Well here's my take on the state of play as we see it unfolding in this new twist.
To begin, I'm surprised Iran hasn't been bombed by now. I know it was going to be a very tricky manoeuvre if the Israelis had to do it alone, but still I would have expected them to act by now, and why they haven't is food for thought.
I wonder just how the US elections is being factored into this: wouldn't look good to do it during a US election ... or would it? It could play into Republican hands - tough men at the helm in dangerous times etc. But then it might look like, Oh not again! Which may backfire and play into Democrat hands. Hard to say really.
I'd bet there has been words from both camps to the Israelis that, just wait, we'll fix em after the election, no matter which side wins. But you never know, George may just 'have' to act yet.
So that one is just on simmer. Russia/Georgia worked well for McCain, so that was a nice one, but who knows what it will mean 'going forward' as everyone enjoys saying these days. Then the Polish debacle. I hear they have been working on that defence bullshit since 1946. Actually everyone loves that one - the Russians and the US because it's a gigantic open cheque book for the 'military complex' - big bucks to your mates type of affair.
But now, a new lesion is rupturing in the fabric, and one that isn't quite in control. Pakistan. That old crim, Bhutto's husband is now the President. After he ripped off squillions last time, you'd have thought they would have shuffled him quietly away. But sanity is not prevailing in Pak.
The Indians were outraged before, at the billions in cash and military equipment that was flowing into Pak from US. And why? What did they get out it? Zilch! Except for a giant bucket of trouble.
We now see the NATO forces are finally fed up, and have crossed the Afghan/Pak border - God knows why it has taken this long. One can only assume Musharraf was a wily old devil - took the money, and did absolutely nothing to change things in Pak. What a rort!
The Taliban are in control of huge sections of the country. The Security forces (ISI) are a law unto themselves, and now we have the politics back into the old volatility. It is a very dangerous mix, and I bet the US is mightily concerned - I'd say they are whispering into the military top brass right now as we speak. The US, or India, or anyone, can not afford Pak to flip on its head - they have too much weaponry and influence.
The question is, can anyone do anything in that place? Keeping a lid on it is the only possibility, and that isn't going to make the fracturing forces inside the country go away. The only good news from there, is that the vast majority do not want the Islamists to take over. That hasn't stopped anyone before though.
So, will we see the US elections out of the way before some major upheaval? Somehow I doubt it, as it will be too useful for the Republicans, who, lets face it, despite the polling, are set to be turfed out of power on their ears. They don't like it, and you can bet they will be scouring the globe for anything to play their way. They are desperate, and desperate men do desperate things.
Now we hear the US Govt is going to take over Freddy and Fanny! Where will all the money for that come from? What will the Japs say about it - asking when their money is coming back from funding the Iraq war? But what else can the Govt do? It has to bail them out - their hands are tied. If they collapse, it'll likely sink the whole global financial ship.
And then there are the hurricanes...