Author Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!  (Read 31115 times)

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2040 on: October 26, 2014, 08:42:02 PM »
Rumour has it that IS have got their hands on ageing Iraqi chemical weapons and they are already using them.

Meanwhile, Syrians/Kurds/IS can observe the US strategic bombers over Kobani. To see B-1B bomber that close is an experience in its own right:



What B-1B is capable of with "dumb bombs":


I would guess, though, that in Kobani they drop a few precision-guided bombs over a period of 1-1.5 hours during a mission.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2014, 08:47:39 PM by erik »

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2041 on: October 31, 2014, 11:54:04 AM »
The battle for Kobane is gearing up to be a decider in the fate of Islamic State. Not because losing that battle will have so much military significance, but because the leadership of IS appears to have elevated it to such a level of importance for them, that losing will be a huge psychological and propaganda defeat. To offset this, they are going to try to lift their action in other areas of Iraq and Syria - just to take the significance of Kobane off the table, but more importantly to divert US air attacks.

But the stakes are rising. On the IS side, they have marshaled greater forces toward the Kobane theater, as well as sent in one of their top commanders to take charge. Add to this the acquisition and use of surface-to-air weaponry, which could become a game changer for the US air force. It appears they are at a critical threshold, and Kobane has become this threshold point in their expansion strategies. Yet by setting such psychological store on taking Kobane, they have also exposed themselves to the corresponding consequences of losing that battle.

On the Kurdish side, the local fighters have been resupplied with weapons, although these will remain of a low capacity type. Higher capacity weaponry is expected from the Peshmerga Iraqi Kurds whose forward planners have just entered Kobane. Not sure how long it will be before the main Peshmerga force arrive, and that timing could prove crucial, because IS have launched substantial attacks only recently. It appears they know they have to act as fast as possible, but I don't think they are yet up to full force either.

The other support has come from the Free Syrian Army, who have also entered Kobane, and whose personnel will be engaging directly with the IS troops, as distinct from the Peshmergas. The FSA have been in Kobane all along, but only a small handful. Then there is the question of the quality of the FSA troops - not sure where that stands.

The Turks seem to have come half-way round in allowing the FSA and the Peshmergas through, but they will not tolerate the PKK forces taking part - you should know that the insurgency of the PKK in Turkey over the last few decades has cost around 40,000 lives. But I have also heard the intransigence of Turkey is primarily due to the current leader of that country - he has his own agenda and caprice. He belongs to the Black Turks - a religious and mainly rural self-designation in distinction to the secular Turks of the cities.

Just how much the surface-to-air missiles that IS now are willing to use, will affect the US coalition air strikes, is yet to be seen, but you can be sure the helicopters will remain on the ground. One of the most vulnerable times for aircraft is on takeoff and touchdown, so the encroachment of the Iraqi IS to Baghdad airport becomes a critical issue, as is the ability to use Turkey's airfields, which they can't yet.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2014, 12:02:44 PM by Michael »

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2042 on: October 31, 2014, 07:13:09 PM »
The Peshmergas with heavy weapons have now entered Kobane, and intelligence reports that foreign fighters are flooding into Syria and Iraq to join Islamic State.

erik

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US, Shiites and Iranians on the same side
« Reply #2043 on: November 11, 2014, 07:04:35 AM »
There you are...talking about Iranian invasion.

Iranian general is said to mastermind Iraq ground war

http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/iranian-general-is-said-to-mastermind-iraq-ground-war-1.312238



BAGHDAD — When Islamic State militants retreated from the embattled town of Jurf al-Sakher last week, the Iraqi military was quick to flaunt a rare victory. State television showed tanks and Humvees parading through the town and soldiers touring government buildings that the Sunni extremist group had occupied since August.

However, photos soon emerged on independent Iraqi news websites revealing a more discreet presence - the Iranian general Ghasem Soleimani, whose name has become synonymous with the handful of victories attributed to Iraqi ground forces. Local commanders said Lebanon's Hezbollah Shiite militia group was also involved.

The U.S. has awkwardly found itself on the same side as Iran and Hezbollah in the war against the Islamic State group, which rampaged across much of northern and western Iraq in June. While U.S. military advisers have been coordinating coalition airstrikes from within heavily fortified bases, Soleimani and his commanders are on the front lines and would assume a key role in the retaking of major cities.

That could prove a major impediment to addressing the grievances of Iraq's Sunni minority. Iran and Hezbollah are closely linked with Iraqi Shiite militias, which have also played a key role in driving IS out of the so-called Baghdad Belt of Sunni villages ringing the capital. The sectarian militias have long been implicated in brutality against Sunnis, and their advance could undermine efforts to knit the troubled country together.

Militia commanders told The Associated Press that dozens of advisers from Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were on the front lines in Jurf al-Sakher. They said the advisers provided weapons training to some 7,000 Iraqi troops and militia fighters and coordinated with military commanders ahead of the operation.

One commander, who agreed to be identified only by his nickname, Abu Zeinab, said Soleimani began planning the Jurf al-Sakher operation three months ago. The cleared town, 50 kilometers (30 miles) south of the capital, lies on a road often used by Shite pilgrims.

Iraqi military officials declined to discuss Soleimani's presence in Jurf al-Sakher, or in previous victories where he is known to have played a commanding role. Those successes include halting the IS advance in the town of Amirli in August and the city of Samarra in June.

But senior figures with the Revolutionary Guard have publicly acknowledged Soleimani's role in Iraq's war with IS.

As for Hezbollah, it has openly joined Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces against mainly Sunni rebels - a decision that has fueled sectarian tensions in Lebanon. But Hezbollah has declined to comment on reports of its involvement in Iraq.

In July, officials in Lebanon said a Hezbollah commander was killed while on a "jihadi mission" in Iraq. Ibrahim Mohammed al-Haj was buried in Lebanon and his funeral attended by top Hezbollah officials. It was the first known Hezbollah death in Iraq since the lightning IS advance in June.

A Lebanese official close to the group said Hezbollah is known to have "a limited number of advisers" in Iraq who are not directly involved in fighting, and that al-Haj was one of them. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

Iraqi officials have also said that a handful of advisers from Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, are offering front-line guidance to Iraqi Shiite militias fighting Sunni extremists north of Baghdad. But it is not known if any Hezbollah men are actually fighting.

Iraqi Shiite militias were implicated in the mass killing of Sunnis at the height of the country's sectarian carnage in 2006 and 2007 and have more recently been accused of brutalizing Sunni captives.

Sunnis are also deeply suspicious of Shiite powerhouse Iran, which has played an outsized role in Iraqi affairs since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated government.

"It is true that Iraq needs any kind of help in the current situation, but this help should be public and part of the international efforts," Sunni lawmaker Hamid al-Mutlaq told the AP. "This undeclared Iranian help harms national reconciliation and the sovereignty of Iraq."

Amnesty International said last month that militias have abducted and killed scores of Sunni civilians with the tacit support of the Iraqi government in retaliation for Islamic State attacks.

Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has pledged to reign in the militias and establish a national guard to mobilize Sunnis against the extremists. But it could take months to assemble such a force, and in the meantime Soleimani's militias are the best placed to aid Iraq's beleaguered military in regaining the initiative against the Islamic State group.

Soleimani's Quds Force, the special operations arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, has been involved for years in training and financing Iraq's Shiite militias. It has also long worked with Hezbollah in Lebanon and has been aiding Assad's forces.

In June, Revolutionary Guard advisers under Soleimani provided guidance for Shiite militiamen in shelling Sunni insurgent positions around Samarra, a Sunni-majority city north of Baghdad that is home to a revered Shiite shrine, local commanders said. Soleimani was also seen as playing a key role in ending the Islamic State siege of the Shiite Turkmen town of Amirli. And a top Revolutionary Guard general said in September that Soleimani had even helped Kurdish fighters defend their regional capital, Irbil.

Militia commanders, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to talk to the media, describe Soleimani as "fearless" - one pointing out that the Iranian general never wears a flak jacket, even on the front lines.

"Soleimani has taught us that death is the beginning of life, not the end of life," one militia commander said.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2044 on: November 11, 2014, 08:15:34 AM »
It does look like a Shia-Sunni war, and again we learn that multiple sides have been on the ground all over the place. We also learnt that UK SAS have been in Kobane for a long time. Now the US is about to ramp up its involvement. I suppose it is to be expected, that strange alliances will eventuate in such a situation, but the consequences still remain unpredictable.

And Russia hasn't given up its Ukrainian ambitions.

Offline Nichi

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2045 on: November 13, 2014, 03:52:11 PM »
At the moment, it's making me so nauseated I can barely read all the articles.

Why is Russia going to fly its bombers over the Gulf of Mexico routinely? Have they gone mad? I suppose it's a rhetorical question, but that is so going to bring trouble.

Yes, yes, they're flexing their muscles, trying to intimidate. The timing of it is bad for me, though I can't really imagine a good time. It's like, wait a minute, this is where I came in (to the world.)
« Last Edit: November 13, 2014, 04:08:52 PM by Nichi »
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erik

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Abandon hope...
« Reply #2046 on: November 13, 2014, 04:53:17 PM »
The timing of it is bad for me.

When would it be a good time for you for world to plunge into bloody chaos? :D

As if the world ever asks. As if it cares. About any of us. As if we could end our suffering by changing the world.

Abandon hope all ye who enter here.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2014, 05:31:16 PM by erik »

erik

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Obama wrote to Iran
« Reply #2047 on: November 13, 2014, 05:07:31 PM »
Obama Wrote Secret Letter to Iran’s Khamenei About Fighting Islamic State

http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-wrote-secret-letter-to-irans-khamenei-about-fighting-islamic-state-1415295291

Presidential Correspondence With Ayatollah Stresses Shared U.S.-Iranian Interests in Combating Insurgents, Urges Progress on Nuclear Talks

WASHINGTON—President Barack Obama secretly wrote to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the middle of last month and described a shared interest in fighting Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, according to people briefed on the correspondence.

The letter appeared aimed both at buttressing the campaign against Islamic State and nudging Iran’s religious leader closer to a nuclear deal.

Mr. Obama stressed to Mr. Khamenei that any cooperation on Islamic State was largely contingent on Iran reaching a comprehensive agreement with global powers on the future of Tehran’s nuclear program by a Nov. 24 diplomatic deadline, the same people say.

The October letter marked at least the fourth time Mr. Obama has written Iran’s most powerful political and religious leader since taking office in 2009 and pledging to engage with Tehran’s Islamist government.

The correspondence underscores that Mr. Obama views Iran as important—whether in a potentially constructive or negative role—to his emerging military and diplomatic campaign to push Islamic State from the territories it has gained over the past six months.

Mr. Obama’s letter also sought to assuage Iran’s concerns about the future of its close ally, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, according to another person briefed on the letter. It states that the U.S.’s military operations inside Syria aren’t targeted at Mr. Assad or his security forces.

Mr. Obama and senior administration officials in recent days have placed the chances for a deal with Iran at only 50-50. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is set to begin intensive direct negotiations on the nuclear issue with his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, on Sunday in the Persian Gulf country of Oman.

“There’s a sizable portion of the political elite that cut their teeth on anti-Americanism,” Mr. Obama said at a White House news conference on Wednesday about Iran’s leadership, without commenting on his personal overture. “Whether they can manage to say ‘Yes’…is an open question.”

For the first time this week, a senior administration official said negotiations could be extended beyond the Nov. 24 deadline, adding that the White House will know after Mr. Kerry’s trip to Oman whether a deal with Iran is possible by late November.

“We’ll know a lot more after that meeting as to whether or not we have a shot at an agreement by the deadline,” the senior official said. “If there’s an extension, there’re questions like: What are the terms?”

Mr. Obama’s push for a deal faces renewed resistance after Tuesday’s elections gave Republicans control of the Senate and added power to thwart an agreement and to impose new sanctions on Iran. Sens. Mark Kirk (R., Ill.) and Robert Menendez (D., N.J.) have introduced legislation to intensify sanctions.

“The best way to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is to quickly pass the bipartisan Menendez-Kirk legislation—not to give the Iranians more time to build a bomb,” Mr. Kirk said Wednesday.

House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) expressed concern when asked about the letter sent by Mr. Obama.

“I don’t trust the Iranians, I don’t think we need to bring them into this,” Mr. Boehner said. Referring to the continuing nuclear talks between Iran and world powers, Mr. Boehner said he “would hope that the negotiations that are under way are serious negotiations, but I have my doubts.”

In a sign of the sensitivity of the Iran diplomacy, the White House didn’t tell its Middle East allies—including Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—about Mr. Obama’s October letter to Mr. Khamenei, according to people briefed on the correspondence and representatives of allied countries.

Leaders from these countries have voiced growing concern in recent weeks that the U.S. is preparing to significantly soften its demands in the nuclear talks with Tehran. They said they worry the deal could allow Iran to gain the capacity to produce nuclear weapons in the future.

Arab leaders also fear Washington’s emerging rapprochement with Tehran could come at the expense of their security and economic interests across the Middle East. These leaders have accused the U.S. of keeping them in the dark about its diplomatic engagements with Tehran.

The Obama administration launched secret talks with Iran in the Omani capital of Muscat in mid-2012, but didn’t notify Washington’s Mideast allies of the covert diplomatic channel until late 2013.

Senior U.S. officials declined to discuss Mr. Obama’s letter to Mr. Khamenei after questions from The Wall Street Journal.

White House press secretary Josh Earnest on Thursday declined to comment on what he called “private correspondence” between the president and world leaders, but acknowledged U.S. officials in the past have discussed the Islamic State campaign with Iranian officials on the sidelines of international nuclear talks. He added the negotiations remain centered on Iran’s nuclear program and reiterated that the U.S. isn’t cooperating militarily with Iran on the Islamic State fight.

Administration officials didn’t deny the letter’s existence when questioned by foreign diplomats in recent days.

Mr. Khamenei has proved a fickle diplomatic interlocutor for Mr. Obama in the past six years.

Mr. Obama sent two letters to Iran’s 75-year-old supreme leader during the first half of 2009, calling for improvements in U.S.-Iran ties, which had been frozen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran.

Mr. Khamenei never directly responded to the overtures, according to U.S. officials. And Iran’s security forces cracked down hard that year on nationwide protests that challenged the re-election of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad .

U.S.-Iran relations have thawed considerably since the election of President Hasan Rouhani in June 2013. He and Mr. Obama shared a 15-minute phone call in September 2013, and Messrs. Kerry and Zarif have regularly held direct talks on the nuclear diplomacy and regional issues.

Still, Mr. Khamenei has often cast doubt on the prospects for better relations with Washington. He has criticized the U.S. military campaign against Islamic State, which is also known as ISIS or ISIL, claiming it is another attempt by Washington and the West to weaken the Islamic world.

“America, Zionism, and especially the veteran expert of spreading divisions—the wicked government of Britain—have sharply increased their efforts of creating divisions between the Sunnis and Shiites,” Mr. Khamenei said in a speech last month, according to a copy of it on his website. “They created al Qaeda and [Islamic State] in order to create divisions and to fight against the Islamic Republic, but today, they have turned on them.”

Current and former U.S. officials have said Mr. Obama has focused on communicating with Mr. Khamenei specifically because they believe the cleric will make all the final decisions on Iran’s nuclear program and the fight against Islamic State.

Mr. Rouhani is seen as navigating a difficult balance of gaining Mr. Khamenei’s approval for his foreign policy decisions while trying to satisfy Iranian voters who elected him in the hope of seeing Iran re-engage with the Western world.

The emergence of Islamic State has drastically changed both Washington’s and Tehran’s policies in the Middle East.

Mr. Obama was elected on the pledge of ending Washington’s war in Iraq. But over the past three months, he has resumed a U.S. air war in the Arab country, focused on weakening Islamic State’s hold of territory in western and northern Iraq.

Iran has had to mobilize its own military resources to fight against Islamic State, according to senior Iranian and U.S. officials.

Tehran’s elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has sent military advisers into Iraq to help the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, a close Iranian ally. The IRGC has also worked with Syrian President Assad’s government, and Shiite militias from across the Mideast, to conduct military operations inside Syria.

U.S. officials have stressed that they are not coordinating with Tehran on the fight against Islamic State.

But the State Department has confirmed that senior U.S. officials have discussed Iraq with Mr. Zarif on the sidelines of nuclear negotiations in Vienna. U.S. diplomats have also passed on messages to Tehran via Mr. Abadi’s government in Baghdad and through the offices of Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, among the most powerful religious leaders in the Shiite world.

Among the messages conveyed to Tehran, according to U.S. officials, is that U.S. military operations in Iraq and Syria aren’t aimed at weakening Tehran or its allies.

“We’ve passed on messages to the Iranians through the Iraqi government and Sistani saying our objective is against ISIL,” said a senior U.S. official briefed on these communications. “We’re not using this as a platform to reoccupy Iraq or to undermine Iran.”

Offline Nichi

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Re: Abandon hope...
« Reply #2048 on: November 13, 2014, 06:07:43 PM »
When would it be a good time for you for world to plunge into bloody chaos? :D

Well, I did say that I couldn't imagine a good time.   :P
« Last Edit: November 13, 2014, 06:09:51 PM by Nichi »
Not here, not there, but everywhere - always right before your eyes.
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Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2049 on: November 13, 2014, 06:26:24 PM »
AFAIK Putin is now in Brisbane Aust for the G20. Russian ships are in the Coral Sea just north of Australia. Russian tanks and military are in East Ukraine. I'd be a little glum about all this if I were to think too hard about it.

As for Obama and Iran, or the US in bed with strange companions in Syria and Iraq, I'd say nations always use alliances of convenience at times of war, though that doesn't stop them from changing their minds after. As for the the Americans voting for the Republicans, that is an even greater madness - haven't they had enough of war, unemployment and global financial crises?

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2050 on: November 13, 2014, 07:22:26 PM »
As for Obama and Iran, or the US in bed with strange companions in Syria and Iraq, I'd say nations always use alliances of convenience at times of war, though that doesn't stop them from changing their minds after.

That's one way to explain the lack of any kind of meaningful US strategy on al-Qaeda, IS and conflict in Syria. It has been lacking for years and years.  :D

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2051 on: November 13, 2014, 07:23:45 PM »
Absolutely.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2052 on: November 14, 2014, 10:49:49 PM »
I'm not convinced about this Russian stuff. Firstly, they are in an economic crisis point - to persevere further with their continuing militaristic grand standing across the world, only undermines their economic situation - they are becoming distrusted by global business. Business needs reliability and predictability - Russia is demonstrating exactly the opposite.

Secondly, now that Putin is being photographed in Australia constantly, I have to say, this guy is not a match for his posturing. Something essential is missing. He's a political playboy.

But that doesn't mean the outcome will be a fizzer. It only means I wouldn't want to be on his side for a successful outcome.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2053 on: November 15, 2014, 06:29:34 AM »
Well, Russians are concentrating again on Ukrainian borders. I'd say they try to intimidate Ukrainians to talk directly with separatists/Russian mercenaries, and they might undertake something reckless.

Anyhow, artillery duels take place every day and night and men are killed on both sides. What many miss, is that war rages all the time. Russians launch periodically tank attacks as well.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2054 on: November 15, 2014, 10:06:15 PM »
Yes, men are killed on both sides. I wonder if that will happen to that female Ukrainian pilot the Russians captured?

 

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