Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[erik]

I found my answer - Latakia. Reminds me of a wonderful Mac Baren's pipe tobacco called Latakia.

So, are we into escalation, beyond management? Possibly, but one thing stands out from all else: Obama has no keenness for the fight. Is this a sign of a week American leader, or a sign that the US no longer needs the Middle East for it;s strategic interests... ie oil.

I've just taken a look at the forces fighting in Syria:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_armed_groups_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War
OMG!

There is a slight chance that Russia could back off: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-suspends-syria-flights-after-crisis-with-russia.aspx?PageID=238&NID=91733&NewsCatID=352

Sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, stressed that the suspension of the Turkish jetfighters’ participation in the U.S.-led military operations against ISIL was in fact a mutual decision taken with Russia, which also halted its aerial campaigns near the Turkish border. Both parties will continue to be as careful as possible in a bid to avoid a repetition of such incidents until they re-establish dialogue channels to reduce the tension.

I may, just may be that Turkish message sank in and Russians are willing to back off if Turkey makes even a symbolic gesture in return.
What is quoted above looks quite a bit like the outcome of Caribbean crisis: Russians removed their missiles from Cuba in return for the US missiles leaving Turkey. The catch was that the US was going to remove them from Turkey anyway.

In Syria's case, Turks have had a moderate interest to bomb ISIS, but vital interest to set up a buffer zone.
We might just get lucky this time. Fingers crossed!

[erik]

Well, some seem to be hellbent on awakening major spirits of war.
Absolutely unapologetic Turks kept bashing Russia, stated that they would consider it an act of war if Russians shot down Turkish plane even above Syria, and warned that Russians should not play with fire.
Russians generated 17 sorties against Turkmen areas and deployed long-range air defence missile systems.

Meanwhile, Japanese will resume whaling in Antarctic.

[Michael]

I get the feeling Russia has over-stretched itself at a time when the home economy is collapsing. Turkey has humiliated Russia, when Russia is at least trying to do something. Of course, what it is trying to do is stop the supply lines to the Sunni jihadists through Turkey. This is what the US and EU should be doing, but instead they have expressed support for Turkey.

I suspect Russia is dying for France to galvanise the West into increased action in Syria, which could save Russia's bacon, or at least it's pride.

[Michael]

Another terrorist attack in the US, Colorado Springs. Those jihadist Christians are at it again. I'm surprised they even let Christian into the country.

[Firestarter]

Another tefforist attack in the US, Colorado Springs. Those jihadist Christians are at it again. I'm surprised they even let Christian into the country.

Yes they dont like Planned Parenthood. Apparently they think it is ok to tefforize Planned Parenthood.

[erik]

I get the feeling Russia has over-stretched itself at a time when the home economy is collapsing. Turkey has humiliated Russia, when Russia is at least trying to do something. Of course, what it is trying to do is stop the supply lines to the Sunni jihadists through Turkey. This is what the US and EU should be doing, but instead they have expressed support for Turkey.

I suspect Russia is dying for France to galvanise the West into increased action in Syria, which could save Russia's bacon, or at least it's pride.

Yes, two simultaneous operations - Ukraine and Syria - are a very heavy burden on Russia, but so was taking on Britain, US and Soviet Union for Hitler. At the end of the day, it is the man at the top who matters. I have been looking at persona of Putin closely for a while, and I must admit he does not leave an impression of a sound man. I would reckon his decision-making is deeply influenced by emotions and complexes. The rumour has it that he invaded Eastern Ukraine because of a very popular song made by Ukrainians after Russia annexed Crimea - "Putin is a D*ckhead"

Here it is (now they call it Ukrainian folk song  ):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjtTrup5qNU

So, Putin has managed to utterly infuriate 40 million Ukrainians and is getting close to doing the same to nearly 80 million Turks.

Apparently, Russians deny any kind of agreement with Turks: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/28/syria-army-says-turkey-increases-arms-shipments-to-rebels.html

We're still in the woods.

[Jahn]

After the attacks in Paris, Britain, Germany and France join the efforts to bring down the IzIz/Joe Doesh forces in Syria and North of Iraq.

Until this day, it has been a rule to not attack the oil refinery plants, because that is a great loss for the infra stucture. But now that "restriction" seems to be outruled.

The US forces attacks the refineries:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-13/oil-refinery-attacks-by-u-s-seek-to-foil-islamic-state-repairs

And so do the Russians:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N4tmwYHbCU

And all together, the strategy now seem to be to simply bomb IxIz down to a pile of earth.

http://www.msn.com/sv-se/video/nyheter/russia-pounds-syria-with-air-submarine-strikes/vi-AAgcYad?ocid=spartandhp

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russia-launches-cruise-missiles-at-syria-from-submarine-1746931031

Can anyone tell how the Russians can hold that camera still above the target? Is that done by a satellite?

[erik]

And all together, the strategy now seem to be to simply bomb ISIS down to a pile of earth.

Can anyone tell how the Russians can hold that camera still above the target? Is that done by a satellite?

1. Incorrect. The ground force against IzIz ought to be Kurds and less radical rebel factions. French (nutcases as they are) would also like to use al-Assad's forces.

Western powers bomb, but AzAz is expected to be destroyed on the ground by Kurds and rebels in Syria and by Kurds and Iraqi forces in Iraq. However, Russians fight mostly against less radical rebels and spend at best 30% of their efforts against ZaZa. Hence, Russians actually work against other powers fighting IiIi.

Turks spend a lot fo efforts against Kurds in Syria, while supporting Kurds in Iraq.

US supports Kurds everywhere.

Saudis and Qataris support conservative Islamist forces in Syria.

The gigantic flaw of the present strategy is that there is no viable Sunni alternative to ISIS fighting against IQIQ. Kurds cannot rule Sunni areas and neither can Shiites. Only Sunnis can.

2. Russians use drones extensively. They hang over targets and film the hits and (even more) misses. Russians miss amazingly many targets.

[Michael]

Yes, they all have their own agenda, and no alternative government exists.

But I am fascinated with what the US will do once IS conducts an organised attack on some iconic target in America. Will that turn public opinion against Obama's better judgement? Already the Repubs are frothing at the mouth, and next year is election - perfect timing for IS. Obama obviously has wise advisors that tell him to keep America's dirty little fingers out of the honey pot, but public outrage could change the government, or threaten to, if no decisive reaction is launched from such an attack.

[Jahn]

1. Incorrect. The ground force against Iziz ought to be Kurds and less radical rebel factions. French (nutcases as they are) would also like to use al-Assad's forces.

Western powers bomb, but IxI: is expected to be destroyed on the ground by Kurds and rebels in Syria and by Kurds and Iraqi forces in Iraq. However, Russians fight mostly against less radical rebels and spend at best 30% of their efforts against IxI:. Hence, Russians actually work against other powers fighting Iziz.

Turks spend a lot fo efforts against Kurds in Syria, while supporting Kurds in Iraq.

US supports Kurds everywhere.

Saudis and Qataris support conservative Islamist forces in Syria.

The gigantic flaw of the present strategy is that there is no viable Sunni alternative to Iziz fighting against I:i:. Kurds cannot rule Sunni areas and neither can Shiites. Only Sunnis can.

2. Russians use drones extensively. They hang over targets and film the hits and (even more) misses. Russians miss amazingly many targets.

Thanks for the answer of 2. (And I know that you do not like the Russians). (well, the Russians do not qualify on top ten nice nations here either :-)  ).

I know, I know, that there will not be any full victory Before any ground forces moves forward the IxIx.

Anyway, the number of bombs, rockets and missiles will soon enough turn the areas controlled by I:I: to a gravel heap.

What is new; the new strategy is that it seems to be okey to attack and destroy oil plants and refineries, together with oil transportations. With the aim to bring down the economic support to I:I:.

War and teffor is very expensive business. I could give you 100 examples from WWII and the German War machine back then.
We can get upset of the Germans way to steel and rob every new conquered areas, but with the simple aim to keep the war machine going ,they needed more, and more, of all energy/money, all the time, until the end.

[Jahn]

What we know is that, as quite a paradox, Icis has sold oil to their enemies.

Now Russia, and new tsar Putin, even claim that the Turkish president Erdogan have bought oil from Isic.
The answer to that (from Erdogan) is that he will resign if that accusation is true.
 

[Michael]

Even Assad bought IS oil.

[Jahn]

Even Assad bought IS oil.

Is that verified? Somewhere ...

[Michael]

I heard it on the radio in a discussion about the diverse self-interests by some authorities on the Syrian conflict. I haven't looked up any verified sources, but I'd have to say, firstly, it seems most likely - business is business - and secondly, verification of anything to do with Syria is a fraught issue.

[Jahn]

These guys are, to put it nice, awful and disgusting.
Beheading omg, well, as one author did put it: Muslims in these most extreme sects do not want to throw society back to the medevial times. In fact they want us to go back to the Iron age [which was ended about 700 A.D.]

http://www.thelocal.se/20151214/swedish-pair-get-life-in-jail-for-syria-terror-crimes

I can tell that the judge and the jury had to join a debreifing team session, in order to cope with the disgusting scenes from the beheading.

That this ever became a case for a Swedish courtin the first Place, was because one of the prosecuted Arabs was under an investigation for other crimes. then, in his home the Police found a USB with the video documentation of the beheading and more, from their time spent with IxIx in Syria.

They will surely appeal against the sentence.

Of some interest, a third person that was involved is wanted, with a global attention made to all passport controls in the World.