don't typically see them," he said. "They're starving for water and food."

At the Oasis, a popular restaurant with a deck overlooking Lake Travis, the islands are even starting to grow heavy vegetation.

"You can see all the white on the rocks where the waterline used to be," said Becca Torbert, a server at the restaurant who says the boat traffic is down, but the water's down even more.

San Antonio, which relies on the Edwards Aquifer for its water, is enduring its driest 23-month period since weather data was recorded starting in 1885, according to the National Weather Service. The aquifer's been hovering just above 640 feet deep, and if it dips below that the city will issue its harshest watering restrictions yet.

The city's not just sitting around, though. A total of 30 off-duty officers and other employees are working overtime to patrol the city looking for people illegally watering. Since April, about 1,500 people have been cited and ordered to pay fines ranging from $50 to over $1,000. Residents also are encouraged to rat out water scofflaws on the 24-hour Water Waste Hot Line.

"We don't go out in a car with sirens blazing or anything like that, but we do take the report and send out a letter saying 'You've been reported for not following water rules,'" said Anne Hayden, spokeswoman for the San Antonio Water System.

There have been smatterings of light rain in the area this week, but not enough to make much difference. But hopefully, the end is in sight. Victor Murphy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said an El Nino system is developing in the Pacific Ocean. That phenomenon is usually followed by increased rainfall in Texas in the fall.

McLeod, from Liberty City, hopes his little town can hang on till then.

"I don't know how we can," he said. "I try not to look too far ahead."

[erik]

Sun seems to have made up its mind.

World will warm faster than predicted in next five years, study warns

Duncan Clark

New estimate based on the forthcoming upturn in solar activity and El Niño southern oscillation cycles is expected to silence global warming sceptics

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/27/world-warming-faster-study



The world faces a new period of record-breaking temperatures as the sun's activity increases, leading the planet to heat up significantly faster than scientists had predicted over the next five years, according to a new study.

The hottest year on record was 1998, and the relatively cool years since have led to some global-warming sceptics claiming that temperatures have levelled off or started to decline. However, the new research firmly rejects that argument.

The work is the first to assess the combined impact on global temperature of four factors: human influences such as CO2 and aerosol emissions; heating from the sun; volcanic activity; and the El Niño southern oscillation, the phenomenon by which the Pacific Ocean flips between warmer and cooler states every few years.

It shows that the relative stability in global temperatures observed in the last seven years is explained primarily by the decline in incoming sunlight associated with the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle, together with a lack of strong El Niño events. These trends have masked the warming caused by CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

As solar activity picks up again in the coming years, the new research suggests, temperatures will shoot up at 150% of the rate predicted by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The research, to be published in a forthcoming edition of Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by Judith Lean of the US Naval Research Laboratory and David Rind of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Lean said: "Our paper shows that the absence of warming observed in the last decade is no evidence that the climate isn't responding to man-made greenhouse gases. On the contrary, the study again confirms that we're seeing a long-term warming trend driven by human activity, with natural factors affecting the precise shape of that temperature rise."

Lean and Rind's research also sheds light on the extreme average temperature observed in 1998. The new paper confirms that the temperature spike of that year was caused primarily by a very strong El Niño episode. A similar episode occurring in the future could be expected to create a spike of equivalent magnitude on top of an even higher baseline, thus shattering the 1998 record.

Furthermore, the study comes within days of announcements from climatologists that the world is entering a new El Niño warm spell. This development suggests that temperature rises in the next year could be even more marked than Lean and Rind's paper suggests. A particularly hot autumn and winter could add to the pressure on policy-makers to reach a meaningful deal at December's climate-change negotiations in Copenhagen.

Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado said: "If El Niño continues to develop, it's quite possible that the Copenhagen meeting will take place during one of the warmest Decembers in the global record."

He added that the paper was a reminder that temperature patterns observed over periods of just a few years can be misleading when it comes to the bigger picture: "To claim that global temperatures have cooled since 1998 and therefore that man-made climate change isn't happening is a bit like saying spring has gone away when you have a mild week after a scorching Easter."

Temperature highs and lows

1998

Hottest year of the millennium

Caused by a major El Niño event. The climate phenomenon results from warming of the tropical Pacific and causes heatwaves, droughts and flooding around the world. The 1998 event caused 16% of the world's coral reefs to die.

1957

Most sunspots in a year since 1778

The sun's activity waxes and wanes on an 11-year cycle. The late 1950s saw a peak in activity and were relatively warm years for the period.

1601

Coldest year of the millennium

Ash from the huge eruption the previous year of a Peruvian volcano called Huaynaputina blocked out the sun. The volcanic winter caused Russia's worst famine, with a third of the population dying, and disrupted agriculture from China to France.

[erik]

Human activity is driving Earth's 'sixth great extinction event'

Population growth, pollution and invasive species are having a disastrous effect on species in the southern hemisphere, a major review by conservationists warns

Ian Sample, science correspondent

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/28/species-extinction-hotspots-australia

Earth is experiencing its "sixth great extinction event" with disease and human activity taking a devastating toll on vulnerable species, according to a major review by conservationists.

Much of the southern hemisphere is suffering particularly badly, and Australia, New Zealand and neighbouring Pacific islands may become the extinction hot spots of the world, the report warns.

Ecosystems in Polynesia, Micronesia and Melanesia need urgent and effective conservation policies, or the region's already poor record on extinctions will worsen significantly.

Researchers trawled 24,000 published reports to compile information on the native flora and fauna of Australasia and the Pacific islands, which have six of the most biodiverse regions on the planet. Their report identifies six causes driving species to extinction, almost all linked in some way to human activity.

"Our region has the notorious distinction of having possibly the worst extinction record on Earth," said Richard Kingsford, an environmental scientist at the University of New South Wales in Sydney and lead author of the report. "We have an amazing natural environment, but so much of it is being destroyed before our eyes. Species are being threatened by habitat loss and degradation, invasive species, climate change, over-exploitation, pollution and wildlife disease."

The review, published in the journal Conservation Biology, highlights destruction and degradation of ecosystems as the main threat. In Australia, agriculture has altered or destroyed half of all woodland and forests. Around 70% of the remaining forest has been damaged by logging. Loss of habitats is behind 80% of threatened species, the report claims.

Invasive animals and plants have devastated native species on many Pacific islands. The Guam Micronesian kingfisher is thought to be extinct in the wild following the introduction of the brown tree snake. The impact of invasive species is often compounded by pollution and burgeoning human populations on the islands, which have outstripped their capacity to deal with waste. Plastics and fishing gear are an ongoing danger.

The impact of humans on wildlife is likely to increase in Australasia and the Pacific islands. By 2050, the population of Australia is expected to have risen by 35%, and New Zealand by 25%, while Papua New Guinea faces a 76% increase and New Caledonia 49%.

More than 2,500 invasive plant species have colonised Australia and New Zealand, competing for sunlight and nutrients. Many have been introduced by governments, horticulturists and hunters. In addition, the report says, average temperatures in Australia have increased, in line with climate change predictions, forcing some species towards Antarctica and others to higher, cooler ground.

The report highlights several studies that point to serious threats from diseases such as avian malaria and the chytrid fungus, linked to declines in frog populations. An infectious facial cancer is spreading rapidly among Tasmanian devils and populations of the world's largest marsupial predator are believed to have fallen by more than 60% as a result.

Plants have also fared badly: a root fungus deliberately introduced into Australia has destroyed several species.

The report sets out a raft of recommendations to slow the decline by introducing laws to limit land clearing, logging and mining; restricting deliberate introduction of invasive species; reducing carbon emissions and pollution; and limiting fisheries. It raises particular concerns about bottom trawling, and the use of cyanide and dynamite, and calls for early-warning systems to pick up diseases in the wild.

"The burden on the environment is going to get worse unless we are a lot smarter about reducing our footprint," said Kingsford. "Unless we get this right, future generations will surely be paying more in quality of life and the environment. And our region will continue its terrible reputation of leading the world in the extinction of plants and animals."

Dead and buried

Cretaceous-Tertiary 65m years ago, the dinosaurs were wiped out in a mass extinction that killed nearly a fifth of land vertebrate families, 16% of marine families and nearly half of all marine animals. Thought to have been caused by asteroid impact that created Chicxulub crater in the Yucatan.

End of Triassic About 200m years ago, lava floods erupting from the central Atlantic are thought to have created lethal global warming, killing off more than a fifth of all marine families and half of marine genera.

Permian-Triassic The worst mass extinction took place 250m years ago, killing 95% of all species. Experts disagree on the cause.

Late Devonian About 360m years ago, a fifth of marine families were wiped out, alongside more than half of all marine genera. Cause unknown.

Ordovician-Silurian About 440m years ago, a quarter of all marine families were wiped out by fluctuating sea levels as glaciers formed and melted. again.

[Michael]

The Republicans in USA and the Coalition in Australia - they just don't get it.

We are in a small eddy of time, where the people who can make a critical difference are in a position to do so, but are being hounded by a lunatic mob of idiots who just don't see the tidal wave. They still think it's a game of politics.

El Nino is coming, and the sun spots - the seriousness of out situation is approaching in no uncertain terms. The fools who still want to play with humanity's future in some fantasy of power gamesmanship, are doomed to humiliation. And that includes the Islamic, Hindu, Jewish and Christian extremists.

The likes of Obama just have to survive for another year or two at the most. After that, our species will have to grow up.

The battle will then be between competition for deck chairs on the Titanic - a deadly game - or cooperation and realisation that we can make the best of this if we use our intelligence. I can't see that outcome. It appears to me that it could go either way.

[Firestarter]

The Time to Act is Now
From EcoBuddhism.org, The Buddhist Channel, May 1, 2009

A Buddhist Declaration on Climate Change

Carmel, NY (USA) -- Today we live in a time of great crisis, confronted by the gravest challenge that humanity has ever faced: the ecological consequences of our own collective karma. The scientific consensus is overwhelming: human activity is triggering environmental breakdown on a planetary scale. Global warming, in particular, is happening much faster than previously predicted, most obviously at the North Pole.

For hundreds of thousands of years, the Arctic Ocean has been covered by an area of sea-ice as large as Australia—but now this is melting rapidly. In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast that the Arctic might be free of summer sea ice by 2100. It is now apparent that this could occur within a decade or two. Greenland’s vast ice-sheet is also melting more quickly than expected. The rise in sea-level this century will be at least one meter—enough to flood many coastal cities and vital rice-growing areas such as the Mekong Delta in Vietnam.

Glaciers all over the world are receding quickly. If current economic policies continue, the glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau, source of the great rivers that provide water for billions of people in Asia, will disappear within 30 years. Severe drought and crop failures are already affecting Australia and Northern China. Major reports—from the IPCC, United Nations, European Union, and International Union for Conservation of Nature—agree that, without a collective change of direction, dwindling supplies of water, food and other resources could create famine conditions, resource battles, and mass migration by mid-century—perhaps by 2030, according to the U.K.’s chief scientific advisor.

Global warming plays a major role in other ecological crises, including the loss of many plant and animal species that share this Earth with us. Oceanographers report that half the carbon released by burning fossil fuels has been absorbed by the oceans, increasing their acidity by about 30%. Acidification is disrupting calcification of shells and coral reefs, as well as threatening plankton growth, the source of the food chain for most life in the sea.

Eminent biologists and U.N. reports concur that “business-as-usual” will drive half of all species on Earth to extinction within this century. Collectively, we are violating the first precept—“do not harm living beings”—on the largest possible scale. And we cannot foresee the biological consequences for human life when so many species that invisibly contribute to our own well-being vanish from the planet.

Many scientists have concluded that the survival of human civilization is at stake. We have reached a critical juncture in our biological and social evolution. There has never been a more important time in history to bring the resources of Buddhism to bear on behalf of all living beings. The four noble truths provide a framework for diagnosing our current situation and formulating appropriate guidelines—because the threats and disasters we face ultimately stem from the human mind, and therefore require profound changes within our minds. If personal suffering stems from craving and ignorance—from the three poisons of greed, ill will, and delusion—the same applies to the suffering that afflicts us on a collective scale. Our ecological emergency is a larger version of the perennial human predicament. Both as individuals and as a species, we suffer from a sense of self that feels disconnected not only from other people but from the Earth itself. As Thich Nhat Hanh has said, “We are here to awaken from the illusion of our separateness.” We need to wake up and realize that the Earth is our mother as well as our home—and in this case the umbilical cord binding us to her cannot be severed. When the Earth becomes sick, we become sick, because we are part of her.

Our present economic and technological relationships with the rest of the biosphere are unsustainable. To survive the rough transitions ahead, our lifestyles and expectations must change. This involves new habits as well as new values. The Buddhist teaching that the overall health of the individual and society depends upon inner well-being, and not merely upon economic indicators, helps us determine the personal and social changes we must make.

Individually, we must adopt behaviors that increase everyday ecological awareness and reduce our “carbon footprint”. Those of us in the advanced economies need to retrofit and insulate our homes and workplaces for energy efficiency; lower thermostats in winter and raise them in summer; use high efficiency light bulbs and appliances; turn off unused electrical appliances; drive the most fuel-efficient cars possible, and reduce meat consumption in favor of a healthy, environmentally-friendly plant-based diet.

These personal activities will not by themselves be sufficient to avert future calamity. We must also make institutional changes, both technological and economic. We must “de-carbonize” our energy systems as quickly as feasible by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources that are limitless, benign and harmonious with nature. We especially need to halt the construction of new coal plants, since coal is by far the most polluting and most dangerous source of atmospheric carbon. Wisely utilized, wind power, solar power, tidal power, and geothermal power can provide all the electricity that we require without damaging the biosphere. Since up to a quarter of world carbon emissions result from deforestation, we must reverse the destruction of forests, especially the vital rainforest belt where most species of plants and animals live.

It has recently become quite obvious that significant changes are also needed in the way our economic system is structured. Global warming is intimately related to the gargantuan quantities of energy that our industries devour to provide the levels of consumption that many of us have learned to expect. From a Buddhist perspective, a sane and sustainable economy would be governed by the principle of sufficiency: the key to happiness is contentment rather than an ever-increasing abundance of goods. The compulsion to consume more and more is an expression of craving, the very thing the Buddha pinpointed as the root cause of suffering.

Instead of an economy that emphasizes profit and requires perpetual growth to avoid collapse, we need to move together towards an economy that provides a satisfactory standard of living for everyone while allowing us to develop our full (including spiritual) potential in harmony with the biosphere that sustains and nurtures all beings, including future generations. If political leaders are unable to recognize the urgency of our global crisis, or unwilling to put the long-term good of humankind above the short-term benefit of fossil-fuel corporations, we may need to challenge them with sustained campaigns of citizen action.

Dr James Hansen of NASA and other climatologists have recently defined the precise targets needed to prevent global warming from reaching catastrophic “tipping points.” For human civilization to be sustainable, the safe level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is no more than 350 parts per million (ppm). This target has been endorsed by the Dalai Lama, along with other Nobel laureates and distinguished scientists. Our current situation is particularly worrisome in that the present level is already 387 ppm, and has been rising at 2 ppm per year. We are challenged not only to reduce carbon emissions, but also to remove large quantities of carbon gas already present in the atmosphere.

As signatories to this statement of Buddhist principles, we acknowledge the urgent challenge of climate change. We join with the Dalai Lama in endorsing the 350 ppm target. In accordance with Buddhist teachings, we accept our individual and collective responsibility to do whatever we can to meet this target, including (but not limited to) the personal and social responses outlined above.

We have a brief window of opportunity to take action, to preserve humanity from imminent disaster and to assist the survival of the many diverse and beautiful forms of life on Earth. Future generations, and the other species that share the biosphere with us, have no voice to ask for our compassion, wisdom, and leadership. We must listen to their silence. We must be their voice, too, and act on their behalf.

Official website: http://www.ecobuddhism.org/buddhist-declaration.php

[TIOTIT]

Sounds like a media beat up...still if it's been talked about someone thinks it's a good idea.

The UK government is about to spend $700 million dollars installing surveillance cameras inside the private homes of citizens to ensure that children go to bed on time, attend school and eat proper meals.

No you aren’t reading a passage from George Orwell’s 1984 or Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, this is Britain in 2009, a country which already has more surveillance cameras watching its population than the whole of Europe put together.

Now the government is embarking on a scheme called “Family Intervention Projects” which will literally create a nanny state on steroids, with social services goons and private security guards given the authority to make regular “home checks” to ensure parents are raising their children correctly.

Telescreens will also be installed so government spies can keep an eye on whether parents are mistreating kids and whether the kids are fulfilling their obligations under a pre-signed contract.

Around 2,000 families have been targeted by this program so far and the government wants to snare 20,000 more within the next two years. The tab will be picked up by the taxpayer, with the “interventions” being funded through local council authorities.

Another key aspect of the program will see parents deemed “responsible” by the government handed the power to denounce and report bad parents who allow their children to engage in bad behavior. Such families will then be targeted for “interventions”.

Both parents and children will also be forced to sign a “behavior contract” with the government known as Home School Agreements before the start of every year, in which the state will dictate obligations that it expects to be met.

The opposition Conservative Party, who are clear favorites to win the next British election, commented that the program does not go far enough and is “too little, too late.”

Respondents to a Daily Express article about the new program expressed their shock at the totalitarian implications of what is unfolding in the United Kingdom under the guise of social services initiatives.

“Sorry, but what the hell? Why are people not up in arms about this?,” writes one, “This is a complete invasion of privacy, and it totally ignores the fact that the state does NOT own kids. It’s not up to them how parents choose to raise their children, as long as the parents do not actively harm them. Why on earth aren’t the public rioting? It’s completely anathema to basic British freedoms.”

“Excuse me!?! What an incredible intrusion into the privacy of a family! George Orwell must be spinning in his grave right now,” writes another.

“I have one comment to make: it completely violates Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (Human Rights Act 1998). Has this minister and his lackies even done any basic homework on basic human rights and civil liberties? Or rather they’ve just decided to completely ignore them,” adds another.

The move to install surveillance cameras inside private homes is also on the agenda across the pond. In February 2006, Houston Chief of Police Harold Hurtt said cameras should be placed inside apartments and homes in order to “fight crime” due to there being a shortage of police officers.

“I know a lot of people are concerned about Big Brother, but my response to that is, if you are not doing anything wrong, why should you worry about it?” Chief Hurtt told reporters.

Andy Teas with the Houston Apartment Association supported the proposal, saying privacy concerns would take a back seat to many people who would, “appreciate the thought of extra eyes looking out for them.”

If such programs come to fruition and are implemented on a mass scale then the full scope of George Orwell’s depiction of a totalitarian society is his classic novel 1984 will have been realized.

The following passage is from Orwell’s 1984;

    The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously. Any sound that Winston made, above the level of a very low whisper, would be picked up by it, moreover, so long as he remained within the field of vision which the metal plaque commanded, he could be seen as well as heard. There was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment. How often, or on what system, the Thought Police plugged in on any individual wire was guesswork. It was even conceivable that they watched everybody all the time. But at any rate they could plug in your wire whenever they wanted to. You had to live — did live, from habit that became instinct — in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard, and, except in darkness, every movement scrutinized.

[erik]

Quite amazing approach to raising children there; very British, I'd say.

There's another side to the story as well that the article does not discuss. It is about the kids and homes where these cameras will be installed. In 2004 some 26% of 13 year old kids were regularly consuming alcohol and smoking. Many of them were not attending schools either, whereas their parents said simply: 'I cannot do anything. They don't listen to me.'

Simple. They are unable to do anything. Full stop. Responsibility dropped, concern shifted to the shoulders of anybody bothering to be concerned.

Then they introduced short arrests for parents whose children were not attending school - from 30-90 days. The idea was to remind parents about their obligations. It had a limited effect, but improved the situation.

Now they are moving deeper into such families with the aim of forcing parents to do their duty and kids behave. Most certainly it will not work - you cannot force people externally to aspire for something without their inner motivation - and the number of yobs and butterflies on the streets of British cities will remain more or less the same.

Orwellian state? Maybe. Ridiculous? Definitely.

[erik]

88 months left and counting...

Summary

We calculate that 100 months from 1 August 2008, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will begin to exceed a point whereby it is no longer likely we will be able to avert potentially  irreversible climate change. 'Likely' in this context refers to the definition of risk used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to mean that, at that particular level of greenhouse gas concentration, there is only a 66 - 90 per cent chance of global average surface temperatures stabilising at 2º Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Once this concentration is exceeded, it becomes more and more likely that we will overshoot a 2º C level of warming. This is the maximum acceptable level of temperature rise agreed by the European Union and others as necessary to retain reasonable confidence of preventing uncontrollable and ultimately catastrophic warming. We also believe this calculation to be conservative. The reasons why and the assumptions behind our conclusion are detailed below.

Context: human-driven climate change

Present concentrations of carbon dioxide, the most prevalent greenhouse gas, are the highest they have been for the past 650,000 years. In the space of 250 years, the fossil fuel backed Industrial Revolution, and accompanying land-use changes, such as urbanisation and deforestation means we have released, cumulatively more than 1,800 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere. Currently, approximately 1,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) are released into the Earths’ atmosphere every second due to human (or ‘anthropogenic’) activity. Greenhouse gases trap incoming solar radiation. If there are more of these gases in the atmosphere, more heat is trapped causing the planet to warm. Once a certain atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is passed (often termed a 'tipping point'), global warming could accelerate. A number of positive feedback loops amplify the warming effect by a physical process triggered by the initial warming itself or the increase in greenhouse gasses. One example is the melting of ice cover which reduces the reflective ability of the Earth's surface and, by revealing a darker land surface, increases heat absorption. Other processes, such as a decreasing ability of oceans to absorb CO2 due to increasing wind strengths linked to climate change, have already been observed in the Southern and North Atlantic oceans. This increases the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, causing further climate change. Because of such self-reinforcing feedbacks, once a critical greenhouse concentration threshold is passed, even if human beings stop releasing additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, global warming is likely to continue. The Earth’s climate may shift into a different state (i.e. different ocean circulation, wind and rainfall patterns) with potentially catastrophic implications for life on Earth. Such a change in the state of the climate system is often referred to as irreversible climate change.

100 months from August 2008

By using the best estimates of current greenhouse gas concentrations, emission growth rates, conservative estimates for the potentially damaging environmental feedbacks that accelerate global warming, and the maximum concentration of greenhouse gases that might prevent irreversible climate change, it is possible to estimate the length of time until this threshold is passed. CO2 is, of course, not the only gas that affects the climate. For this reason atmospheric concentration figures are often quoted to take account of other factors, including other greenhouse gasses. This is the figure given as the carbon dioxide equivalent or, CO2. Two different figures for CO2 are commonly given depending on whether it is expressing just those gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol, which is not comprehensive, or all radiative forcings that affect the amount of energy received by the climate system and hence its warming or cooling. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2) is the amount of carbon dioxide that would be required to give the same global average radiative forcing as the sum of all other forcings. Most commonly, the six greenhouse gasses covered by the Kyoto Protocol have been used to calculate CO2. However, if all anthropogenic driven radiative forcings are grouped together viz. not just those covered by the Kyoto Protocol, a more accurate estimate of the radiative forcings can be calculated. We have used the most up to date estimate from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report from Working Group One on total anthropogenic radiative forcings to calculate the current CO2. This approximation also includes some negative radiative forcings (forcings that result in cooling rather than warming, but which may be shorter-term in effect). In our calculation, we have taken the concentration threshold to be 400 parts per million volume (ppm) expressed as the more complete measure of carbon dioxide equivalent. Only by stabilising emissions at this concentration is it ‘likely’ that the global average temperature change will stabilise at 2º C above pre-industrial levels. In December 2007, the likely CO2 concentration is estimated to be just under 377 ppm, based on a CO2 concentration of 383ppm - this seemingly counter-intuitive measure is explained by the proper inclusion in the CO2 figure of all emissions effecting radiative forcing - in other words both those with cooling and warming effects. In our analysis, we have assumed a 3.3 per cent annual growth rate of emissions. This is based on the average growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions over the period 2000 through to 2006. We have assumed that the other radiative forcings remain constant. The 3.3 per cent growth rate includes carbon-cycle feedbacks (decrease in the effectiveness of the land and ocean sinks in removing anthropogenic CO2) as well as direct anthropogenic emissions. Of the 3.3 per cent increase, 18 ± 15% of the annual growth rate is due to carbon-cycle feedbacks, while 17 ± 6% is due to the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy (ratio of carbon per unit of economic activity – i.e. GDP). The remaining 65% ± 16% is due to the increase in the global economic activity. As the atmospheric concentration of CO2e increases, so will the strength of carbon-cycle feedbacks. Given this we have also included the conservative, lower bound estimate for acceleration of carboncycle feedbacks.

Our analysis shows that, assuming that other anthropogenic driven radiative forcings remain constant and the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions (due to economic growth and increasing carbon intensity of the economy) remains stable – by the end of December 2016 we will exceed an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400ppm. Our estimate is cautious. We have used the lowest estimate of carbon-cycle feedbacks. Furthermore, historically, an increase in the Earth's global average surface temperatures of just below 2º C has been considered a ‘safe’ level of warming. But, with the advancement of global climate models to three-dimensional coupled entities, with ever increasing spatial resolutions, it is now known that the impacts of climate change will manifest in more extreme local changes in temperature. For example, collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet is more than likely to be triggered by a local warming of 2.7 degrees, which could correspond to a global mean temperature increase of 2 degrees or less. The disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet could correspond to a sea level rise of up to 7 metres.

[Nichi]

Police beat women opposing Sudan dress code trial
         
By MOHAMED OSMAN, Associated Press Writer Mohamed Osman,
Tue Aug 4, 11:56 am ET

KHARTOUM, Sudan – Sudanese police fired tear gas and beat women protesting outside a Sudanese court Tuesday during the trial of a female journalist accused of violating the Islamic dress code by wearing trousers in public.

Police moved in swiftly and dispersed about 50 protesters, mostly women, who were supporting Lubna Hussein, a former U.N. worker facing 40 lashes on the charge of "indecent dressing." Some of the women demonstrators wore trousers in solidarity with Hussein while others wore more traditional dress.

Trousers are considered indecent under the strict interpretation of Islamic law, adopted by Sudan's Islamic regime which came to power after a coup led by President Omar al-Bashir in 1989. But activists and lawyers say the implementation of the law is arbitrary.

Hussein was among 13 women arrested July 3 in a raid by the public order police on a popular cafe in Khartoum. Ten of the women were flogged at a police station two days later and fined 250 Sudanese pounds, or about $120.

But Hussein and two others decided to go on trial. She has sought to publicize her case internationally, inviting human rights workers, Western diplomats and fellow journalists to witness her trial.

"I am not afraid of flogging. ... It's not about flogging. It's not about my innocence. It's about changing the law," Hussein said, speaking to The Associated Press after the hearing Tuesday.

She said she would take the issue all the way to Sudan's constitutional court if necessary, but that if the court rules against her and orders the flogging, she was ready "to receive (even) 40,000 lashes."

Hussein wore the same clothes Tuesday she wore when arrested, including the dark-colored pants that authorities found offensive. Although she was required to wear the same outfit to court so the judge and others could see the clothing, Hussein said she's been wearing it every day to highlight her case.

In the clashes outside the courtroom, witnesses said police wielding batons beat up one of Hussein's lawyers, Manal Awad Khogali, while keeping media and cameras at bay. No injuries were immediately reported.

"We are here to protest against this law that oppresses women and debases them," said one of the protesters, Amal Habani, a female columnist for the daily Ajraas Al Hurria, or Bells of Freedom in Arabic.

While the police broke up the demonstration outside the Khartoum Criminal Court, the judge adjourned Hussein's trial for a month to seek clarification from Sudan's foreign ministry.

At the time of her arrest, Hussein was working for the media department of the U.N. Mission in Sudan, which gives her immunity from prosecution. She submitted her resignation after her trial began last week because she wanted to go on trial to challenge the dress code law.

Defense lawyer Jalal al-Sayed told reporters Tuesday the judge wanted to know whether Hussein still has immunity because her superiors have not yet accepted the resignation.

Hussein's hearings first opened last Wednesday but immediately adjourned to give her the opportunity to resign.

Hussein has lauded her supporters, saying they showed that "Sudanese women from different political parties and groupings stand with us."

The case has drawn criticism from the United Nations. The U.N. Staff Union urged authorities last week not to flog Hussein, calling the punishment cruel, inhuman and degrading.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he was "deeply concerned" about Hussein's case and said flogging was a violation of international human rights standards.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090804/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_sudan_women_flogged

[Firestarter]

Environmental Scientist: Dr. Carl Sagan

Dr. Carl Sagan, the world-renowned astrophysicist, is professor of Astronomy and Space Sciences at Cornell University, a position he has held since 1968. He is author of The Dragons of Eden, published in 1977, and was the host of Public Broadcasting System's Cosmos science series in 1980.

Sagan has received numerous awards, including a Pulitzer Prize for The Dragons of Eden and the Helen Caldicott Leadership Award, presented by Women's Action for Nuclear Disarmament. One award that Dr. Sagan is unlikely to include in his resume is the "Chicken Little Honorable Mention," granted by the National Anxiety Center of Maplewood, New Jersey in 1991. The "honor" was bestowed on Dr. Sagan "for keeping everyone nervous with theories about nuclear winter, global warming and even the possibility of being hit by an asteroid."

Dr. Sagan was one of the early supporters of the Global Warming Theory, the proposition that the build-up of CO2, methane and refrigerant gases in the atmosphere could lead to a cataclysmic rise in the earth's temperature. He was also one of first proponents of the Nuclear Winter Theory, the proposition that nuclear war would send so much dust and debris into the atmosphere that heat from the sun would be blocked and the planet would freeze. Both theories have been hotly contested by respected members of the scientific community. A 1992 Gallup poll of scientists involved in climate research, for example, showed that 53% of the respondents did not believe global warming was occurring and 30% were undecided. Sagan has also advocated legalizing the sale of drugs.

Though Dr. Sagan is one of the most frequently cited experts on atmospheric issues by the media, his predictions are often wrong. For example, at the outset of the Persian Gulf War, Sagan warned that if Saddam Hussein delivered on his threat to set fire to Kuwait's oil wells, so much black soot would be sent into the stratosphere that sunlight would be blocked and a variation of the "nuclear winter" scenario would occur. Hussein followed through on his threat and by the close of the war over 600 wells were on fire. But the fires had little environmental or climatic effect beyond the Gulf region and virtually no ill effects globally. Peter Hobbs, a University of Washington atmospheric sciences professor who studied the atmospheric impact of the fires for the National Science Foundation, said that the fires' modest impact suggested that "some numbers [used to support the Nuclear Winter Theory]... were probably a little overblown."

Selected Sagan Quotes

"It was an unmistakable chimpanzee pant-hoot." - Quoted by Matt Crenson of The Dallas Morning News, November 18, 1992, commenting on the noise made by supporters of Patrick Buchanan at the Republican National Convention

"Quickly capping 363 oil well fires in a war zone is impossible. The fires would burn out of control until they put themselves out... The resulting soot might well stretch over all of South Asia... It could be carried around the world... [and] the consequences could be dire. Beneath such a pall sunlight would be dimmed, temperatures lowered and droughts more frequent. Spring and summer frosts may be expected... This endangerment of the food supplies... appears to be likely enough that it should affect the war plans..." - Sagan in op/ed he co-authored with Richard Turco, The Baltimore Sun, January 31, 1991, commenting during the Gulf War on the impact of oil well fires

"I am moderately hopeful that we can get out of this mess -- but only by changes in behavior. We have been irresponsible in technology. We've been greedy for short term goals and profits. Now, we must change." - Quoted in the Phoenix Gazette, September 26, 1989

[Firestarter]

Im not against it. Every little bit helps during this global climate crisis, I say.

Swiss seek Pope's blessing to stop glacier melting
         
Reuters – Aletsch glacier, the largest glacier in the Swiss Alps is seen on August 18, 2007. REUTERS/Stefan Wermuth Thu Aug 6, 9:30 am ET

ZURICH (Reuters) – After centuries of praying for a local glacier to stop growing, Swiss villagers are now seeking an audience with Pope Benedict to get his blessing for prayers against the global warming that is causing it to recede.

In 1678, the inhabitants of the Alpine villages of Fieschertal and Fiesch made a formal vow to live virtuously and to pray against the growth of the Aletsch glacier, Europe's longest, which had caused a lake to flood into their homes.

To reinforce their prayers, they started holding an annual procession in 1862, when the glacier reached its longest during the mini-Ice Age Europe suffered in the mid-19th century.

But the villages now want to seek permission from Pope Benedict to change their vow as the glacier is melting fast due to climate change and have requested an audience with him.

"The residents of Fiesch and Fischertal hope that this will happen in September or October and are optimistic that the Holy Father will decide in their favor as he has repeatedly spoken out about climate change," they said in a statement.

Switzerland's glaciers shrank by 12 percent over the past decade, melting at their fastest rate due to rising temperatures and lighter snowfalls, a recent study showed.

Glaciers are a key source of water for hydro-electric plants in Switzerland as well as an important tourist attraction.

Researchers are predicting that the temperatures in the Swiss Alps will rise by 1.8 degrees Celsius in winter and by 2.7 degrees Celsius in the summer by 2050.

(Reporting by Emma Thomasson; Editing by Jon Boyle)

[Firestarter]

Glaciers a canary in the coal mine of global warming

 (CNN) -- U.S. scientists monitoring shrinking glaciers in Washington State and

Alaska reported this week that a major meltdown is under way.
The Gulcana glacier in Alaska is one of three glaciers considered a benchmark by the U.S. Geological Survey.

The Gulcana glacier in Alaska is one of three glaciers considered a benchmark by the U.S. Geological Survey.

A 50-year government study found that the world's glaciers are melting at a rapid and alarming rate. The ongoing study is the latest in a series of reports that found glaciers worldwide are melting faster than anyone had predicted they would just a few years ago. It offers a clear indication of an accelerating climate change and warming earth, according to the authors.

Since 1959, the U.S. Geological Survey, which published the study on its Web site, has been tracking the movements of the South Cascade glacier in Washington State and the Wolverine and Gulcana glaciers in Alaska. The three glaciers are considered "benchmarks" for the conditions of thousands of other glaciers because they're in different climate zones and at various elevations.

"These changes are taking place in Washington State and Alaska in three different climate regimes," said Edward Josberger, the lead researcher on the study with the USGS Washington Water Science Center in Tacoma, Washington. "So we feel it's definitely something going on, probably on a global scale, and of course, if you look at other such measurements around the world and put it all together, yes, glaciers are retreating and retreating rapidly."
Don't Miss

    * In-vitro meat: Would lab-burgers be better for us and the planet?
    * Obama's 'green jobs' guru

In a telephone interview with CNN, Josberger called the unprecedented glacial melt the "canary in the coal mine."

The half-century record contains measurements of the amount of snow that has fallen on the glaciers each winter and on how much ice has melted off each summer. The data give scientists a sense of whether the glacier is getting more "healthy" or losing mass, Josberger said. They also indicate what's happening to mountain glaciers in other parts of the world, the scientist said.

"We feel it's definitely the signature of global change and climate warming," Josberger said.

The melt of glaciers is resulting in higher sea levels and affecting ecosystems and the rivers that emanate from these glaciers, Josberger said. "In terms of water supply available for people, Anchorage is fed by two glacially fed lakes. There are some very strong impacts that could happen."

The rate at which a glacier melts depends on its thickness and mass and, of course, on the temperature. Even small changes in temperature of only one to two degrees can have a significant impact on the environment, according the the National Weather Service.

"We've been using this 50-year record to interpret the changes or the response of glaciers to climate change," Josberger said. "Basically, in the past 10, 15 or 20 years these three glaciers are wasting away. The melting has far exceeded the amount of snow that falls on them in the winter, so they're retreating far up valley. And this retreat is taking place all over the Pacific Northwest and Alaska."

For example, Washington's South Cascade glacier has lost half its volume since 1960 and is predicted to lose half its current volume in 100 years.

And, if the canary analogy proves true, the ice retreat is likely occurring all over the world, too, he said.

Glacier melt will likely continue and, as it does, sea levels around the world are expected to continue rising. And that could affect people in low-lying coastal communities, forcing them from their homes and further inland, experts say.

[Firestarter]

Less Sex, More TV Aired in India

UTTAR PRADESH, India (CNN) -- On World Population Day this year India's new health and welfare minister came out with an idea on how to tackle the population issue: Bring electricity to every Indian village so that people would watch television until late at night and therefore be too tired to make babies.

 
Could the remote control be a birth control method?

That statement raised eyebrows across this vast country -- but what are the realities and reactions from families who make up the second largest population in the world?

At 80-plus years old Omar Mohammed has never heard of population control.

He lives in India's most populous state Uttar Pradesh and has certainly done his part in contributing to India's burgeoning population.

"Now you see I have 24 children, 13 boys and 11 girls," Omar says.

Omar believes only God can decide how many children you should have. He lifts his hands to the sky and says: "This is His command. It's not my doing, it's His doing."

On the other hand there's the Arora family in the capital city of Delhi. They have two children.

"You can't even get enough water or electricity now. So its advisable that people have only two children and then they should stop having more kids." mother Anjana Arora says.

The Aroras know a little something about population issues; their daughter was given the official title of India's one billionth citizen when she was born in 2000.

With family planning and free contraceptive programs the Indian government has long tried to encourage families to have only two children.

Overall government statistics show the birth rate is coming down. The numbers show 14 of India's 35 states have reached the two child per family target.

But the push is failing in other states, especially in villages and among the poor and illiterate where the fertility rate is as high as 3.5 children per woman.

Don't Miss
World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011
There are all kinds of reasons -- from the desire to continue having children until a son is born to lack of access to contraceptives.

The government's concern is that a booming population will further test already scarce resources, greatly impact the environment, and make life even harder for the poor.

According to the United Nations, India is home to 50 percent of the world's poor and on current projections, India will become the most populous country on earth sometime in the next 50 years, overtaking China.

Upon hearing about the latest idea to use electricity and television to give people something else to do besides procreate, mom Anjana Arora scoffed.

"That's a stupid thing" she said in English then switched to Hindi "The only way to change people's mentality is through education."

But not everyone is writing the idea off. "It's an idea that can really work." says A.R. Nanda.

Years ago Nanda helped draft some of India's population stabilization policies and he now runs the Population Foundation of India.

He says while education and access to health care is paramount, electrifying villages is not a bad idea.

"It gives a message loud and clear that we need to do something for the people which is people-friendly and which in a way will keep their minds from taking irrational decisions about producing more babies," Nanda says.

He says there are studies that prove it. One such survey done in 2006 by an Italian sexologist reveals couples with televisions in their bedrooms had sex half as much as those without it.


That being said Omar Mohammed, the man with 24 children had a different take.

"After watching TV," he says, "when we look at scintillating things we will probably want to make more children."

[Nichi]

'Many hurricanes' in modern times

Hurricanes in the Atlantic are more frequent than at any time in the last 1,000 years, according to research just published in the journal Nature.

Scientists examined sediments left by hurricanes that crossed the coast in North America and the Caribbean.

The record suggests modern hurricane activity is unusual - though it might have been even higher 1,000 years ago.

The possible influence of climate change on hurricanes has been a controversial topic for several years.

Study leader Michael Mann from Penn State University believes that while not providing a definitive answer, this work does add a useful piece to the puzzle.

The levels we're seeing at the moment are within the bounds of uncertainty.

Julian Heming, UK Met Office
"It's been hotly debated, and various teams using different computer models have come up with different answers," he told BBC News.

"I would argue that this study presents some useful palaeoclimatic data points."

Hurricanes strike land with winds blowing at up to 300km per hour - strong enough to pick up sand and earth from the shore and carry it inland.

In places where there is a lagoon behind the shoreline, this leads to "overwash" - material from the shore being deposited in the lagoon, where it forms a layer in the sediment.

Researchers have studied eight such lagoons on shores where Atlantic hurricanes regularly make landfall - seven around the US mainland and one in Puerto Rico.

Over time, Dr Mann's team believes, the number of hurricanes making landfall on these sites will be approximately proportional to the total number of hurricanes formed - so these zones provide a long-term record of how hurricane frequency has changed over the centuries.
 
Wind shear at altitude can prevent a tropical storm's structure developing
The last decade has seen an average of 17 hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic - earlier in the century, half that number were recorded.

But current levels were matched and perhaps exceeded during the Mediaeval Climate Anomaly (also known as the Mediaeval Warm Period) about 1,000 years ago.

"I think if there's one standout result (from this study), it's that the high storm counts we've seen in the last 10 to 15 years could have been matched or even exceeded in past periods," commented Julian Heming, a tropical storm specialist from the UK Met Office who was not involved in the new research.

"So it's worth feeding into the debate about whether what we're seeing now is exceptional or something related to multi-decadal or even multi-centennial variability; and it does tell us that the levels we're seeing at the moment are within the bounds of uncertainty."

Different strokes

Dr Mann's team also used a pre-existing computer model of hurricane generation to estimate activity over the same 1,500-year period.

The model includes three factors known to be important in determining hurricane formation: sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the El Nino/La Nina cycle in the eastern Pacific, and another natural climatic cycle, the North Atlantic Oscillation.

This analysis suggests, Dr Mann argues, that the hurricane peak 1,000 years ago and the current high activity are not produced by identical sets of circumstances.

Then, he says, an extended period of La Nina conditions in the Pacific - which aid hurricane formation - co-incided with relatively warm conditions in the Atlantic.

Now, the high number is simply driven by warming waters in the Atlantic - which is projected to increase in the coming decades.

"Even though the levels of activity are similar (between 1,000 years ago and now), the factors behind that are different," said Dr Mann.

"The implication is that if everything else is equal - and we don't know that about El Nino - then warming of the tropical Atlantic should lead to increasing levels of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity."

Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8197191.stm