Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[erik]

I attended an interesting talk at the uni last Friday, by a PHP candidate with substantial knowledge of Saudi Arabia.

What I was not fully informed of, was the creation of SA state. This was a collaboration by two men, Ibn Saud and Abd al-Wahhab. Ibn Saud was a smart guy, who realised there was no physical existential threat to rally what was known as Najd into a state, but with the help of the obsessive purist Abd al-Wahhab, he succeeded by raising the spectre of a spiritual existential threat. Thus Wahhabism became foundational in the formation of modern Saudi Arabia.

But Wahhabism is retrospective and internal - it seeks to return to a pure past, and has no answer to the crisis of the modern world. Whenever the Saudi authority has been threatened, it always retreats to the Wahhabi line that Islam is in danger from liberal or Shiite influences. But don't for a minute believe the Saudi strategists believe this crap - they are ultimate pragmatists. The problem for them is their old power-strategy of threats to the purity of 'reality' (ie Islam) is not that useful for addressing problems outside Arabia nor the pressures of globalism.

In fact, they are ill-prepared to deal with the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, Iran or ISIS. They bought off their population with money to stall any internal Arab Spring aspirations, but that was only temporary. It now appears they are foundationally unprepared to confront the new crises that face the broader Sunni states.

Thus many commentators feel their recent attempt to rally those states into a threat that does not directly affect Saudi Arabia, is doomed to failure.

Wahhabis have traditionally controlled Saudi power structures - armed forces, police, etc. Their influence as a driving force is behind the Saudi offensive in Yemen. I would expect these desperate Wahhabis to drive Saudi Arabia into growing number of military adventures.

Saudis do not really have to persuade the Gulf states of Iranian threat, though. It is perceived very sharply by all these Khalifs, Emirs and Sultans. Another issue is that Arabs in these countries are reluctant/lazy to mobilise themselves to do something hard and meaningful about it. Hence the US 5th Fleet in Bahrein.

If ever Saudis would go directly against Iranians in Iraq or Yemen, we would have possibly a true Mother of all Wars on our hands.

[Michael]

OK, so what has happened with ISIS? There we were a little while back, thinking the Kurds had secured a critical psychological victory over ISIS, and that was true, but if anyone thought that would punch a hole in ISIS's momentum, it's obvious now that hypothesis is false.

There has been a good deal of dumbing down ISIS. Firstly, they are considered a terrorist group like Al Qaeda. Secondly, they have been characterised as a weakening force by some, like the US. Thirdly, they are regarded as of ultimately little consequence by the surrounding major states, who are more concerned about Iran. And even Iran has only taken limited action in fighting ISIS.

It is pretty obvious to any realistic observer that by now they have to be treated as a state, not an insurgency. All actions against them have been half-hearted, except by the Kurds, and I would be surprised if they can hold out once ISIS gains a substantial foothold. I know many thought they would implode, which is quite possible still, although there is faint sign that is happening any time soon.

The facts on the ground demonstrate that ISIS is fast gaining ground. There are two questions for me. Firstly, how long can the surrounding states play this game of competitive self-interest and intrigue? How long before both Sunni and Shia states realise their primary self-interest is to go to war against ISIS in a full scale and determined confrontation?

Secondly, how long will it be before all Western governments realise they have to commit troops, aircraft and weapons in fight-to-win determination?

It seems to me every party (except for the Kurds and ISIS) has been dabbling in this campaign with only half hearted intent. I expect after the last week's events, all nations are talking seriously behind closed doors. In all countries now, public opinion has to be massaged - expect to see a significant uptake in the 'threat' alarms across the media over the near future, because I expect governments now are seriously worried about what is happening not only in Iraq and the Levant, but among Muslims across the world.

[erik]

Things are going from bad to worse in Syria and Iraq.
Couple of maps to illustrate the situation:





It is difficult to outline all reasons for the success of Islamic State and I would stress these:

1) Iraqi leadership and armed forces are way too corrupt, demoralised and secatarian to put up a good fight against IS. In fact, the previous government stepped on Sunnis and pushed them away from government. Now IS has former Iraqi Sunni officers and other military specialists on their side (hence, suddenly skyrocketed professionalism in fighting).

2) In Syria, al-Assad is running low on reserves and faces two increasingly coherent fighting forces: one consolidating around old al-Qaeda (Jabhat al-Nusra) and the other centred around IS. While these two do not cooperate, they use the moments when al-Assad and Hezbollah hit one of them and the other can exploit the weakness of government forces in another area.

3) Why exactly is IS ideology so attractive (IS is building 7th-9th century Islamic Caliphate) I couldn't tell. IS has US $2 billion in banks and US $500 million in cash. There are some hints that IS has produced and used its own chemical weapons.

4) Coalition air campaign is too limited to have a serious effect. 14-15 strikes a day cannot seriously degrade a fighting force of 50-60,000 or even more. It would take 100-300 strikes a day as a minimum, but the more, the more devastating effect.

It looks as if we are heading for a huge conflict in the Middle East.

[Michael]

Good maps Juhani.
yes, the air campaign is paltry. The whole effort is paltry.

But I sense most of the big states are still preoccupied with Ukraine.

[erik]

Our world is at war

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/18/world/unhcr-refugees-most-in-history/


In 2014, 13.9 million people became newly displaced -- a record number for a single year. Just 126,800 refugees were able to return to their homes -- the fewest in 31 years.

There are more refugees in the world today than ever previously recorded -- and more than half are children, the United Nations refugee agency said Thursday.
Nearly 60 million people were counted as forcibly displaced in 2014, according to the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
If those people were the population of one country, it would be the 24th largest in the world.
One person out of every 122 on the planet is said to be either a refugee, internally displaced or seeking asylum. Last year on average, each day saw another 42,500 people driven from their homes.

'World at war'

The conflict in Syria has been the biggest single driver of displacement, according to the refugee agency's Global Trends report -- but far from the only one.
"One clearly gets the impression that the world is at war -- and indeed many areas of the world are today in a completely chaotic situation," said U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres at a news conference earlier.
"The result is this staggering escalation of displacement, this staggering escalation of human suffering, because each displaced person is a tragic story."

Millions of Syrians displaced

Turkey became the world's top refugee-hosting nation in 2014, with 1.59 million Syrians within its borders. Within the EU, Germany and Sweden received the most asylum applications.
Most refugees come from the Middle East, with 7.6 million Syrians taking to the road within their own country, and 3.88 million having become refugees.
Many more come from sub-Saharan Africa, fleeing conflicts in the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Somalia, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo and elsewhere.
In Asia, the report highlights growing numbers of people fleeing Myanmar.
And in the Americas, there was a rise in the number of people seeking to escape gang violence in Central America.
Asylum claims in the United States were up 44% over the year.

Agencies sound alarm

The Institute for Economics and Peace, a global think tank, also sounded the alarm about the growing refugee crisis.
On Wednesday it said in its Global Peace Index that almost 1% of the world's population are now refugees or internally displaced people -- the highest level since 1945.
It said violence cost the global economy $14.3 trillion last year. In a briefing paper, Amnesty International also called the current refugee crisis the worst since the Second World War.
This Saturday, June 20, is the UNHCR's World Refugee Day.

[Michael]

Yes, and what is to come of this, aside from suffering? The world has become more right-wing, self-interested and narrow minded. Which is why we have so many refugees. Unfortunately, I can't say I'll not live long enough to see this play out - I expect the next ten years to be very difficult for a sensitive being.

[erik]

Yes, and what is to come of this, aside from suffering? The world has become more right-wing, self-interested and narrow minded. Which is why we have so many refugees. Unfortunately, I can't say I'll not live long enough to see this play out - I expect the next ten years to be very difficult for a sensitive being.

Some experts are talking about "tsunami of refugees" rolling over our world. Suffering, destruction and possible use of weapons of mass destruction. For some reason, we have opted to come to this world right now - on the eve of destruction.

[Michael]

Realpolitik is coming to the Middle East. There has been a massing of Saudi, Qatari and Turkish troops on Syria's borders, as well as Wahhabist/Salafists jihadists, predominantly An-Nusra/Al Qaeda, rallied within by Saudi intelligence. The US is saying nothing, and it appears the plan is to allow the region of Syria and Iraq to be carved up along Sunni-Shia lines. Allah knows what the consequences of this will be, and how it will affect the rest of the destabilised states in the region.

[erik]

Realpolitik is coming to the Middle East. There has been a massing of Saudi, Qatari and Turkish troops on Syria's borders, as well as Wahhabist/Salafists jihadists, predominantly An-Nusra/Al Qaeda, rallied within by Saudi intelligence. The US is saying nothing, and it appears the plan is to allow the region of Syria and Iraq to be carved up along Sunni-Shia lines. Allah knows what the consequences of this will be, and how it will affect the rest of the destabilised states in the region.

Syria regime preparing for partition of the country (25 May 2015)

http://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-regime-preparing-for-partition-of-the-country/

Beaten by Islamic State in the east and battered by other rebels, Assad could withdraw to Alawite enclave

BEIRUT, Lebanon (AFP) — Weakened by years of war, Syria’s government appears ready for the country’s de facto partition, defending strategically important areas and leaving much of the country to rebels and jihadists, experts and diplomats say.
The strategy was in evidence last week with the army’s retreat from the ancient central city of Palmyra after an advance by the Islamic State group.
“It is quite understandable that the Syrian army withdraws to protect large cities where much of the population is located,” said Waddah Abded Rabbo, director of Syria’s al-Watan newspaper, which is close to the regime.
“The world must think about whether the establishment of two tefforist states is in its interests or not,” he said, in reference to IS’s self-proclaimed ‘caliphate’ in Syria and Iraq, and al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front’s plans for its own ’emirate’ in northern Syria.
Syria’s government labels all those fighting to oust President Bashar al-Assad “tefforists,” and has pointed to the emergence of IS and al-Nusra as evidence that opponents of the regime are extremists.
Since the uprising against Assad began in March 2011 with peaceful protests, the government has lost more than three-quarters of the country’s territory, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor.
But the territory the regime controls accounts for about 50 to 60 percent of the population, according to French geographer and Syria expert Fabrice Balanche.
He said 10-15 percent of Syria’s population is now in areas controlled by IS, 20-25 percent in territory controlled by al-Nusra or rebel groups and another five to 10 percent in areas controlled by Kurdish forces.
“The government in Damascus still has an army and the support of a part of the population,” Balanche said.
“We’re heading towards an informal partition with front lines that could shift further.”

‘Division is inevitable’

People close to the regime talk about a government retreat to “useful Syria.”
“The division of Syria is inevitable. The regime wants to control the coast, the two central cities of Hama and Homs and the capital Damascus,” one Syrian political figure close to the regime said.
“The red lines for the authorities are the Damascus-Beirut highway and the Damascus-Homs highway, as well as the coast, with cities like Latakia and Tartus,” he added, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The coastal Latakia and Tartus provinces are strongholds of the regime, and home to much of the country’s Alawite community, the offshoot of Shiite Islam to which Assad adheres.
In the north, east and south of the country, large swathes of territory are now held by jihadists or rebel groups, and the regime’s last major offensive — in Aleppo province in February — was a failure.
For now the regime’s sole offensive movement is in Qalamoun along the Lebanese border, but there its ally, Lebanon’s Shiite Hezbollah movement, is taking the lead in the fighting.
“The Syrian army today has become a Praetorian guard that is charged with protecting the regime,” said a diplomat who goes to Damascus regularly.
He said the situation had left Syrian officials “worried, of course,” but that they remained convinced that key regime allies Russia and Iran would not let the government collapse.
Some observers believe the defensive posture was the suggestion of Iran, which believes it is better to have less territory but be able to keep it secure.
“Iran urged Syrian authorities to face facts and change strategy by protecting only strategic zones,” opposition figure Haytham Manna said.

Army running out of troops

The shift may also be the result of the dwindling forces available to the regime, which has seen its once 300,000-strong army “whittled away” by combat and attrition, according to Aram Nerguizian, a senior fellow at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“On the surface, the regime appears to have accepted that it must secure, hold and defend its core area of control… with its current mix of forces,” he said.
Those are approximately 175,000 men from the army, pro-regime Syrian militias and foreign fighters including from Hezbollah and elsewhere.
The Observatory says 68,000 regime forces are among the 220,000 people killed since the conflict began.
But the new strategy does not indicate regime collapse, and could even work in its favor, Nerguizian said.
“Supply lines would have far less overstretch to contend with, and the regime’s taxed command-and-control structure would have more margin of maneuver.”
Thomas Pierret, a Syria expert at the University of Edinburgh, said that to survive, “the regime will have to lower its expectations and concentrate on the Damascus-Homs-coast axes.
“Militarily, the regime probably still has the means to hold the southeastern half of the country long-term, but further losses could weaken it from within.”

[erik]

Researchers characterise the study below as conservative. One or two wars here and there seem like a joke in compasion with this. Whether there is a hope is not clear at all. Rarely have I seen timely and sufficient responses to pressing issues/emergencies from societies and governments.

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/june/mass-extinction-ehrlich-061915.html

There is no longer any doubt: We are entering a mass extinction that threatens humanity's existence.

That is the bad news at the center of a new study by a group of scientists including Paul Ehrlich, the Bing Professor of Population Studies in biology and a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. Ehrlich and his co-authors call for fast action to conserve threatened species, populations and habitat, but warn that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

"[The study] shows without any significant doubt that we are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event," Ehrlich said.

Although most well known for his positions on human population, Ehrlich has done extensive work on extinctions going back to his 1981 book, Extinction: The Causes and Consequences of the Disappearance of Species. He has long tied his work on coevolution, on racial, gender and economic justice, and on nuclear winter with the issue of wildlife populations and species loss.

There is general agreement among scientists that extinction rates have reached levels unparalleled since the dinosaurs died out 66 million years ago. However, some have challenged the theory, believing earlier estimates rested on assumptions that overestimated the crisis.

The new study, published in the journal Science Advances, shows that even with extremely conservative estimates, species are disappearing up to about 100 times faster than the normal rate between mass extinctions, known as the background rate.

"If it is allowed to continue, life would take many millions of years to recover, and our species itself would likely disappear early on," said lead author Gerardo Ceballos of the Universidad Autónoma de México.

Conservative approach

Using fossil records and extinction counts from a range of records, the researchers compared a highly conservative estimate of current extinctions with a background rate estimate twice as high as those widely used in previous analyses. This way, they brought the two estimates – current extinction rate and average background or going-on-all-the-time extinction rate – as close to each other as possible.

Focusing on vertebrates, the group for which the most reliable modern and fossil data exist, the researchers asked whether even the lowest estimates of the difference between background and contemporary extinction rates still justify the conclusion that people are precipitating "a global spasm of biodiversity loss." The answer: a definitive yes.



"We emphasize that our calculations very likely underestimate the severity of the extinction crisis, because our aim was to place a realistic lower bound on humanity's impact on biodiversity," the researchers write.

To history's steady drumbeat, a human population growing in numbers, per capita consumption and economic inequity has altered or destroyed natural habitats. The long list of impacts includes:

- Land clearing for farming, logging and settlement
- Introduction of invasive species
- Carbon emissions that drive climate change and ocean acidification
- Toxins that alter and poison ecosystems[/li][/list]

Now, the specter of extinction hangs over about 41 percent of all amphibian species and 26 percent of all mammals, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, which maintains an authoritative list of threatened and extinct species.

"There are examples of species all over the world that are essentially the walking dead," Ehrlich said.

As species disappear, so do crucial ecosystem services such as honeybees' crop pollination and wetlands' water purification. At the current rate of species loss, people will lose many biodiversity benefits within three generations, the study's authors write. "We are sawing off the limb that we are sitting on," Ehrlich said.

Hope for the future

Despite the gloomy outlook, there is a meaningful way forward, according to Ehrlich and his colleagues. "Avoiding a true sixth mass extinction will require rapid, greatly intensified efforts to conserve already threatened species, and to alleviate pressures on their populations – notably habitat loss, over-exploitation for economic gain and climate change," the study's authors write.

In the meantime, the researchers hope their work will inform conservation efforts, the maintenance of ecosystem services and public policy.

Co-authors on the paper include Anthony D. Barnosky of the University of California at Berkeley, Andrés García of Universidad Autónoma de México, Robert M. Pringle of Princeton University and Todd M. Palmer of the University of Florida.

[Michael]

We have a strange picture unfolding across the world of late. I have been thinking to write a bit about it, yet kept letting the moment slip, thinking the ship might right itself - not the case apparently.

Sure, Greece remains in the EU. That is a surprise, and yet the surprises continue there with new elections called. But somehow I sense the cascading moment has passed, where Greece would unfold the whole house of cards in Europe. It could still, but the rest of the world is looking to the EU for some stability just now, as things are unravelling elsewhere.

The two big items are Saudi Arabia and China. Saudi is going broke at US$12 billion a month. It tried to cripple the competition in the oil industry by forcing prices to fall, and was successful with Canada and numerous smaller producing states, but alas, they couldn't defeat the USA, who used technology to crawl out of the nose-dive. Now that Saudi Arabia has found new identity as the saviour of Sunnis in the Middle East, it is spending big internally and externally. This is unsustainable at current oil prices.

Meanwhile, the US has succeeded in cutting oil production costs through enhanced technology, and is now happily watching Saudi teeter on the edge, while it prepares itself of a vast wave of industrial growth powered by cheap oil and cheap labour.

Across the Pacific, China is crumbling into a heap of shit. Everyone is saying all will be well, but the bad news just keeps rolling on. We all wait until Monday to see if there will be a global sell-off of shares off the back of continuing bad results coming out of the Middle Kingdom. No one knows what the consequences will be if China's descent isn't stemmed. But one thing is certain, everyone is panic-stricken about the consequences of both China's financial troubles, and the unfolding demand of increased opening up of the financial structures made obvious by the troubles. How will the political system cope? I gather, privately, many are seriously concerned.

But the US has finally decided to lift its game in Syria - can that country take more killing? I'm staggered there is anyone left to kill in there. And just to please the comfortable world, we have the ongoing entertainment of bombings in Thailand and shooting attempts on French trains. No where is safe any more!

Sneaky Turkey, which hated the Kurdish intrusion into Turkish politics last election, played the blunt clever hand of bombing the Kurds while joining the US in bombing ISIL. The Kurds took the bait, and started killing Turkish soldiers which is exactly what the PM of Turkey wanted. Now when the next election is called soon, the Kurds will be on the nose in Turkey, and that democratic dictator running Turkey will win.

[Michael]

We all wait until Monday to see if there will be a global sell-off of shares off the back of continuing bad results coming out of the Middle Kingdom.

I hate to be prescient at such a vast level. So the shit really hit the fan today, and the world waits for tomorrow to see if Shiva will enforce the follow-on (for Indian cricketers).

I suspect there will be reverse-correction, as this is the common pattern probably instigated by national banks. Then we could have the dead-cat-bounce effect. China is in free-fall. I can't help saying I knew it would happen when the Shanghai index suffered so severely in past weeks.

The only thing I can offer is that those in the US will probably survive this one, due to their oil sufficiency. But it will affect even Americans, though more Asians and Australians. Luckily the fund I manage has well over 30% cash holdings - we might even pick up a few bargains once the bottom is reached.

[Jahn]

I hate to be prescient at such a vast level. So the shit really hit the fan today, and the world waits for tomorrow to see if Shiva will enforce the follow-on (for Indian cricketers).

I suspect there will be reverse-correction, as this is the common pattern probably instigated by national banks. Then we could have the dead-cat-bounce effect. China is in free-fall. I can't help saying I knew it would happen when the Shanghai index suffered so severely in past weeks.

The only thing I can offer is that those in the US will probably survive this one, due to their oil sufficiency. But it will affect even Americans, though more Asians and Australians. Luckily the fund I manage has well over 30% cash holdings - we might even pick up a few bargains once the bottom is reached.

China have shadow banks that lend out money - and that banking isn't sound so they (their customers) have inflated the stock market in China. Then foreign Investors got tired of the manipulation of the ShangHai stock market and it fell.

The Stock Market in Stockholm fell heavily too, this black Monday, but since we got other companies here we reagained half of the loss today.   

[erik]

How bad is it, really?

The wars in the Middle East - be it against al-Assad or Islamic State or in Yemen - show no signs of relenting. Moreover, Russia now delivers weapons openly to al-Assad. The latest Russian warships carried the 'latest and greatest' Russian stuff openly on their decks, while passing through Dardanelles.
Hence, al-Assad will go until the bitter end, and what happens then, nobody knows.
As far as I can tell, the only feasible state structure is some sort of theocracy as the most powerful rebel factions accept only such outcome.

IS will stand until it is thoroughly demolished. So far there is nobody willing to go all the way in doing that. So the embodiment of utter darkness will persist.

Dramatic fall of oil prices and China going under look like serious enough events, but there is one more on the background. Russia is taking an immense blow though the fall of oil prices and the developments in the US. It is leaking money and its economy looks worse and worse. Morover, let's not forget that it gains 70% of its revenue from selling gas and oil. It is a petrostate with world's second largfest nuclear arsenal for all means and purposes. Its predecessor, USSR, literally collapsed when oil pricess fell dramatically in 1980s.

There you are.

Now, Russia keeps waging an undeclared war in Ukraine and it has no viable exit strategy. Withdrawal is unacceptable. Victory is beyond its reach. Its bank accounts keep emptying. And it likes to rattle its nukes. Its nuclear forces went on high alert a few days ago.
It seems to be bent on pushing till bitter end as well.

I'm not sure that our overall standing now is any better than during the toughest days of Cold War. It is rather the opposite.

The Doomsday Clock is three minutes till midnight - as during the iciest times of Cold War: http://thebulletin.org/timeline

[Michael]

Will Estonia retaliate for the severe sentence of it's security man captured by the Russians?