Author Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!  (Read 30806 times)

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1785 on: September 08, 2012, 05:26:19 PM »
The conflict in Syria is approaching a stage where it may become much more than a challenge to the values of Western societies. It could pose a clear and present danger, to use the language of Tom Clancy. Persistent fighting along the line from Aleppo in the north to Deraa in the south, shrinking control of the countryside by al-Assad’s forces, and growing external support for both sides of the conflict underline the radical nature of the Syrian civil war.

It was evident for some time that the WMD stockpiles (VX, sarin and mustard gases plus several biological agents) of the al-Assad regime would become a very important variable in the calculus of the war. On the one hand, the use of WMD against the population may serve as a tool of ultimate terror or the last act of vengeance by al-Assad. On the other hand, both rebels and al-Assad know perfectly well that the plausible threat of WMD proliferation or their deployment in the civil war is likely to trigger a resolute military response from the Western powers. At the beginning of September 2012, one can only wonder about the security and safety of Syrian WMD facilities in Aleppo, Homs, Hamaa, Damascus, Latakia, Palmyra, and elsewhere.

Some conclusions about deteriorating situation can be drawn from the warnings issued by US President Obama (21.08.2012), by British Prime Minister Cameron (23.08.2012) and by French Foreign Minister Fabius (3.09.2012) regarding the use of WMD in the civil war or their relocation to the front. Syria has previously declared (23.07.2012) that its weapons of mass destruction would be used only against external aggressors. By coincidence, it happened to be the first official admission of the existence of a WMD arsenal by the Syrian authorities.

What military options are there to back up the stern warnings by the US, UK and French heads of state? As it turns out, the situation is rather complicated. According to the former Chief of Staff of Armee de l’Air General Jean Fleury (Le Monde, 23.08.2012), the French Air Force – if it acted alone – would be hard-pressed to deal with its Syrian counterpart and air defences. Armee de l’Air would be outnumbered 2:1 in terms of aircraft. While French air power has higher quality, the size and the level of training of the Syrian Air Force would necessitate a NATO air operation. General Jean Rannou, former Commander of Armee de l’Air, has assessed the Alliance’s military operation in Syria as feasible, but ‘heavy’ (EUObserver 10.08.2011). In Rannou’s words, there should not be insurmountable military problems for NATO, but there is no certainty that military intervention would improve the overall situation. Moreover, the air operations would have to pave the way for the insertion of ground troops as the attempts to destroy chemical and biological weapons from the air are likely to have undesired consequences for the local population.

The US Central Command has estimated that nearly 75,000 troops would be required on the ground to secure the Syrian chemical weapons (Rand Blog, 26.07.2012), whereas the latest news suggests 50,000-60,000 troops and some support units (Reuters, 16.08.2012). These forces would focus only on WMD security and would be unavailable for other tasks. The size of a peace enforcement contingent required after the end of the civil war has been estimated at more than 300,000 personnel (Peacefare.net, 22.07.2012).

Thus we seem to face a problem of enormous dimensions, a problem which reduces the statements by President Obama, by Prime Minister Cameron and by Foreign Minister Fabius merely to attempts to draw a red line for themselves and Syrian leaders. However, it is not quite clear what will follow if the line is crossed. The scale of the problem beggars belief, the available military options require engagement of NATO, and the post-conflict peace enforcement task could be beyond anybody’s capability.

Survivors of the Bosnian civil war have described the Syrian war as ‘hell’, exceeding everything that Bosnia witnessed 20 years ago (Associated Press, 30.08.2012). All we can do is to prepare for a long haul as it usually takes a lot of time for hell to freeze over.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2012, 05:55:22 PM by erik »

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1786 on: September 08, 2012, 10:52:15 PM »
Good points Juhani.
As you probably know, the situation is far more complex and serious than the survival of the Alawites and their WMDs. This conflict has opened up old wounds and divisions going back centuries. If that were not enough, it has also opened up very current divisions in the whole Middle East.

Egypt is not playing ball any more, with anyone. Morsi's recent attack on Syria at the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Iran, of all places, sent shock waves through the Islamic world, and has placed Iran isolated and against the wall. The US don't know what to do with a man who isn't playing by the rule book.

The US don't know what to do with Netanyahu's sabre rattling either. They know Israel doesn't have the technical capacity to cease Iran's nuclear development, as do the Israeli military and security.

Essentially the entire boiling pot of the Middle East is being tipped over the edge by Syria, and the US is no longer in a position to act effectively - not sure they ever have been, or wanted to be, as that would require feet on the ground way beyond the US's power.

One thing is certain, things surrounding Syria will deteriorate. This whole mess has provided a fillip to the Islamic jihad in all those countries, including Iraq.

Aside from Iran's nuclear capacity, I'm not sure what immediate interest the US have, apart from the maintenance of a stable domain for business, which is as important for them as the EU is for Germany. But after all, it is a long way from America, and now that the North American shale oil has become abundant, there is good reason to let the buggers sort out their own problems, and call us when they want to do business again.

Of course, that's not an option for the US or the EU, but it may well be the reality.

I don't see this as causing a global catastrophe, where we all run for our shelters. It is a catastrophe for those in the Middle East, including Israel, but for once, Israel is not a direct protagonist in any of this - only the unfortunate recipient of collateral damage from violent neighbours. And Israel has it's own problems, economic and social, so best to avoid settling there for the time being.

What if the US sent in the cruise missiles to Iran's nuclear facilities now? Iran has few friends and many enemies, so I can't see what they could do effectively in retaliation, outside what they are already doing.

Alas, George and Tony scuttled all moral authority when they invaded Iraq on a pure fabrication. The world will not be happy about them acting unilaterally again - but I'm not sure it will cause any damaging reaction.

One thing is now becoming clear, we are seeing the redrawing of maps in the Middle East. I'd be surprised if Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and many other surrounding nations escape from a melt down of boarders.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1787 on: September 13, 2012, 04:44:38 PM »
Psychopathic Traits: What Successful Presidents Have in Common

Read more: http://healthland.time.com/2012/09/11/psychopathic-traits-what-successful-presidents-have-in-common/#ixzz26KV80HO9

Political partisans delight in labeling opposition leaders as malign or even psychopathic — but it turns out that U.S. presidents with high levels of certain psychopathic traits may actually do better on the job, no matter what their party affiliation, according to new research.
 
The study, which was based on presidential performance ratings and personality assessments by hundreds of historians and biographers in several different surveys, found that one psychopathic characteristic in particular was linked to success in presidency: fearless dominance.
 
“An easy way to think about it is as a combination of physical and social fearlessness,” says Scott Lilienfeld, lead author of the study and professor of psychology at Emory University. “People high in boldness don’t have a lot of apprehension about either physical or social things that would scare the rest of us.”
 
He adds, “It’s often a kind of resilience because you don’t show lot of anxiety or frustration in the face of everyday life challenges.” While that sounds like a necessity for dealing with the daily crises that face the White House, from hurricanes to threats from rogue nuclear nations, the same trait in psychopaths is also associated with callousness, indifference to negative consequences and impulsive antisocial behavior.
 
It’s not to say that American presidents are full-blown psychopaths — they didn’t rate high in all categories of psychopathic traits. Overall, the study found, presidents tended to be more like psychopaths than the general population in their level of fearless dominance, but they didn’t show a psychopathic excess of impulsive antisocial behavior. Although “some might think presidents are extremely psychopathic,” Lilienfeld says, the combination of traits that make them successful can’t all be characterized as such. “They need to be bold and self confident to be willing to run, but they also have to have an amazing capacity to delay gratification and a lot of impulse control, at least in some domains.”
 
All U.S. presidents from George Washington to George W. Bush were included in the research (there was not yet enough data for President Obama). Researchers had 121 experts use standardized psychological assessment methods to rate the presidents’ personalities, based on their biographical information before they were elected. These evaluations were then compared with ratings of job performance compiled in two surveys of presidential historians: a 2009 C-Span poll of 62 presidential historians and a 2010 Siena College survey of 238 historians.
 
Topping the chart in fearless dominance were Teddy Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy, with FDR, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton not far behind. George W. Bush came in 10th on this measure — Rutherford Hayes, Zachary Taylor, Martin Van Buren and Andrew Jackson were also in the top 10 — illustrating that fearless dominance isn’t always associated with positive decision-making, or success.
 
Indeed, it’s a double-edged sword: if your boldness allows you to ignore both your own fears and the concerns of others, it can be easy to veer off into recklessness, dismissing important problems that should rightly grab your attention. A recent New York Times op-ed on George W. Bush’s refusal to heed early warnings from the CIA about Osama bin Laden’s planned attacks on America suggests as much.
 
Of course, circumstance and luck can also play a large role in whether a decision is later seen as courageous or psychopathic — and in whether a presidency is considered a success or a failure. “Probably the biggest determinant of presidential success is luck,” says Lilienfeld. Interestingly, however, at least one of the surveys included in the study suggests that fearless types can influence their own luck: ratings of presidential luck were also linked with individuals’ degree of fearless dominance.
 
Lilienfeld cautions that his study can’t determine when a president’s fearless dominance crosses the line from confident courage to recklessness: there wasn’t enough data to determine whether extremely high levels of fearless dominance may be counterproductive, though it seems intuitively likely. He also notes that the overall effect of such boldness on performance was small: there are numerous factors that go into the making of a president, and this was only one.
 
Moreover, bold leadership isn’t just a quality found in psychopaths — or presidents. Everyone falls somewhere along the scale, from timid to bold, from follower to leader. And psychopathic traits like fearless dominance — or others like impulsivity, callousness and dishonesty — also appear in varying degrees in the general population. “I think the evidence increasingly points in the direction that these traits are on a continuum like height and weight: they are things all of us have to some degree. It’s probably not all or none,” Lilienfeld says.  Shadings of potential pathology are found in everyone.
 
For those who rate high in both the psychopathic traits of boldness and impulsive, antisocial behavior, however, it’s likely that the balance between these two qualities could make the difference between whether they become a violent criminal or a (shady but) wealthy business leader.
 
“My mentor, David Lykken, argued that psychopaths and heroes are ‘twigs off of the same branch.’ It may be that the fearless dominance or boldness that sometimes gives rise to psychopathy might also sometimes give rise to heroism,” says Lilienfeld.
 
The research was published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

Offline Nichi

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1788 on: September 14, 2012, 05:40:21 PM »
I'm seeing insane rhetoric and escalating hysteria - on all sides- around the Chris Stevens event in Libya.  One of the more disturbing accusations is that Obama and Hillary Clinton knew 48 hours beforehand that things were going to take an ugly turn, yet no warning or alert-elevation was put in place.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2012, 05:42:53 PM by Nichi »
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erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1789 on: September 14, 2012, 06:32:27 PM »
I'm seeing insane rhetoric and escalating hysteria - on all sides- around the Chris Stevens event in Libya.  One of the more disturbing accusations is that Obama and Hillary Clinton knew 48 hours beforehand that things were going to take an ugly turn, yet no warning or alert-elevation was put in place.

It all is about electing yet another fearless dominator.  ;)

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1790 on: September 14, 2012, 08:11:31 PM »
The little I picked up was that Chris Stevens misread the situation. He was the expert - he should have known the complexities involved. Unfortunately, he seems to have been a very unique guy - it is such a waste of these unique people, as there aren't that many available.

I heard today about the escalation of this film thing. Something weird is afoot - what the 'West' dismisses as the works of cranks throws the Islamic world into a frenzy. It doesn't bode well for co-existence.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2012, 08:13:24 PM by Michael »

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1791 on: September 14, 2012, 08:35:01 PM »
Globalised world is a barrel of gunpowder because of the overwhelming stupidity and inclination to follow one's emotions.

It is so easy to manipulate instincts and emotions - which we see happening. That movie they talk about (I watched its 13 min. trailer) is nothing but rubbing Torah in everybody's face, shitting on Islam, and provocation for these violent idiots.

And I cling to nothing, so I will have nothing to defend. Don Juan aka Donaldo

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1792 on: September 14, 2012, 08:47:43 PM »
Globalised world is a barrel of gunpowder

 ;)

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1793 on: September 14, 2012, 08:54:47 PM »
;)

You know how KGB manipulated the temperature of the US-Israeli relations? When they were becoming too good, and the US inclined to arm Israel a bit too enthusiastically, the brave KGB guys painted at night swastikas all over the synagogs in Washington DC and New York. The next day Israeli ambassador was in the State Dept. with official complaint.

The same worked with the UN and African states. It only took sending some letters to African embassies under the guise of Ku Klux Klan to get Africans go ballistic.

Elementary - and global - nowadays.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1794 on: September 14, 2012, 09:01:20 PM »

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1795 on: September 14, 2012, 10:32:12 PM »
Insha'Allah, perfect coincidence!

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1796 on: September 21, 2012, 11:11:09 PM »
For the record:

<span data-s9e-mediaembed="youtube" style="display:inline-block;width:100%;max-width:640px"><span style="display:block;overflow:hidden;position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%"><iframe allowfullscreen="" loading="lazy" scrolling="no" style="background:url(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/TQmz6Rbpnu0/hqdefault.jpg) 50% 50% / cover;border:0;height:100%;left:0;position:absolute;width:100%" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TQmz6Rbpnu0"></iframe></span></span><br /><a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/TQmz6Rbpnu0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/TQmz6Rbpnu0</a>

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1797 on: September 30, 2012, 04:59:30 PM »
'A great silence is spreading over the natural world'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/03/bernie-krause-natural-world-recordings (there are several soundtracks within the original article)

"The birds are silent in the woods.
Just wait: Soon enough
You will be quiet too"
- Robert Hass

When musician and naturalist Bernie Krause drops his microphones into the pristine coral reef waters of Fiji, he picks up a raucous mix of sighs, beats, glissandos, cries, groans, tones, grunts, beats and clicks.

The water pulsates with the sound of creatures vying for acoustic bandwidth. He hears crustaceans, parrot fish, anemones, wrasses, sharks, shrimps, puffers and surgeonfish. Some gnash their teeth, others use their bladders or tails to make sound. Sea anemones grunt and belch. Every creature on the reef makes its own sound.

But half a mile away, where the same reef is badly damaged, he can only pick up the sound of waves and a few snapping shrimp. It is, he says, the desolate sound of extinction.

Krause, whose electronic music with Paul Beaver was used on classic films like Rosemary's Baby and Apocalypse Now, and who worked regularly with Bob Dylan, George Harrison and The Byrds, has spent 40 years recording over 15,000 species, collecting 4,500 hours of sound from many of the world's pristine habitats.

But such is the rate of species extinction and the deterioration of pristine habitat that he estimates half these recordings are now archives, impossible to repeat because the habitats no longer exist or because they have been so compromised by human noise. His tapes are possibly the only record of the original diversity of life in these places.

"A great silence is spreading over the natural world even as the sound of man is becoming deafening," he writes in a new book, The Great Animal Orchestra. "Little by little the vast orchestra of life, the chorus of the natural world, is in the process of being quietened. There has been a massive decrease in the density and diversity of key vocal creatures, both large and small. The sense of desolation extends beyond mere silence.

"If you listen to a damaged soundscape … the community [of life] has been altered, and organisms have been destroyed, lost their habitat or been left to re-establish their places in the spectrum. As a result, some voices are gone entirely, while others aggressively compete to establish a new place in the increasingly disjointed chorus."

Hawaii, he says, is the extinction capital of the world. "In a couple of centuries since the islands were populated by Europeans, half the 140 bird species have disappeared. In Madagascar, 15 species of lemur, an elephant bird, a pygmy hippo and an estimated half of all the animals have gone extinct."

Even partially disturbed habitats lose much of their life for many years, says Krause. Recordings of a meadow in the Sierra Nevada mountains east of San Francisco before the surrounding forest was selectively logged in the 1980s sounds very different to when Krause returned a year later.

"The overall richness of sound was gone, as was the thriving density and diversity of birds. The only prominent sounds were the stream and the hammering of a Williamson's sapsucker. Over the 20 years I have returned a dozen times to the same spot at the same time of year but the bio-acoustic vitality I had captured before logging has not yet returned."

One in four mammals is threatened with extinction, he says. With the exception of a few sites, frog populations are in decline worldwide and birds are beginning to show radical signs of territorial shifting.

"Things are beginning to quiet down in the pristine habitats. The combination of shrinking habitat and increasing human pandemonium have produced conditions under which the channels … necessary for creature survival are being completely overloaded. The voices of the wild in their purest states where no [human] noise is present are splendid symphonies."

But the wild natural world, comprised of vast areas not managed by humans, rarely exists now except in a few isolated places such as the Alaskan wilderness, the far Canadian north, Siberia, the pampas of Argentina and Uruguay, and the Brazilian Pantanal which are still rich with natural sound, he says.

"The fragile weave of natural sound is being torn apart by our seemingly boundless need to conquer the environment rather than to find a way to abide in consonance with it."

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1798 on: September 30, 2012, 05:10:51 PM »
America's miasma of misinformation on climate change

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/sep/23/america-miasma-misinformation-climate-change

Since 1950, humans have manufactured more goods than have ever existed in history. Our consumption of those goods – a highly inefficient use of our natural capital – has wrought a long list of environmental consequences. Staggering deforestation, check. Increasing greenhouse gas emissions, check. Rising heat, sea level, and incidence of extreme weather events – check, check and check.

To environmental experts, such evidence is the proverbial writing on the wall: we must transition to a low-carbon economy, stat, in order to avoid irrevocable damage. As President Obama affirmed, upon accepting his party's nomination for president, no less:

"Climate change is not a hoax. More droughts and floods and wildfires are not a joke. They're a threat to our children's future."

The president's choice of words seemed a pointed response to Republican Senator James Inhofe, author of The Greatest Hoax and, it's worth noting, recipient of $1.3m in campaign contributions from the oil and gas lobby.

Political maneuvering aside, why are Americans so disengaged from climate change – arguably, one of the most critical problems of our time?

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt; it's also in places like North Carolina and perhaps even embedded into America's cultural DNA. According to the latest study from the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, the American public's concern about global warming can be sorted into six categories, ranging from alarmed (13%) and concerned (26%), to cautious, disengaged, doubtful and dismissive (that's the other 61% of us). Among the many explanations offered for the knowledge gap are clashing worldviews, varying education levels, demographics, and the media's handling of the issue.

Even as evidence for climate change mounts and the consequences of the phenomenon become more severe, the amount of climate coverage on broadcast networks has plummeted. According to a stunning analysis by Media Matters, the Sunday morning current affairs shows averaged about one hour each on climate change in 2009, compared to averaging 21 minutes apiece in 2010 and only 9 minutes per program in 2011. In 2011, Fox News Sunday covered climate change the most (just under an hour), "but much of the coverage promoted the 'Climategate' controversy and downplayed the threat of climate change," reports Media Matters.

At the other end of the spectrum, CBS had the least climate change coverage, devoting four minutes to the topic in three years. Altogether, in 2011, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox spent twice as much time discussing Donald Trump's "will he, won't he" run for president rather than climate change. In fact, NBC's Meet the Press devoted 23 minutes to Trump that year – but not a single minute to climate change.

While there is virtually no mention of climate change in the local news, reporters have turned the weather into a national pastime. Perhaps this is because storms, hurricanes and tornadoes ignite a primal reaction, whereas climate change requires an intellectual one. There is also a perception of trust that grows from constant visibility on television – although we poke fun at the weatherman, we still hide in our closets during tornado warnings. On the other hand, we regard PhD-level climate scientists with suspicion, even though their work must hold up to rigorous peer review. The weather versus climate conflict illustrates what behavioral economists have said for years:


"We base our decisions on emotion far more than reason."

Flawed climate risk perception may also explain why meteorologists have an advantage over climate scientists in making immediate weather more urgent than climate change. Although hard data do influence thinking, the psychology of risk perception is complicated. Often, our fears defy reason and statistics. For instance, blood-curdling events like shark attacks and plane crashes scare the living daylights out of us, when we have more reason to be afraid of climbing into our cars each morning: sharks claim about 12 lives per year, while car crash fatalities average around 93 per day. In the case of climate change, fear over problems that will affect us 50 years from now cannot compare with fear of challenges we face today. What people don't understand is that climate change is, in fact, already affecting our economy.

It's understandable that our perception of risk may lead us to focus on surviving an immediate disaster more than preventing a future one. But it defies logic that so many would fall prey to "infotainers" such as Glenn Beck, who uses sustainable development as fodder for jokes. From McKinney, Texas to Trenton, New Jersey, sustainable development projects are being held up due to aggressive pushback and fear-mongering over Agenda 21, a voluntary initiative that some suspect to be diabolical attempt on the part of the UN to force a one-world government.

Fortunately, most folks are not held back by reactionary ideology so much as basic lack of exposure to the problem. More than 1 billion people live in low-lying coastal areas, and most live in poverty. Already, at least 25 million climate refugees and counting are facing the consequences. For them, climate change is no longer an abstract concept to get their minds around; they are literally wading through it.

Seeing is believing. If weak perception of risk is our blind spot, we needn't let the media keep us in the dark. Instead, we can use media – pictures, videos and websites such as National Geographic – to confront the challenges, and so mobilize citizens and students toward solutions. Weather may fade, but pictures of post-drought west Texas, hurricane-ravaged New Orleans and submerging countries such as Tuvalu are a stark reminder that climate change carries not only an economic or environmental toll, but also a human one.

Sure, we can always evacuate, but we cannot get around paying a price for avoiding climate change. And the price – like the sea level – keeps rising.

Offline Muffin

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1799 on: October 24, 2012, 11:37:25 PM »
Scientists found guilty in Italy quake trial

Here is a decent article in Al Jazeera about this issue. Most of the western foreign media headlights are quite misleading, sensationalists.

Quote
Six Italian scientists and a government official have been found guilty of multiple manslaughter for underestimating the risks of a deadly earthquake in the town of L'Aquila in 2009 that left 309 people dead.

Judge Marco Billi on Monday sentenced all seven members of Italy's Major Risks Committee to six years in prison for failing to warn the population of the risks just days before L'Aquila and surrounding towns were hit by the earthquake.

Quote
Prosecutors have argued that the seven - all members of the Major Risks Committee - failed to adequately alert the town's population after studying a series of small tremors in the weeks before the 6.3-magnitude quake struck.

The experts provided "an incomplete, inept, unsuitable and criminally mistaken" analysis, downplaying risks and reassuring residents, leaving them unprepared for the quake, said prosecutors during the year-long trial.

Apparently the statements were forced on these people by higher politicians to prevent panic and damage to tourism.
The situation is fairly complex but simple in the same time. These scientists are just a scapegoat and distraction.

In the few weeks after the event all the Italian media was focused on the rampant disregard of construction standards and laws by construction companies - to save costs. It was statistically demonstrated that most of the buildings that collapsed were either old, or new structures not conforming the laws for earthquake resistant buildings.

Everything went quiet, then this trial happened. The politicians or the companies guilty of building inadequate houses are not being prosecuted.
No shock there, it's just a scary precedent for what will come later.

On a side note, if making a "misleadingly reassuring statement" is a punishable crime by law, a bunch of politicians should be on trial.
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