Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[Michael]

I fear the global economic situation is far worse than what commentators are willing to admit. It is not in anyone's interest to be honest about it. I had thought the US would stand up to the latest turmoil, but now I am less certain of that.

"Total private and government debt in the major developed countries has ballooned from $US142 trillion to $US199 trillion since 2007, according to McKinsey consulting, an increase of $US57 trillion. This is debt that will never be paid back, says Ken Courtis: "You can imagine what would happen to interest rates and the currency of a country if the government said 'Sorry folks, we won't be paying back the money'." "

[erik]

Will Estonia retaliate for the severe sentence of it's security man captured by the Russians?

It is unlikely. It seems that the efforts will go on at the politcal and diplomatic level, but no forceful actions.

[erik]

Researchers of globalisation have claimed that before World War I our planet was on the verge of globalisation breakthrough. There was more cross-border movement and communication than ever before. Then the wild fire of nationalism flared and 10 million people were killed on the 800 km long front line in 4 years. Subsequently, there were Second World War and 50 years of Cold War with people looking at each other through the gun sights.

Right now the level of globalisation is again unprecedented and nationalism, religion and climate change flame up wars and mass migration. Europe is hit by a flood of refugees. In May-June, there were only in Libya 450,000 people waiting to be ferried to Europe. About 10 million Syrians have been displaced. Islamic State will put many more on the move.

We will see which way it will go this time. Many Europeans argue for re-establishing borders, isolating Europe from the Middle East and North Africa. Will it be barbed wire, sensors and machine guns or something else?
Will it be humanity and human-ness or will we go back to WWI thinking?

Anyhow, I'd reckon the mass migration of hundreds-of-thousands-soon-to-be-millions-and-many-millions from poor areas to rich countries has began.

[Michael]

Do wealthy nations accept the influx, put up walls and block access, or intervene in the country of source?

[erik]

Do wealthy nations accept the influx, put up walls and block access, or intervene in the country of source?

It would be nice to solve the problems through intervention far away, but does it work, really? Even if it does, how long would it take? The problem is already walking, crawling, screaming, jumping the trains and drowning on European coasts. Effective and successful intervention is a nice dream.

[Michael]

There will be trouble, no matter which option is taken. The world is changing, whether we like it or not.

[erik]

There will be trouble, no matter which option is taken. The world is changing, whether we like it or not.

Indeed.

[Jahn]

Do wealthy nations accept the influx, put up walls and block access, or intervene in the country of source?

Heh, we got serious problems now with the refugees from Syria.

Nice though that they would like to walk through Denmark with the aim to reach good old Sweden.
Wearing signs that said "Not Denmark NO, To Sweden YES.

[Jahn]

And there are endless articles about the refugees in the newspaper.
I even saw one where the author said that she was a seven year old refugee from Estonia after II:nd World War when she came to Sweden - and there was an authentic black and white photo.

So we took care of the Estonian, Finnish and Baltic refugees in the 1940's plus all the people in the White buses from the concentration camps in Germany and Polen
What Do Estonia for the refugees of today - Juhani? Is there any chance for the people from Syria to get to your country - or is it a dead end street?

[Michael]

I suspect the problem of IS has only just begun. Their targets are so easy to select, and deliver such mayhem, as well as cause structures to crumble. Take Saudi Arabia, a structure of power that IS despises. You can easily imagine, without me saying it, how they could cause mayhem in that country. Then there is Turkey, already rift by religious rivalry - not too much trouble to get those people in huge outrage either.

OK, so they don't have the command of the machinery of a modern state, like the Nazis, but given sufficient rope, their influence will reach an impossible-to-allow level.

[Michael]

It's one of those things which hindsight commentators will say, we could see this coming from a long way off. But actually, there are many little steps that lead up to a big step, and even then, there are conditions which divert intensity elsewhere. Now, however, we have the fact that developed nations have put 'boots on the ground' in Syria. Or at least, one nation - Russia. There is a lot of strategic self-interest involved.

The Arab states stand around dithering. I mean, did anyone ever expect they would do anything, except in Yemen? There is only one state that has the capacity to initiate an alternative involvement to Russia, but Obama hasn't the stomach for throwing American lives into the cesspool of the Middle East, and who can blame him?

One gets the feeling that huge changes are unfolding from the new war zones, be they through military of humanitarian consequences.

But it's not just the Middle East and terrorism, we also have climate change. Vast numbers of humanity are on the move, and it will only increase. We are entering a period of instability not previously seen on this planet.

[erik]

And there are endless articles about the refugees in the newspaper.
I even saw one where the author said that she was a seven year old refugee from Estonia after II:nd World War when she came to Sweden - and there was an authentic black and white photo.

So we took care of the Estonian, Finnish and Baltic refugees in the 1940's plus all the people in the White buses from the concentration camps in Germany and Polen
What Do Estonia for the refugees of today - Juhani? Is there any chance for the people from Syria to get to your country - or is it a dead end street?

Estonia tries to take in numbers that are manageable and sustainable. 200-300 people would be such a number.

The general attitude is rather negative, though. It is one thing to take in people from a similar culture and with similar atiitudes. It is another matter to take in people with a dramatically different experience and understangings.

Norwegians tried it on a large scale, and they were considered weak by Somalis: http://www.siotw.org/modules/news_english/item.php?itemid=615

Now, I hear, Norwegians have gone much more forceful on various immigrants. Now they use Sweden as a negative example: http://swedenreport.org/2015/05/16/sweden-a-warning-example-to-norway/

[erik]

I suspect the problem of IS has only just begun. Their targets are so easy to select, and deliver such mayhem, as well as cause structures to crumble. Take Saudi Arabia, a structure of power that IS despises. You can easily imagine, without me saying it, how they could cause mayhem in that country. Then there is Turkey, already rift by religious rivalry - not too much trouble to get those people in huge outrage either.

OK, so they don't have the command of the machinery of a modern state, like the Nazis, but given sufficient rope, their influence will reach an impossible-to-allow level.

They're good with IT and they have billions of dollars.

[Michael]

Estonia tries to take in numbers that are manageable and sustainable. 200-300 people would be such a number.

The general attitude is rather negative, though. It is one thing to take in people from a similar culture and with similar atiitudes. It is another matter to take in people with a dramatically different experience and understangings.

Norwegians tried it on a large scale, and they were considered weak by Somalis: http://www.siotw.org/modules/news_english/item.php?itemid=615

Now, I hear, Norwegians have gone much more forceful on various immigrants. Now they use Sweden as a negative example: http://swedenreport.org/2015/05/16/sweden-a-warning-example-to-norway/

This is indeed a strange matter. Many countries do not want to take in large numbers (I mean like 160,000) due to precisely this problem of having their home culture disrupted. In Australia there has been discussion of only taking in Christians. The desire to sustain the national cultural is understandable, but alas, I feel we have passed that point. Germany has taken a major decision that will unalterably shift the core nature of it's national character. I very much doubt other countries will be able to hold out, and in fact, to the extent they do, it is likely they will fall behind in some critical ways.

[erik]

This is indeed a strange matter. Many countries do not want to take in large numbers (I mean like 160,000) due to precisely this problem of having their home culture disrupted. In Australia there has been discussion of only taking in Christians. The desire to sustain the national cultural is understandable, but alas, I feel we have passed that point. Germany has taken a major decision that will unalterably shift the core nature of it's national character. I very much doubt other countries will be able to hold out, and in fact, to the extent they do, it is likely they will fall behind in some critical ways.

Germans have had their nationalism strongly suppressed for more than half a century. But it is still there, quite deep, albeit its full strength remains unclear.

I would not bet on Germany swallowing the newcomers peacefully. There will be clashes and Germans will not tolerate all sorts of excessive Islamic things introduced to their world.

Last time, it took a whole world 6 years to put Germans on their knees after Germans decided they were uebermensch and attempted to claim what they thought was rightfully theirs.