Topic: Around the Globe in Real Time

[Nichi]

Urban sprawl, weather patterns could dictate new sinkholes

Associated Press

As workers piled the last mounds of gravel on the sinkhole that engulfed a Florida man, geologists and experts say they expect to see more sinkhole sightings throughout the state in the coming years.

Urban sprawl, well-water drilling and fluctuating weather patterns all lead to sinkhole collapses and could bring more of the phenomenon to populated areas, said Jonathan Arthur, Florida's state geologist.

"As our footprint on the land increases, the likelihood we'll encounter sinkholes will increase," Arthur said. "The activity we engage in that affects the subsurface land and water can trigger sinkholes as well."

Sinkhole claims jumped from 2,360 in 2006 to 6,694 in 2010, the last year such data was collected, at a cost of $1.4 billion, according to a 2010 report by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation.

However, a Florida law passed in 2011 has made it more difficult to compel insurance companies to pay for expensive subsurface testing for sinkholes, drastically decreasing the number of claims — and testing, said Anthony Randazzo, a former University of Florida geology professor and current president of GeoHazard, a company that specializes in evaluating sinkholes.

"We've seen a big downturn in insurance-related claims at our business," he said.

The sinkhole that opened under a home in Seffner, Fla., about 15 miles east of Tampa, was extremely rare in that it resulted in loss of life, Arthur said. There have been only two other deaths ever in the state related to sinkholes, he said.

At about 11 p.m. Thursday, Jeff Bush, 37, was in his bedroom in the one-story home on Faithview Drive when a 20-foot-wide sinkhole yawned directly under him, taking him, his bed and the rest of his bedroom furniture, according to Hillsborough County Fire Rescue.

His brother jumped into the hole to save him but had to be rescued himself by a sheriff's deputy. Five other residents, including a small child, made it out of the home unharmed. Two adjoining houses — one on either side of Bush's — were also evacuated.

Rescue workers called off the search for Bush's body over the weekend when the area around the hole became too unstable and a backhoe demolished the home earlier this week. On Tuesday, workers removed the home's concrete foundation and dumped the last of four truckloads of gravel to fill the hole, said Willie Puz, a Hillsborough County spokesman. Code enforcement officers were still trying to determine if the two neighboring homes would also be demolished, he said.

Another sinkhole was reported on Monday about 2 miles away, Puz said. That hole, located between the yards of two homes, was about 12 feet around and not directly endangering any home, he said.

According to CoreLogic, an Irvine, Calif.-based firm that analyzes sinkhole data, there are more than 15,000 verified sinkholes in Florida, including 23 sinkholes within a mile of the one that took Bush. There are more sinkholes in Florida than any other state, according to the firm.

Sometimes sinkholes are triggered by natural weather patterns. When Tropical Storm Debbie dumped 20 inches of rain on drought-stricken Florida last year, more than 200 sinkholes were reported across the state within a few days, Arthur said. The sudden dry-to-wet fluctuation caused underground limestone caverns to collapse, triggering the sinkholes, he said.

Other times, workers drilling a water well or new homes built atop of weak limestone formations can cause sinkholes, Randazzo said. As Florida's population continues to grow, so will the risk of sinkholes, he said.

In 2005, Randazzo surveyed a home about a half-mile from the site of last week's deadly incident on behalf of an insurance company. After careful subsurface testing, a weak underground limestone cavern was detected and 500 cubic yards of grout was trucked in to fill it up, saving the home from a sinkhole collapse, he said.

But such specialized testing is becoming increasingly rare in the wake of the 2011 law. Florida lawmakers passed the law in response to insurers' claims that too many of the sinkhole claims were frivolous and the tests expensive, Randazzo said. But the law may have swung too far in the other direction, he said.

Jeremy Bush, the victim's brother who tried saving him from the sinkhole, has said that someone came to the home a few months before the incident to check for sinkholes but told the family there was nothing to worry about.

"It's a real tough situation now that everyone's facing," Randazzo said.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/03/05/sinkhole-florida-law/1965743/

[Nichi]

I foresee a season with many more storms with origins in the Tropics, rather than the Subtropics that dominated 2012. This means that storms will be capable of tapping into larger amounts of ocean heat content, that have sat untouched by any Major Hurricane for years now. This means more Hurricanes, on top of more Major Hurricanes. The instability stands at average levels, which will be capable of allowing a couple of seriously dangerous storms this year. The other atmospheric conditions present will also allow an Above Average amount of storms to get going in the Atlantic. Though Warm waters sit out near the Cape Verde Islands, the tropical waves that emerge into the Eastern Atlantic off of Africa, will prefer to escape the Saharan Dust and possible Positive NAO that may bring stronger Trade Winds if the NAO were to flip throughout the season. These conditions in the Eastern Atlantic would result in more storms forming from these same tropical waves just farther west. This chain reaction of factors would then mean places like the Caribbean Islands, Central America, and the US would be in the Threat Zone.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneDean07/comment.html?entrynum=39

[erik]

Have you prepared the storm/tornado shelter Michael suggested?

[Nichi]

Have you prepared the storm/tornado shelter Michael suggested?

I don't recall that.
Taimi asked me something about basement shelters, and I explained that they don't install basements here anymore, per the sea level. And I remember that you once told me, probably a few years ago, that the house should just be converted to a bunker.

The only reasonable option would be to move far, far away.
Not on the horizon at the moment.
 

[erik]

Right, it was Taimi's question:

Why don't you have a storm shelter? Digged in the ground like a cellar?

You know, they build completely waterproof concrete cellars/structures into a very wet soil/water nowadays. It is an absolutely common practice even in small houses (at least here) and these things are built with incredible speed.

I'd reckon it is time for strategy-making for the very near future. The writing is on the wall for several regions and areas. Not pushing you in any way and anywhere, but thinking about the willingness and readiness to face whatever is coming your way. Earlier you described how you lost interest to live quite some time ago, but kept ticking; now it might be increasingly for real.

Tests and challenges to our warrior's nature and stamina keep growing in number and intensity. Are the determination and readiness to see it all through in a particular/chosen way still there?

[Taimyr]

I was thinking, you wouldn't even need a cellar, it would probably be enough to have a small concrete room in the house. Some storms do move cars, but a concrete room should be heavy enough. I mean there could be just a normal size room, just the walls, floor and ceiling are concrete.

[Nichi]

The darker the red, the more visible to the region.

[Jahn]

OK, that is actually today.

Good old Kingu, always some fascinating phase going on.

[Nichi]

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle2001/SE2013May10Agoogle.html

[Nichi]

Violent tornado devastates Moore, Oklahoma

A massive and violent tornado at least a mile wide smashed through Moore, Oklahoma near 3 pm CDT Monday, causing catastrophic damage along a 20-mile long path. The National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma has rated the tornado at least an EF-4 (166 - 200 mph winds), and detailed damage surveys may upgrade this rating to the top-end EF-5 level in the coming days. Damage was extreme and covered a huge area, and many buildings swept away down to their foundations. The tornado was on the ground for 40 minutes, from 2:56 - 3:56 pm CDT, and a tornado warning for the storm was issued at 2:40 pm CDT, sixteen minutes before it touched down. The debris ball from the tornado, as seen on Doppler radar, expanded to over two miles in diameter, and debris was carried over 100 miles from Moore. The National Weather Service office in Tulsa, Oklahoma reported at 4:13 pm CDT that they were "seeing reports of light tornado debris falling in the Tulsa metro area again this evening, likely from the Moore area." Tulsa is 100 miles east-northeast of Moore.



Figure 1. The news helicopter from kfor.com caught this image of the shocking near-total destruction of a huge area of Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013.

Moore tornado likely to be one of the five most damaging tornadoes in history

Moore has the unenviable distinction of having previously experienced the 4th costliest tornado in world history, the notorious May 3, 1999 Bridgecreek-Moore EF-5 tornado. There have been only six billion-dollar (2011 dollars) tornadoes in history:

1) Joplin, Missouri, May 22, 2011, $2.8 billion
2) Topeka, Kansas, June 8, 1966, $1.7 billion
3) Lubbock, Texas, May 11, 19780, $1.5 billion
4) Bridge Creek-Moore, Oklahoma, May 3, 1999, $1.4 billion
5) Xenia, Ohio, April 3, 1974, $1.1 billion
6) Omaha, Nebraska, May 6, 1975, $1 billion

The May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore tornado killed 36 people and injured 583. It damaged or destroyed 8132 homes, 1041 apartments, 260 businesses, 11 public buildings and seven churches. According to rough estimates of the size of the damaged area made by helicopters operated by news9.com and kfor.com, the damage footprint from the May 20, 2013 tornado is easily twice as large. I expect that after the damage tally from the May 20 tornado is added up, Moore will hold two of the top five spots on the list of most damaging tornadoes in history, and the May 20 tornado may approach the Joplin tornado as the costliest twister of all-time.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2412

The count so far, at 2am EST, is 51, which they expect to rise to 91 before the night is over. (40 bodies are in the midst of being processed by the medical examiner.)

[Nichi]

The count so far, at 2am EST, is 51, which they expect to rise to 91 before the night is over. (40 bodies are in the midst of being processed by the medical examiner.)

Interestingly, even though Oklahoma is in the midst of "Tornado Alley", there aren't many basement shelters there.  One of the elementary schools which got hit did have a basement shelter, to which the kids evacuated.  They drowned there.

[Nichi]

They've adjusted the death count from 51/91 to 24. That doesn't happen often. They said that they had misassessed the thing, assuming that so many had been sent to funeral homes instead of to the medical examiner's.

[Nichi]

Here's an amazing video filmed from the inside of a storm shelter. He got some weird angles, and it's hard to tell exactly what his shelter must be. I'm gathering it was at least partly underground, with a very strong window at the top. You can see how the windows across the street got blown out.

I saw him being interviewed on CNN. He was still in high-adrenaline mode, and said that he/his family fared safely, and that at the time, he was anxious to get across the street to one of the elementary schools which got hit.

<span data-s9e-mediaembed="youtube" style="display:inline-block;width:100%;max-width:640px"><span style="display:block;overflow:hidden;position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%"><iframe allowfullscreen="" loading="lazy" scrolling="no" style="background:url(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/v3o6wTcy4UQ/hqdefault.jpg) 50% 50% / cover;border:0;height:100%;left:0;position:absolute;width:100%" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/v3o6wTcy4UQ"></iframe></span></span><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/v3o6wTcy4UQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/v3o6wTcy4UQ</a>

[Michael]

Devastation for those unlucky to be in its path. I expect no one is saying anything about these things getting bigger.

[Nichi]

Devastation for those unlucky to be in its path. I expect no one is saying anything about these things getting bigger.

Only if you know where to look do you see such discussion.