Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[Jahn]

"With oil selling for more than $130 a barrel in the commodity markets and no end in sight to high gasoline prices, Mr. Bush, a former oilman from Texas who came into office vowing to address an impending energy shortage, does not want to end his presidency in the midst of an energy crisis."

I read somewhere that the US with its 300 mill citizens use 40 percent of all oil produced.

[nichi]

Michael Gambon played in an HBO serial on Lyndon Baines Johnson. He was Johnson, and his performance was very impressive. Hard to picture him as this singing detective, hehe --- but then again, he's Dumbledore in the Harry Potter films!

[erik]

Estonian tomatoes:

[erik]

Time to invest in oil shares! (there is always time for gallows humour!)

U.S. Says Israeli Exercise Seemed Directed at Iran

http://www.nytimes.com

By MICHAEL R. GORDON and ERIC SCHMITT
Published: June 20, 2008
New York Times

WASHINGTON — Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Several American officials said the Israeli exercise appeared to be an effort to develop the military’s capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran’s nuclear program.

More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the maneuvers, which were carried out over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece during the first week of June, American officials said.

The exercise also included Israeli helicopters that could be used to rescue downed pilots. The helicopters and refueling tankers flew more than 900 miles, which is about the same distance between Israel and Iran’s uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, American officials said.

Israeli officials declined to discuss the details of the exercise. A spokesman for the Israeli military would say only that the country’s air force “regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel.”

But the scope of the Israeli exercise virtually guaranteed that it would be noticed by American and other foreign intelligence agencies. A senior Pentagon official who has been briefed on the exercise, and who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the political delicacy of the matter, said the exercise appeared to serve multiple purposes.

One Israeli goal, the Pentagon official said, was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and all other details of a possible strike against Iran’s nuclear installations and its long-range conventional missiles.

A second, the official said, was to send a clear message to the United States and other countries that Israel was prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium continued to falter.

“They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know,” the Pentagon official said. “There’s a lot of signaling going on at different levels.”

Several American officials said they did not believe that the Israeli government had concluded that it must attack Iran and did not think that such a strike was imminent.

Shaul Mofaz, a former Israeli defense minister who is now a deputy prime minister, warned in a recent interview with the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot that Israel might have no choice but to attack. “If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack,” Mr. Mofaz said in the interview published on June 6, the day after the unpublicized exercise ended. “Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable.”

But Mr. Mofaz was criticized by other Israeli politicians as seeking to enhance his own standing as questions mount about whether the embattled Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, can hang on to power.

Israeli officials have told their American counterparts that Mr. Mofaz’s statement does not represent official policy. But American officials were also told that Israel had prepared plans for striking nuclear targets in Iran and could carry them out if needed.

Iran has shown signs that it is taking the Israeli warnings seriously, by beefing up its air defenses in recent weeks, including increasing air patrols. In one instance, Iran scrambled F-4 jets to double-check an Iraqi civilian flight from Baghdad to Tehran.

“They are clearly nervous about this and have their air defense on guard,” a Bush administration official said of the Iranians.

Any Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities would confront a number of challenges. Many American experts say they believe that such an attack could delay but not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. Much of the program’s infrastructure is buried under earth and concrete and installed in long tunnels or hallways, making precise targeting difficult. There is also concern that not all of the facilities have been detected. To inflict maximum damage, multiple attacks might be necessary, which many analysts say is beyond Israel’s ability at this time.

But waiting also entails risks for the Israelis. Israeli officials have repeatedly expressed fears that Iran will soon master the technology it needs to produce substantial quantities of highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.

Iran is also taking steps to better defend its nuclear facilities. Two sets of advance Russian-made radar systems were recently delivered to Iran. The radar will enhance Iran’s ability to detect planes flying at low altitude.

Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, said in February that Iran was close to acquiring Russian-produced SA-20 surface-to-air missiles. American military officials said that the deployment of such systems would hamper Israel’s attack planning, putting pressure on Israel to act before the missiles are fielded.

For both the United States and Israel, Iran’s nuclear program has been a persistent worry. A National Intelligence Estimate that was issued in December by American intelligence agencies asserted that Iran had suspended work on weapons design in late 2003. The report stated that it was unclear if that work had resumed. It also noted that Iran’s work on uranium enrichment and on missiles, two steps that Iran would need to take to field a nuclear weapon, had continued.

In late May, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran’s suspected work on nuclear matters was a “matter of serious concern” and that the Iranians owed the agency “substantial explanations.”

Over the past three decades, Israel has carried out two unilateral attacks against suspected nuclear sites in the Middle East. In 1981, Israeli jets conducted a raid against Iraq’s nuclear plant at Osirak after concluding that it was part of Saddam Hussein’s program to develop nuclear weapons. In September, Israeli aircraft bombed a structure in Syria that American officials said housed a nuclear reactor built with the aid of North Korea.

The United States protested the Israeli strike against Iraq in 1981, but its comments in recent months have amounted to an implicit endorsement of the Israeli strike in Syria.

Pentagon officials said that Israel’s air forces usually conducted a major early summer training exercise, often flying over the Mediterranean or training ranges in Turkey where they practice bombing runs and aerial refueling. But the exercise this month involved a larger number of aircraft than had been previously observed, and included a lengthy combat rescue mission.

Much of the planning appears to reflect a commitment by Israel’s military leaders to ensure that its armed forces are adequately equipped and trained, an imperative driven home by the difficulties the Israeli military encountered in its Lebanon operation against Hezbollah.

“They rehearse it, rehearse it and rehearse it, so if they actually have to do it, they’re ready,” the Pentagon official said. “They’re not taking any options off the table.”

[erik]

Bolton: Israel to strike Iran after US elections

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1214132667211&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

By JPOST.COM STAFF

Israel is likely to attack Iran in the time between the November presidential election in the US and the inauguration of the new president, former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton told the Daily Telegraph in an interview published Tuesday.

However, Bolton said he did not believe the US would take part in such a strike. "It's clear that the administration has essentially given up that possibility," he said. "I don't think it's serious any more. If you had asked me a year ago I would have said I thought it was a real possibility. I just don't think it's in the cards."

"The Israelis have one eye on the calendar because of the pace at which the Iranians are proceeding both to develop their nuclear weapons capability and to do things like increase their defenses," Bolton said.

"They're also obviously looking at the American election calendar. My judgment is they would not want to do anything before our election because there's no telling what impact it could have on the election."

Waiting for a new president, however, would cause problems for Israel, according to Bolton. "An Obama victory would rule out military action by the Israelis because they would fear the consequences given the approach Obama has taken to foreign policy," he said. "With McCain they might still be looking at a delay."

Bolton said that the Arab world would publicly denounce such an attack but would privately be pleased.

Referring to Israel's ability to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, Bolton said the key was to break Iran's control over the nuclear fuel cycle. "That could be accomplished for example by destroying the uranium conversion facility at Esfahan or the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz," he said.

"That doesn't end the problem but it buys time during which a more permanent solution might be found.... How long? That would be hard to say. Depends on the extent of the destruction."

[Taimyr]

Estonian tomatoes:

[Michael]

Just heard, and just realised - the sparrows have disappeared... all over the world

[Jennifer-]

Just heard, and just realised - the sparrows have disappeared... all over the world

disappeared?

[nichi]

Just heard, and just realised - the sparrows have disappeared... all over the world

? There are several here -- a flock of them, just about -- in the backyard here right now.

[Michael]

disappearing  - but significantly so.

actually we used to have a big flock in the garden, and now I think about it, I've hardly seen any for some time.

[tangerine dream]

They must have all come to Thunder Bay!  Because we have a ton of them in our yard each morning.
 

[erik]

disappearing  - but significantly so.

actually we used to have a big flock in the garden, and now I think about it, I've hardly seen any for some time.

Yes, they've been talking about it and in some places changes are already dramatic.

[Michael]

You Californians are at it again!

Will you never stop playing with matches?

[nichi]

You Californians are at it again!

Will you never stop playing with matches?

This time, lightning was the culprit. Or so they say, anyway.

[erik]

Being on holidays gives me quite a bit of time to read. I'm now going through books analysing the changes world has been undergoing since 2001. There have been projects like Pax Americana aka The New American Century, , etc. Russia is definitely looking back at Soviet times when Soviet military might scared everybody.

American neo-cons were probably the only ones trying to move on, trying ot build something that has not been before, though, it was probably envisioned as a solutions to cope with growing Indian-Chinese might. However, the idea of Pax Americana does not differ from ancient Rome that sought to comprehensively defeat every single enemy in order to feel safe (and thus enlarge their empire).

Radical Islam seeks going back no less than by one millenium. They want Pax Islam and return of the prospering Caliphate.

Russians want back the honour and power of their lost Czarist-Communist empire. They hark back from few decades to one century.

There were some German soccer fans that raised the slogan 'Ein Folk, Ein Team, Ein Goal' at the European soccer championships that suspiciously reminded a bit older 'Ein Folk, Ein Reich, Ein Führer'.

Where is this glorious past, where are these nice times we could play with our world and play World Wars? Why the hell is the world so screwed up? not that the answer is unknown