Topic: Around the Globe in Real Time

[Nichi]

2010's world gone wild: Quakes, floods, blizzards

Seth Borenstein And Julie Reed Bell, Associated Press – 2 hrs 17 mins ago

This was the year the Earth struck back.

Earthquakes, heat waves, floods, volcanoes, super typhoons, blizzards, landslides and droughts killed at least a quarter million people in 2010 — the deadliest year in more than a generation. More people were killed worldwide by natural disasters this year than have been killed in terrorism attacks in the past 40 years combined.

"It just seemed like it was back-to-back and it came in waves," said Craig Fugate, who heads the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency. It handled a record number of disasters in 2010.

"The term '100-year event' really lost its meaning this year."

And we have ourselves to blame most of the time, scientists and disaster experts say.

Even though many catastrophes have the ring of random chance, the hand of man made this a particularly deadly, costly, extreme and weird year for everything from wild weather to earthquakes.

Poor construction and development practices conspire to make earthquakes more deadly than they need be. More people live in poverty in vulnerable buildings in crowded cities. That means that when the ground shakes, the river breaches, or the tropical cyclone hits, more people die.

Disasters from the Earth, such as earthquakes and volcanoes "are pretty much constant," said Andreas Schraft, vice president of catastrophic perils for the Geneva-based insurance giant Swiss Re. "All the change that's made is man-made."

The January earthquake that killed well more than 220,000 people in Haiti is a perfect example. Port-au-Prince has nearly three times as many people — many of them living in poverty — and more poorly built shanties than it did 25 years ago. So had the same quake hit in 1985 instead of 2010, total deaths would have probably been in the 80,000 range, said Richard Olson, director of disaster risk reduction at Florida International University.

In February, an earthquake that was more than 500 times stronger than the one that struck Haiti hit an area of Chile that was less populated, better constructed, and not as poor. Chile's bigger quake caused fewer than 1,000 deaths.

Climate scientists say Earth's climate also is changing thanks to man-made global warming, bringing extreme weather, such as heat waves and flooding.

In the summer, one weather system caused oppressive heat in Russia, while farther south it caused flooding in Pakistan that inundated 62,000 square miles, about the size of Wisconsin. That single heat-and-storm system killed almost 17,000 people, more people than all the worldwide airplane crashes in the past 15 years combined.

"It's a form of suicide, isn't it? We build houses that kill ourselves (in earthquakes). We build houses in flood zones that drown ourselves," said Roger Bilham, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado. "It's our fault for not anticipating these things. You know, this is the Earth doing its thing."

No one had to tell a mask-wearing Vera Savinova how bad it could get. She is a 52-year-old administrator in a dental clinic who in August took refuge from Moscow's record heat, smog and wildfires.

"I think it is the end of the world," she said. "Our planet warns us against what would happen if we don't care about nature."

The excessive amount of extreme weather that dominated 2010 is a classic sign of man-made global warming that climate scientists have long warned about. They calculate that the killer Russian heat wave — setting a national record of 111 degrees — would happen once every 100,000 years without global warming.

Preliminary data show that 18 countries broke their records for the hottest day ever.

"These (weather) events would not have happened without global warming," said Kevin Trenberth, chief of climate analysis for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

That's why the people who study disasters for a living say it would be wrong to chalk 2010 up to just another bad year.

"The Earth strikes back in cahoots with bad human decision-making," said a weary Debarati Guha Sapir, director for the World Health Organization's Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. "It's almost as if the policies, the government policies and development policies, are helping the Earth strike back instead of protecting from it. We've created conditions where the slightest thing the Earth does is really going to have a disproportionate impact."

Here's a quick tour of an anything but normal 2010:

HOW DEADLY:

While the Haitian earthquake, Russian heat wave, and Pakistani flooding were the biggest killers, deadly quakes also struck Chile, Turkey, China and Indonesia in one of the most active seismic years in decades. Through mid-December there have been 20 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher, compared to the normal 16. This year is tied for the most big quakes since 1970, but it is not a record. Nor is it a significantly above average year for the number of strong earthquakes, U.S. earthquake officials say.

Flooding alone this year killed more than 6,300 people in 59 nations through September, according to the World Health Organization. In the United States, 30 people died in the Nashville, Tenn., region in flooding. Inundated countries include China, Italy, India, Colombia and Chad. Super Typhoon Megi with winds of more than 200 mph devastated the Philippines and parts of China.

Through Nov. 30, nearly 260,000 people died in natural disasters in 2010, compared to 15,000 in 2009, according to Swiss Re. The World Health Organization, which hasn't updated its figures past Sept. 30, is just shy of 250,000. By comparison, deaths from terrorism from 1968 to 2009 were less than 115,000, according to reports by the U.S. State Department and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

The last year in which natural disasters were this deadly was 1983 because of an Ethiopian drought and famine, according to WHO. Swiss Re calls it the deadliest since 1976.

The charity Oxfam says 21,000 of this year's disaster deaths are weather related.

HOW EXTREME:

After strong early year blizzards — nicknamed Snowmageddon — paralyzed the U.S. mid-Atlantic and record snowfalls hit Russia and China, the temperature turned to broil.

The year may go down as the hottest on record worldwide or at the very least in the top three, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The average global temperature through the end of October was 58.53 degrees, a shade over the previous record of 2005, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

Los Angeles had its hottest day in recorded history on Sept. 27: 113 degrees. In May, 129 set a record for Pakistan and may have been the hottest temperature recorded in an inhabited location.

In the U.S. Southeast, the year began with freezes in Florida that had cold-blooded iguanas becoming comatose and falling off trees. Then it became the hottest summer on record for the region. As the year ended, unusually cold weather was back in force.

Northern Australia had the wettest May-October on record, while the southwestern part of that country had its driest spell on record. And parts of the Amazon River basin struck by drought hit their lowest water levels in recorded history.

HOW COSTLY:

Disasters caused $222 billion in economic losses in 2010 — more than Hong Kong's economy — according to Swiss Re. That's more than usual, but not a record, Schraft said. That's because this year's disasters often struck poor areas without heavy insurance, such as Haiti.

Ghulam Ali's three-bedroom, one-story house in northwestern Pakistan collapsed during the floods. To rebuild, he had to borrow 50,000 rupees ($583) from friends and family. It's what many Pakistanis earn in half a year.

HOW WEIRD:

A volcano in Iceland paralyzed air traffic for days in Europe, disrupting travel for more than 7 million people. Other volcanoes in the Congo, Guatemala, Ecuador, the Philippines and Indonesia sent people scurrying for safety. New York City had a rare tornado.

A nearly 2-pound hailstone that was 8 inches in diameter fell in South Dakota in July to set a U.S. record. The storm that produced it was one of seven declared disasters for that state this year.

There was not much snow to start the Winter Olympics in a relatively balmy Vancouver, British Columbia, while the U.S. East Coast was snowbound.

In a 24-hour period in October, Indonesia got the trifecta of terra terror: a deadly magnitude 7.7 earthquake, a tsunami that killed more than 500 people and a volcano that caused more than 390,000 people to flee. That's after flooding, landslides and more quakes killed hundreds earlier in the year.

Even the extremes were extreme. This year started with a good sized El Nino weather oscillation that causes all sorts of extremes worldwide. Then later in the year, the world got the mirror image weather system with a strong La Nina, which causes a different set of extremes. Having a year with both a strong El Nino and La Nina is unusual.

And in the United States, FEMA declared a record number of major disasters, 79 as of Dec. 14. The average year has 34.

A list of day-by-day disasters in 2010 compiled by the AP runs 64 printed pages long.

"The extremes are changed in an extreme fashion," said Greg Holland, director of the earth system laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

For example, even though it sounds counterintuitive, global warming likely played a bit of a role in "Snowmageddon" earlier this year, Holland said. That's because with a warmer climate, there's more moisture in the air, which makes storms including blizzards, more intense, he said.

White House science adviser John Holdren said we should get used to climate disasters or do something about global warming: "The science is clear that we can expect more and more of these kinds of damaging events unless and until society's emissions of heat-trapping gases and particles are sharply reduced."

And that's just the "natural disasters." It was also a year of man-made technological catastrophes. BP's busted oil well caused 172 million gallons to gush into the Gulf of Mexico. Mining disasters — men trapped deep in the Earth — caused dozens of deaths in tragic collapses in West Virginia, China and New Zealand. The fortunate miners in Chile who survived 69 days underground provided the feel good story of the year.

In both technological and natural disasters, there's a common theme of "pushing the envelope," Olson said.

Colorado's Bilham said the world's population is moving into riskier megacities on fault zones and flood-prone areas. He figures that 400 million to 500 million people in the world live in large cities prone to major earthquakes.

A Haitian disaster will happen again, Bilham said: "It could be Algiers. it could be Tehran. It could be any one of a dozen cities."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101219/ap_on_sc/ye_sci_disastrous_year

[Builder]

Good post. It says so many things to people reading with open minds.

[Builder]

Interesting photo project on the rising sea levels

[Nichi]

8 dead in new flood as Australia's crisis worsens
(AP) – 55 minutes ago

BRISBANE, Australia (AP) — Rescuers raced Tuesday to reach people trapped on roofs after a flash flood sent a massive wall of water through a valley in Australia's waterlogged east, tossing cars like toys, killing at least eight people and leaving 72 missing, officials said.

The sudden surge near the town of Toowoomba after a storm Monday lifted Australia's 2-week-old flood crisis in Queensland state to a new level and brought the overall death toll to 18. Until then, the flooding had unfolded slowly as swollen rivers burst their banks and inundated towns while moving downstream toward the ocean.

Emergency services officers plucked more than 40 people from houses isolated overnight by the torrent that hit the Lockyer Valley on Monday, thunderstorms and more driving rain hampered efforts to send helicopters to help an unknown number of other people still in danger Tuesday.

Queensland state Premier Anna Bligh said four children were killed and there were "grave concerns" for at least 11 of the missing. Many of those still stranded or unaccounted for are families and young children, she said.

"This has been a night of extraordinary events," Bligh told reporters. "We've seen acts of extreme bravery and courage from our emergency workers. We know they're out on the front line desperately trying to begin their search and rescue efforts, and we know we have people stranded and people lost."

She said the death toll stood at eight, but that "we expect that figure to rise and potentially quite dramatically."

Queensland has been in the grip of its worst flooding for more than two weeks, after tropical downpours across a vast area of the state covered an area the size of France and Germany combined. Entire towns have been swamped, more than 200,000 people affected, and coal and farming industries virtually shut down.

Monday's flash flooding struck without warning in Toowoomba, a city of some 90,000 people nestled in mountains 2,300 feet (700 meters) above sea level. Bligh said an intense deluge fell over a concentrated area, sending a 26-foot (eight-meter), fast-moving torrent crashing through Toowoomba and smaller towns further down the valley.

On Tuesday, the water was still pushing its way downstream, flooding river systems as it moved toward the coast. Thousands were being evacuated from communities in the water's predicted path and residents in low-lying regions of the state capital of Brisbane — Australia's third-largest city — were urged to sandbag their homes.

"We have a grim and desperate situation," Bligh said. "This took everybody so unawares that there was no opportunity in most cases for people to get to safety."

Rescue workers were battling more bad weather Tuesday. Heavy rain and thunderstorms were forecast for the region for most of the day, which could lead to more flash flooding, the Bureau of Meteorology warned.

Deputy Police Commissioner Ian Stewart said rescue efforts were concentrated on towns downstream of Toowoomba, including hardest-hit Murphy's Creek and Grantham, where about 30 people sought shelter in a school isolated by the floodwaters.

News video from late Monday showed houses submerged to the roof line in raging muddy waters, with people clambering on top. A man, woman and child sat on the roof of their car as waters churned around them with just inches (centimeters) to spare.

Among the dead were a mother and her two children whose car was swept away in the floodwaters, Bligh said. Two other children also were killed, she said.

In Toowoomba, the waters disappeared almost as fast as they arrived, leaving debris strewn throughout downtown and cars piled atop one another.

The flooding in recent weeks has cut roads and rail lines across Queensland, the state's coal industry has been virtually shut down, and cattle ranching and farming across a large part of the state are at a standstill.

Queensland officials have said the price of rebuilding homes, businesses and infrastructure, coupled with economic losses, could be as high as $5 billion.

On the other side of Australia, hot, dry conditions have sparked a wildfire that has destroyed at least four homes. Around 150 firefighters were battling a blaze about 70 miles (110 kilometers) south of the Western Australia state capital of Perth on Tuesday. There have been no reported injuries.

[Nichi]

As if all the flooding isn't enough, Queensland is getting 2 cyclones within a 2-3 day period.

Queensland is bracing for a second cyclone mid week after Anthony crossed the coast near Bowen yesterday evening, bringing wind gusts to around 125 km/h and torrential rain.

The cyclone cut power to homes and caused flooding through the Pioneer river catchment after over 300mm of rain fell west of Mackay in under 24 hours. The system quickly weakened into a tropical depression after making landfall but will still spread heavy rain to western Queensland during the next 24 hours.

Unfortunately for weather worn Queenslanders a second stronger cyclone will track west across the Coral Sea and hit the Queensland coast mid week. At this stage the most likely timing for a crossing is early Thursday anywhere from Cooktown to about Rockhampton. Yasi is likely to develop into at least a category 3 system with wind gusts above 200 km/h. The system is also large with gales spreading hundreds of kilometres from the eye. The magnitude of the system will bring heavy rain to most of the state which should cause widespread flooding through tropical regions.

After making landfall Yasi will continue moving westwards with the remnants spreading heavy rain over central Australia during the weekend.

Tom Saunders
Meteorologist
The Weather Channel.au

[Michael]

Another one hit Perth last night.

[Nichi]

New Zealand Earthquake Leaves Emergency Responders Overwhelmed
VOA News  February 22, 2011
 
A massive earthquake has devastated the New Zealand city of Christchurch, toppling tall office buildings at the height of the workday and killing at least 65 people.

Fire and rescue crews said their resources were overwhelmed as they struggled to cope with large numbers of people injured and trapped in the rubble. Helicopters were used to douse some fires and a crane was called in to rescue workers from the roof of a high-rise office tower.

Prime Minister John Key, who rushed to the city from the capital, Wellington, said the death toll was liable to rise. He said, "We may be witnessing New Zealand's darkest day."

The 6.3-magnitude earthquake was the second in five months for the city, which came through a 7.1-magnitude quake in September without loss of life. But seismologists said this one struck closer to the city and much closer to the surface, making it far more intense.

The earlier quake also came at 5 a.m., while most residents were safe in their beds. Tuesday's temblor struck just before 1 p.m., when workers were in their offices or in the streets for lunch and children were making their way home from school.

Video footage showed several multi-story buildings that fell in on themselves or into the streets, including the iconic Christchurch Cathedral, whose stone spire collapsed into a city square. Dazed residents wandered along the broken sidewalks as ambulances raced through rubble-strewn streets with sirens blaring.

The city's airport was shut down and many roads are impassible.

Mr. Key said in a television interview that crews would work through the night to find and rescue people who are trapped in the collapsed buildings.  He said 350 military troops were already at work in the city and another 250 were on the way to relieve them.

The prime minister described seeing residents sitting by the side of the road with their heads in their hands and said the city of about 350,000 people is "in absolute agony."  He said offers of help have been received from the United States and Australia.

Radio New Zealand reporter Laura Davis told VOA from Auckland that search-and-rescue teams were being flown in from around the country and that the government has accepted an offer of help from neighboring Australia.

She said 70 army medical staff have been deployed to help the city's overtaxed emergency crews and that up to 400 army troops had been sent to help seal off the most affected areas. The city's airport was shut down and many roads are impassible.

Davis also said schools had let out shortly before the quake and that many children were walking home when it struck. She said it was not clear what had happened to them.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake was centered five kilometers from Christchurch and at a depth of just four kilometers. Government seismologist Bill Fry told VOA that made it much more intense than the stronger quake that hit the city in September.

Fry explained that during the 10-second temblor, the ground was accelerating more rapidly "than the rate of an apple falling out of a tree."

[Builder]

Christchurch got hit by Earth...

[Nichi]

The reference to "our area" means to the Mid-Atlantic Region - especially Virginia and Maryland, which bound the Chesapeake Bay.

Chesapeake Region Leads East Coast In Sea-Level Rise
Sabri Ben-Achour

February 24, 2011 - Communities across the globe are beginning to come to grips with climate change and sea-level rise. One of the places where the water is rising especially quickly is right here in the Chesapeake Bay region.
 
The Chesapeake Bay has areas which are experiencing among the highest rates of sea-level rise on the East Coast. This is because the ground in many areas is sinking.
 
Towns are starting to see the effects and they're bracing for it. But there's more than just climate change behind the rising tide.

The beach in Ocean City is a major tourist draw, it stretches hundreds of feet from the board walk, with giant dunes studded with grasses a little farther south.

This beach would probably not be here right now if it weren't for the fact that tons of sand are brought in every few years to replenish it, especially after major storms.

"Beach replenishment serves as storm protection for the town of Ocean City. It's the equivalent of the levees in New Orleans for us," says Terry McGean, the Ocean City beach engineer. "They dredge sand from a couple miles offshore, and we pump that material onto the beach and basically bring the beach back."

Storms and erosion aren't new, but there's something else going on here, that's making every storm a little more serious: Tidal gauges here have measured an increase in sea level. It's gone up seven inches over 30 years -- that's 5.5 millimeters per year, and almost two feet per century.

Dr. John Boon, a professor emeritus with the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, says the sea level is rising throughout this region, and some parts have it particularly bad.

"We have relative sea-level rise rates that are the highest on the U.S. East Coast," he says.

You may wonder why or how sea level rise might be any different here versus anywhere else.

"The ocean circulation moves water masses to different parts of the globe, and gravity changes as ice masses at the polar regions melt, there's differential heating in the oceans," Boon says.

But in our region there's an extra factor: The ground is sinking. It's called "subsidence," and Boon says it's been going on for a while now.

"Ninety-thousand years ago, we had a very large ice mass to the north of us, an ice sheet of almost a mile thick. This placed a great load over the earth's surface up there, and in adjustment to that we had what is called a glacial forebulge," he says.

It's somewhat like stepping into a mud puddle.

"You notice around your foot where it sinks in there's a little bit of a bulge that arises...The land is the same way," Boon says.

So when the glaciers melted, the weight to the north lifted and our area started sinking back down like a seesaw. As if that wasn't enough, towns in the southern Bay are paying the price for an asteroid that hit 35 million years ago.

"That crater has created some regions in the southern Bay that seem to have higher subsidence rates than elsewhere," Boon says.

And then, on top of all of that, we have sea-level rise caused by global warming -- something that many scientists expect will accelerate here.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts sea level could rise in our region by as much as three feet over the next century. But the combination of all the different factors means the water is already rising everywhere in this region, and certain areas are seeing it more than others.

"People have noticed it with their piers and certainly...with storms over the last decade," says John Carlocke, a city planner for Hampton Roads, Va.

In Hampton roads, the rate of sea-level rise is currently about 1.5 feet over a century, if things stay the same -- let alone what's predicted with climate change.

"If we see a one-meter rise in sea level...considerable areas will flood...and you add a storm on top of that, and it's pretty ugly," he says.

Carlocke says they are starting to plan for it. Detailed studies are underway to figure out how to address flooding in certain neighborhoods, either with better drainage or pumping or barriers.

Back in Ocean City, engineer Terry McGean says building codes have been tightened to keep new construction and redevelopment higher up or further in from the water. But flooding has already become a problem around the bay separating Ocean City from the mainland.

"That's a tough one for us because, you know, the houses are where the houses are," he says.

If water levels keep rising the way scientists expect them to, at some point those houses won't be anywhere at all.

http://wamu.org/news/11/02/24/chesapeake_region_leads_east_coast_in_sea_level_rise.php

Rising Sea Level and More Severe Storms Threaten Eastern Seaboard
EPA Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Mid-Atlantic Coast Released Friday, Jan. 16

[San Francisco] A U.S. Environmental Protection Agency report released Friday finds that mid-Atlantic coastal states will experience a dramatic increase in storm surge flooding and coastal erosion because of climate change.

According to the 784-page report, few, if any, states are adequately prepared for this inevitable climate change-related impact and some shorelines already have been lost.

The report, “Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region,” finds that rising sea level will likely contribute to more frequent flooding of roads, railroads and airports, and could have major consequences for transportation and commerce. In addition, seawalls and drainage systems were designed without taking sea level rise into account, which could lead to disastrous results.

Highlights from the report include the following verbatim excerpts:

“Many coastal areas in the United States will experience an increased frequency and magnitude of storm-surge flooding and coastal erosion due to storms over the next century, in response to sea-level rise.” (p. 537)

“In the mid-Atlantic, between approximately 900,000 and 3,400,000 people (between 3 and 10 percent of the total population in the mid-Atlantic coastal region) live on parcels of land or city blocks with at least some land less than one meter above the monthly highest tides.” (p. 331)

“Rising sea level, combined with the possibility of an increase in the number of hurricanes and other severe weather related incidents, could cause increased inundation and more frequent flooding of roads, railroads, and airports, and could have major consequences for port facilities and coastal shipping.” (p. 357)

“Seawalls, bulkheads, dikes, sewers and drainage systems are designed based on the waves, water levels and rainfall experienced in the past. If conditions exceed what the designers expect disaster can result _ especially when sea level rises above the level of the land surface.” (p. 314)

“Rising sea level can elevate the water table (ground water) to the point where septic systems no longer function properly.” (p. 520)

“Some low-lying railroads, tunnels, ports, runways, and roads are already vulnerable to flooding and a rising sea level will only exacerbate the situation by causing more frequent and more serious disruption of transportation services.” (p. 354)

“Sea-level rise may also exacerbate pollution through inundation of upland sources of contamination such as landfills, industrial storage areas, or agricultural waste retention ponds.” (p. 240)

“’Ghost forests’ of standing dead trees killed by saltwater intrusion are becoming increasingly common in southern New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Louisiana and North Carolina.” (p. 60)

“Rising sea level is causing saltwater intrusion into estuaries and threatening freshwater resources in some parts of the mid-Atlantic region.” (p. 60)

“With a substantial acceleration of sea-level rise, traditional coastal engineering may not be economically or environmentally sustainable in some areas.” (p. 28)

“Short-term thinking often prevails. The costs of planning for hazards like sea-level rise are apparent today, while the benefits may not occur during the tenure of current elected officials.” (p. 495)

The EPA released the final document at 10 AM EST on Friday, Jan. 16. It is available at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/sap4-1.html)

The report, “Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region,” prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and released under the seal of the White House, is one in a series of analyses of global warming by federal agencies conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which coordinates the climate change research activities of U.S. government agencies.

The report assesses impacts of sea level rise on the infrastructure and ecosystems in New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, D.C., Virginia and North Carolina.
http://www.sealevelreport.com/

[Nichi]

The epicenter was in Myanmar, but it was felt in Thailand as well:

6.8 Magnitude Strikes NE Myanmar

[Nichi]

Psychology: Climate change hits home

Elke U. Weber
20 March 2011

Engaging the public with climate change has proved difficult, in part because they see the problem as remote. New evidence suggests that direct experience of one anticipated impact — flooding — increases people's concern and willingness to save energy.

In the face of political obstacles to achieving domestic and international agreements on the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions, policymakers are increasingly looking to individuals to voluntarily cut their energy use to curb emissions in the near term1. Unfortunately, most people living in western countries fail to install energy-saving technologies, even if doing so would save them money in the long run2. Furthermore, they show little motivation to change their lifestyles in ways that require personal sacrifice. Social scientists have attributed such reluctance to engage in energy-efficient behaviour at least in part to a lack of personal experience of the impacts of climate change3. Empirical evidence to support this hypothesis has, however, been scarce. Writing in Nature Climate Change, Spence and colleagues4 provide welcome evidence that direct experience of adverse climate impacts increases people's concern about climate change, as well as their perceived ability to tackle it and their willingness to act.

In most western countries, people lack personal experience of climate change, which is considered to have direct impacts on people's lives only in far-away places or the distant future. This situation contrasts with that of climate scientists, whose work can take them to locations where the impacts of climate change are clear, and whose training may also make them less reliant on personal experience to appreciate the risks. It is plausible that these effects explain the discrepancy in views about the magnitude and severity of the risks associated with climate change between the general public and climate scientists5 — the majority of whom see the risks as growing and believe that concerted action is needed to reduce them6. However, empirical evidence that personal experience of a risk motivates action to reduce it has been thin and inconclusive in the context of climate change.

Spence and co-workers4 surveyed a representative sample of the UK population to assess their perceptions and beliefs about climate change, as well as their willingness to conserve energy. Intense rainstorms have caused a number of severe floods in the UK over the past decade or so, and about a fifth of the people the authors surveyed had recently experienced flooding. Given that the link between increasing global temperatures and the likelihood of such rainstorms is now commonly made in the media, the authors assumed that respondents would tend to see flooding as evidence for climate change.

Using a sophisticated statistical method that aims to identify the factors that transmit or 'mediate' the effect of one variable on another, they were able to document what effect personal experience of flooding had on perceptions and beliefs about climate change, as well as the effect that these perceptions and beliefs in turn had on residents' intentions regarding energy use.

Several of the results are surprising and important. One might expect concern about climate change to go up in response to a recent experience of severe flooding, if indeed this experience is connected to climate change. One might also expect uncertainty about whether climate change is really happening to go down. Both of these reactions were observed. What is less obvious is that residents who had experienced flooding also felt more confident that their behaviour could have an effect on climate change, which in turn translated into greater preparedness to conserve energy, through efforts such as turning down the thermostat and not using 'standby' on electrical appliances.

Another noteworthy result is that residents' willingness to reduce their energy use was not related to their certainty (or uncertainty) about the existence of climate change; at least not above and beyond differences in their overall concern about climate change. This finding has ramifications for influencing and understanding the public's response to media coverage of the issue. Uncertainty about the existence of climate change — or at least about whether it is man-made and hence controllable — is one of the main arguments made by climate change sceptics against spending money to reduce emissions. Thus it is interesting that, for members of the British public, their motivation to reduce energy use does not seem to be related to their certainty that climate change is happening. Rather, it appears to be strongly influenced by whether they think their behaviour will be effective. This result supports recent calls to communicate the need for action to tackle climate change as a risk-management option, rather than a self-evident response to a predictable future7.

Spence and co-workers' use of a sample that is representative of the UK population as a whole and their assessment of 'mediating' perceptions and beliefs lend credence to their results. Previous failure to find a connection between personal experience of flooding and attitudes towards climate change8 may have been the result of surveying a small, idiosyncratic sample. Like any single study, however, the results have their limitations.

They are based on the difference in behaviour observed in two samples of residents, those who experienced flooding and those who did not, surveyed at the same point in time. Thus, the causal role of personal experience in changing perceptions and motivations must be assumed — as opposed to being shown directly, which would require following the perceptions and motivations of the same individuals over periods that include exposure to flooding. They are also based on respondents' own claims about their intentions, which may not reflect their actual behaviour. Future investigations should assess the effect that personal experience of adverse climate events have on actual — as opposed to intended — energy use.

Following the failed climate change negotiations in Copenhagen, the prospects for sufficient public concern about climate change and political will to reduce carbon emissions have seemed dim. However, recent events in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries have shown, albeit in a very different context, that increases in the perceived effectiveness of individual and collective action can change attitudes and behaviours quickly and dramatically; in this case the willingness of ordinary citizens to rise up against autocratic rulers. The results reported by Spence and colleagues provide a glimmer of hope that similar 'tipping point' dynamics might exist in the domain of climate change, a prospect that is strengthened by recent evidence that further links flooding to climate change.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1070.html

[Nichi]

Bolivia enshrines natural world's rights with equal status for Mother Earth

Law of Mother Earth expected to prompt radical new conservation and social measures in South American nation       

    John Vidal in La Paz
    guardian.co.uk, Sunday 10 April 2011 18.17 BST
   

Bolivia is set to pass the world's first laws granting all nature equal rights to humans. The Law of Mother Earth, now agreed by politicians and grassroots social groups, redefines the country's rich mineral deposits as "blessings" and is expected to lead to radical new conservation and social measures to reduce pollution and control industry.

The country, which has been pilloried by the US and Britain in the UN climate talks for demanding steep carbon emission cuts, will establish 11 new rights for nature. They include: the right to life and to exist; the right to continue vital cycles and processes free from human alteration; the right to pure water and clean air; the right to balance; the right not to be polluted; and the right to not have cellular structure modified or genetically altered.

Controversially, it will also enshrine the right of nature "to not be affected by mega-infrastructure and development projects that affect the balance of ecosystems and the local inhabitant communities".

"It makes world history. Earth is the mother of all", said Vice-President Alvaro García Linera. "It establishes a new relationship between man and nature, the harmony of which must be preserved as a guarantee of its regeneration."

The law, which is part of a complete restructuring of the Bolivian legal system following a change of constitution in 2009, has been heavily influenced by a resurgent indigenous Andean spiritual world view which places the environment and the earth deity known as the Pachamama at the centre of all life. Humans are considered equal to all other entities.

But the abstract new laws are not expected to stop industry in its tracks. While it is not clear yet what actual protection the new rights will give in court to bugs, insects and ecosystems, the government is expected to establish a ministry of mother earth and to appoint an ombudsman. It is also committed to giving communities new legal powers to monitor and control polluting industries.

Bolivia has long suffered from serious environmental problems from the mining of tin, silver, gold and other raw materials. "Existing laws are not strong enough," said Undarico Pinto, leader of the 3.5m-strong Confederación Sindical Única de Trabajadores Campesinos de Bolivia, the biggest social movement, who helped draft the law. "It will make industry more transparent. It will allow people to regulate industry at national, regional and local levels."

Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca said Bolivia's traditional indigenous respect for the Pachamama was vital to prevent climate change. "Our grandparents taught us that we belong to a big family of plants and animals. We believe that everything in the planet forms part of a big family. We indigenous people can contribute to solving the energy, climate, food and financial crises with our values," he said.

Little opposition is expected to the law being passed because President Evo Morales's ruling party, the Movement Towards Socialism, enjoys a comfortable majority in both houses of parliament.

However, the government must tread a fine line between increased regulation of companies and giving way to the powerful social movements who have pressed for the law. Bolivia earns $500m (£305m) a year from mining companies which provides nearly one third of the country's foreign currency.

In the indigenous philosophy, the Pachamama is a living being.

The draft of the new law states: "She is sacred, fertile and the source of life that feeds and cares for all living beings in her womb. She is in permanent balance, harmony and communication with the cosmos. She is comprised of all ecosystems and living beings, and their self-organisation."

Ecuador, which also has powerful indigenous groups, has changed its constitution to give nature "the right to exist, persist, maintain and regenerate its vital cycles, structure, functions and its processes in evolution". However, the abstract rights have not led to new laws or stopped oil companies from destroying some of the most biologically rich areas of the Amazon.
Coping with climate change

Bolivia is struggling to cope with rising temperatures, melting glaciers and more extreme weather events including more frequent floods, droughts, frosts and mudslides.

Research by glaciologist Edson Ramirez of San Andres University in the capital city, La Paz, suggests temperatures have been rising steadily for 60 years and started to accelerate in 1979. They are now on course to rise a further 3.5-4C over the next 100 years. This would turn much of Bolivia into a desert.

Most glaciers below 5,000m are expected to disappear completely within 20 years, leaving Bolivia with a much smaller ice cap. Scientists say this will lead to a crisis in farming and water shortages in cities such as La Paz and El Alto.

Evo Morales, Latin America's first indigenous president, has become an outspoken critic in the UN of industrialised countries which are not prepared to hold temperatures to a 1C rise.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/10/bolivia-enshrines-natural-worlds-rights

[Michael]

Oh boy, that's a sign of the future ... if we have one

[Nichi]

Oh boy, that's a sign of the future ... if we have one

Wouldn't it be nice!

[Nichi]

Continental US has a plethora of disaster afoot:

Tornadoes, floods, and fires assault the nation   
By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 6:04 PM GMT on April 26, 2011

A 1/2 mile-wide tornado smashed through Vilonia, Arkansas last night, killing four and destroying 50 - 80 houses. Vilonia is a small town of 3,800 north of Little Rock. The storm system responsible produced 38 suspected tornadoes yesterday, and also dumped 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Arkansas and southern Missouri. Flash flooding from the heavy rains killed four people in Arkansas last night. The heavy rains have also resulted in overtopping of the Black River levee near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, and over 500 homes have been evacuated in the town due to fears that the levee might fail. Poplar Bluff has received 12.86" of rain over the past three days, as of 11am EDT this morning. The greatest rain gauge-measured precipitation from the storm occurred in Springdale, Arkansas, where 17.09" inches has fallen.


Animation of a supercell thunderstorm 45 minutes after it produced the Viloni, Arkansas tornado at 7:25 pm CDT.


Radar-estimated precipitation from last night's storms.

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected today

Yesterday's tornado outbreak was merely a warm-up for today's onslaught, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued their highest level of severe weather potential, a "High Risk" forecast, for Northeast Texas and Southern Arkansas. This is just the second time this year that SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast--the other was for the devastating North Carolina tornado outbreak of April 16, which generated 52 tornadoes that killed 26 people. Severe thunderstorms have already rumbled across Louisiana and Mississippi this morning, but today's main action is expected to erupt late this afternoon and early this evening in the "high risk" area. The tornado and severe weather outbreak will continue on Wednesday, when severe weather is expected to be concentrated in Tennessee and Kentucky, with a "moderate risk" of tornadoes. Preliminary tornado reports for the year 2011 show that this year is probably the busiest tornado season on record for this point in the season.


Severe weather threat for Tuesday, April 26, 2011.


<span data-s9e-mediaembed="youtube" style="display:inline-block;width:100%;max-width:640px"><span style="display:block;overflow:hidden;position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%"><iframe allowfullscreen="" loading="lazy" scrolling="no" style="background:url(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/09noMnsz_Ns/hqdefault.jpg) 50% 50% / cover;border:0;height:100%;left:0;position:absolute;width:100%" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/09noMnsz_Ns"></iframe></span></span><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/09noMnsz_Ns?fs=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/09noMnsz_Ns?fs=1</a>
Chaser video of the Viloni, Arkansas tornado of April 25, 2011.

Extremely critical fire danger in Texas and New Mexico today

Spring storms commonly bring high winds to the Midwest this time of year, but today's storm will bring exceptionally high winds--and no precipitation--to the drought-stricken regions of West Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, an "extremely critical" fire weather day has been declared by the National Weather Service for the region, where high temperatures, low humidities, and powerful winds gusting to 60 mph will occur. The 24,000 acre Last Chance fire burning 33 miles southwest of Carlsbad, New Mexico near the Texas border is a particular concern, since it is currently 0% contained and is threatening many structures. This fire is expected to rage out of control today, thanks to humidities near 5%, temperatures in the low 90s, sustained winds near 40 mph, and gusts to 60 mph.


Fire weather forecast for today from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

2011 sets record for most acreage burned for April

According to the Interagency Fire Center, wildfires in 2011 have already burned nearly 2.3 million acres in the U.S. This is the greatest acreage on record so early in the year, and is more area than burned all of last year. The largest U.S. acreage to burn since 1960 was the 9.9 million acres that burned in 2007, so we area already 25% of the way to the all-time record fire year--with summer still more than a month away. Last night, a line of thunderstorms brought heavy rains of 2 - 3 inches from Dallas southeastwards through Louisiana, providing precious rains to a portion of Texas that was under their worst drought since 1925. However, the portion of Texas that has seen the worst wildfires received no rain.