Author Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!  (Read 30833 times)

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1815 on: December 07, 2012, 08:11:43 PM »
They can't bomb the chemical sites once the chemical have been 'mixed', which is the information coming through. So count that out - it would be a catastrophe.

The US can't do anything militarily about the sites, no matter how much they crow about it. George Bush has shattered America's financial, political and moral credentials to act in such a major way in Syria. So forget that.

The Arab league is not going to act, because they never do. Israel won't act unless it directly threatens them, as they have way too much on their hands.

So long as Syria keeps at least 80% of this battle internal, no one will do anything.

The nightmare continuing in Syria will continue until one side defeats the other. At present, I can see only one answer - the Alawites will be utterly destroyed.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1816 on: December 08, 2012, 12:43:31 AM »
They can't bomb the chemical sites once the chemical have been 'mixed', which is the information coming through. So count that out - it would be a catastrophe.

Do not be so sure. A whole generation of weapons has been developed for destruction chemical and biological agents loaded into warheads. At the end, it is a calculus about casualty numbers. What would cause more of them?

The best option would be a decapitation strike against Syrian leadership with negotiated ceasefire between government forces and rebels, but that has to be pre-emptive and complete surprise for al-Assad. Moreover, rebels would have to accept it. That is not the case.

As of now, we see al-Assad seeing only gallows in front of him and tremendous weaponry at his disposal. It is hard to rule out anything.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1817 on: December 13, 2012, 11:32:49 PM »
The end is nearing


Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1818 on: December 14, 2012, 07:44:13 AM »
And now even the Russians admit it.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1819 on: December 18, 2012, 06:45:21 PM »
Elsewhere, there was a question about what 2012 could mean for middle classes of our world. Mostly continuation of what is shown in the article below: hundreds and thousands of studies, heavy egocentric thinking about where and what part of their world view and habits could or should be compromised, lots of argument about who should actually compromise their welfare, and minimum action (that is nevertheless required for upkeep of self-deception and the achievement of 'feel-good' effect). '

That's the classic and still apparently immutable learning curve through suffering. That's the option billions of our co-travellers go for so enthusiastically. Instead of learning proactively, they opt for reactive absorbtion of wisdom.

As one wonderful yogi said: 'Everything is precisely as good as it could be...and not one bit better.'

Loss of biodiversity increasingly threatens human well-being: research

Twenty years after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, 17 prominent ecologists are calling for renewed international efforts to curb the loss of biological diversity, which is compromising nature's ability to provide goods and services essential for human well-being.

http://phys.org/news/2012-06-loss-biodiversity-increasingly-threatens-human.html

Over the past two decades, strong scientific evidence has emerged showing that loss of the world's biological diversity reduces the productivity and sustainability of natural ecosystems and decreases their ability to provide society with goods and services like food, wood, fodder, fertile soils, and protection from pests and disease, according to an international team of ecologists led by the University of Michigan's Bradley Cardinale.

Human actions are dismantling Earth's natural ecosystems, resulting in species extinctions at rates several orders of magnitude faster than observed in the fossil record. Even so, there's still time—if the nations of the world make biodiversity preservation an international priority—to conserve much of the remaining variety of life and to restore much of what's been lost, according to Cardinale and his colleagues.

The researchers present their findings in the June 7 edition of the journal Nature, in an article titled "Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity." The paper is a scientific consensus statement that summarizes evidence that has emerged from more than 1,000 ecological studies over the past two decades.

"Much as the consensus statements by doctors led to public warnings that tobacco use is harmful to your health, this is a consensus statement by experts who agree that loss of Earth's wild species will be harmful to the world's ecosystems and may harm society by reducing ecosystem services that are essential to human health and prosperity," said Cardinale, an associate professor at the U-M School of Natural Resources and Environment and in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology.

"We need to take biodiversity loss far more seriously—from individuals to international governing bodies—and take greater action to prevent further losses of species," said Cardinale, the first author of the Nature paper.

An estimated 9 million species of plants, animals, protists and fungi inhabit the Earth, sharing it with some 7 billion people.

The call to action comes as international leaders prepare to gather in Rio de Janeiro on June 20-22 for the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, known as the Rio+20 Conference. The upcoming conference marks the 20th anniversary of 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, which resulted in 193 nations supporting the Convention on Biological Diversity's goals of biodiversity conservation and the sustainable use of natural resources.

The 1992 Earth Summit caused an explosion of interest in understanding how biodiversity loss might impact the dynamics and functioning of ecosystems, as well as the supply of goods and services of value to society. In the Nature paper, Cardinale and his colleagues review published studies on the topic and list six consensus statements, four emerging trends and four "balance of evidence" statements.

The balance of evidence shows, for example, that genetic diversity increases the yield of commercial crops, enhances the production of wood in tree plantations, improves the production of fodder in grasslands, and increases the stability of yields in fisheries. Increased plant diversity also results in greater resistance to invasion by exotic plants, inhibits plant pathogens such as fungal and viral infections, increases above-ground carbon sequestration through enhanced biomass, and increases nutrient remineralization and soil organic matter.

"No one can agree on what exactly will happen when an ecosystem loses a species, but most of us agree that it's not going to be good. And we agree that if ecosystems lose most of their species, it will be a disaster," said Shahid Naeem of Columbia University, one of the co-authors of the Nature paper. "Twenty years and a thousand studies later, what the world thought was true in Rio in 1992 has finally been proven: Biodiversity underpins our ability to achieve sustainable development."

Despite far-reaching support for the Convention on Biological Diversity, biodiversity loss has continued over the past two decades, often at increasing rates. In response, a new set of diversity-preservation goals for 2020, known as the Aichi targets, was recently formulated. Also, a new international body called the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services was formed in April 2012 to guide a global response toward sustainable management of the world's biodiversity and ecosystems.

Significant gaps in the science behind biological diversity remain and must be addressed if the Aichi targets are to be met, Cardinale and his colleagues write in Nature.

"This paper is important both because of what it shows we know and because of what it shows we don't know," said David Hooper of Western Washington University, one of the study co-authors. "Several of the key questions we outline help point the way for the next generation of research on how changing biodiversity affects human well-being."

Without an understanding of the fundamental ecological processes that link biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services, attempts to forecast the societal consequences of diversity loss, and to meet policy objectives, are likely to fail, the 17 ecologists write.

"But with that fundamental understanding in hand, we may yet bring the modern era of biodiversity loss to a safe end for humanity," they conclude.

In addition to Cardinale, Naeem and Hooper, co-authors of the Nature paper are: J. Emmett Duffy of The College of William and Mary; Andrew Gonzalez of McGill University; Charles Perrings and Ann Kinzig of Arizona State University; Patrick Venail and Anita Narwani of U-M's School of Natural Resources and Environment; Georgina Mace of Imperial College London; David Tilman of the University of Minnesota; David Wardle of the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; Gretchen Daily of Stanford University; Michel Loreau of Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique in Moulis, France; James Grace of the U.S. Geological Survey; Anne Larigauderie of the Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle in Rue Cuvier, France; and Diane Srivastava of the University of British Columbia.

The work was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation and funding from the University of California-Santa Barbara and the state of California.

"Water purity, food production and air quality are easy to take for granted, but all are largely provided by communities of organisms," said George Gilchrist, program director in the National Science Foundation's Division of Environmental Biology, which funded the research. "This paper demonstrates that it is not simply the quantity of living things, but their species, genetic and trait biodiversity that influences the delivery of many essential 'ecosystem services.'"
« Last Edit: December 18, 2012, 06:47:24 PM by erik »

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1820 on: December 18, 2012, 09:23:21 PM »
 ::)

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1821 on: December 18, 2012, 11:25:51 PM »
::)

Always 'how', never 'what'.
20 years and 1,000 studies, 40 years and 3,000 studies. To show what? That ecosystem is degrading? That climate is changing? That there might be a tad too many of us for our present lifestyle?

While we figure out how to reduce certain elements of pollution that we establish as root causes of some destructive processes, we will be lagging behind even more than now. :) Moreover, we will have twice the number of academic schools arguing incessantly and powerfully with each other, referendums, laws, parliamentary hearings, etc. No shortage of activity! Always about 'how'.

I've mentioned it before, but this thing is worth mentioning again. One research group spent nearly US $200,000 to establish that mother's love has a very positive effect on development of a child.

Inertia is amazing thing.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1822 on: January 09, 2013, 05:54:45 PM »
The Woes of an American Drone Operator

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/pain-continues-after-war-for-american-drone-pilot-a-872726.html

By Nicola Abé





For more than five years, Brandon Bryant worked in an oblong, windowless container about the size of a trailer, where the air-conditioning was kept at 17 degrees Celsius (63 degrees Fahrenheit) and, for security reasons, the door couldn't be opened. Bryant and his coworkers sat in front of 14 computer monitors and four keyboards. When Bryant pressed a button in New Mexico, someone died on the other side of the world.

The container is filled with the humming of computers. It's the brain of a drone, known as a cockpit in Air Force parlance. But the pilots in the container aren't flying through the air. They're just sitting at the controls.

Bryant was one of them, and he remembers one incident very clearly when a Predator drone was circling in a figure-eight pattern in the sky above Afghanistan, more than 10,000 kilometers (6,250 miles) away. There was a flat-roofed house made of mud, with a shed used to hold goats in the crosshairs, as Bryant recalls. When he received the order to fire, he pressed a button with his left hand and marked the roof with a laser. The pilot sitting next to him pressed the trigger on a joystick, causing the drone to launch a Hellfire missile. There were 16 seconds left until impact.

"These moments are like in slow motion," he says today. Images taken with an infrared camera attached to the drone appeared on his monitor, transmitted by satellite, with a two-to-five-second time delay.

With seven seconds left to go, there was no one to be seen on the ground. Bryant could still have diverted the missile at that point. Then it was down to three seconds. Bryant felt as if he had to count each individual pixel on the monitor. Suddenly a child walked around the corner, he says.

Second zero was the moment in which Bryant's digital world collided with the real one in a village between Baghlan and Mazar-e-Sharif.

Bryant saw a flash on the screen: the explosion. Parts of the building collapsed. The child had disappeared. Bryant had a sick feeling in his stomach.

"Did we just kill a kid?" he asked the man sitting next to him.

"Yeah, I guess that was a kid," the pilot replied.

"Was that a kid?" they wrote into a chat window on the monitor.

Then, someone they didn't know answered, someone sitting in a military command center somewhere in the world who had observed their attack. "No. That was a dog," the person wrote.

They reviewed the scene on video. A dog on two legs?

 Invisible Warfare

When Bryant left the container that day, he stepped directly into America: dry grasslands stretching to the horizon, fields and the smell of liquid manure. Every few seconds, a light on the radar tower at the Cannon Air Force Base flashed in the twilight. There was no war going on there.

Modern warfare is as invisible as a thought, deprived of its meaning by distance. It is no unfettered war, but one that is controlled from small high-tech centers in various places in the world. The new (way of conducting) war is supposed to be more precise than the old one, which is why some call it "more humane." It's the war of an intellectual, a war United States President Barack Obama has promoted more than any of his predecessors.

In a corridor at the Pentagon where the planning for this war takes place, the walls are covered with dark wood paneling. The men from the Air Force have their offices here. A painting of a Predator, a drone on canvas, hangs next to portraits of military leaders. From the military's perspective, no other invention has been as successful in the "war on terror" in recent years as the Predator.

The US military guides its drones from seven air bases in the United States, as well as locations abroad, including one in the East African nation of Djibouti. From its headquarters in Langley, Virginia, the CIA controls operations in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen.

 'We Save Lives'

Colonel William Tart, a man with pale eyes and a clear image of the enemy, calls the drone a "natural extension of the distance."

Until a few months ago, when he was promoted to head the US Air Force's Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) Task Force in Langley, Tart was a commander at the Creech Air Force Base in Nevada, near Las Vegas, where he headed drone operations. Whenever he flew drones himself, he kept a photo of his wife and three daughters pasted into the checklist next to the monitors.

He doesn't like the word drone, because he says it implies that the vehicle has its own will or ego. He prefers to call them "remotely piloted aircraft," and he points out that most flights are for gathering information. He talks about the use of drones on humanitarian missions after the earthquake in Haiti, and about the military successes in the war in Libya: how his team fired on a truck that was pointing rockets at Misrata, and how it chased the convoy in which former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi and his entourage were fleeing. He describes how the soldiers on the ground in Afghanistan are constantly expressing their gratitude for the assistance from the air. "We save lives," he says.

He doesn't say as much about the targeted killing. He claims that during his two years as operations commander at Creech, he never saw any noncombatants die, and that the drones only fire at buildings when women and children are not in them. When asked about the chain of command, Tart mentions a 275-page document called 3-09.3. Essentially, it states that drone attacks must be approved, like any other attacks by the Air Force. An officer in the country where the operations take place has to approve them.

The use of the term "clinical war" makes him angry. It reminds him of the Vietnam veterans who accuse him of never having waded through the mud or smelled blood, and who say that he doesn't know what he's talking about.

That isn't true, says Tart, noting that he often used the one-hour drive from work back to Las Vegas to distance himself from his job. "We watch people for months. We see them playing with their dogs or doing their laundry. We know their patterns like we know our neighbors' patterns. We even go to their funerals." It wasn't always easy, he says.

 One of the paradoxes of drones is that, even as they increase the distance to the target, they also create proximity. "War somehow becomes personal," says Tart.

 'I Saw Men, Women and Children Die'

A yellow house stands on the outskirts of the small city of Missoula, Montana, against a background of mountains, forests and patches of fog. The ground is coated with the first snow of the season. Bryant, now 27, is sitting on the couch in his mother's living room. He has since left the military and is now living back at home. He keeps his head shaved and has a three-day beard. "I haven't been dreaming in infrared for four months," he says with a smile, as if this were a minor victory for him.

Bryant completed 6,000 flight hours during his six years in the Air Force. "I saw men, women and children die during that time," says Bryant. "I never thought I would kill that many people. In fact, I thought I couldn't kill anyone at all."

Part 2: An Unpopular Job

After graduating from high school, Bryant wanted to become an investigative journalist. He used to go to church on Sundays, and he had a thing for redheaded cheerleaders. By the end of his first semester at college, he had already racked up thousands of dollars in debt.

He came to the military by accident. One day, while accompanying a friend who was enlisting in the army, he heard that the Air Force had its own university, and that he could get a college education for free. Bryant did so well in tests that he was assigned to an intelligence collection unit. He learned how to control the cameras and lasers on a drone, as well as to analyze ground images, maps and weather data. He became a sensor operator, more or less the equivalent to a co-pilot.

He was 20 when he flew his first mission over Iraq. It was a hot, sunny day in Nevada, but it was dark inside the container and just before daybreak in Iraq. A group of American soldiers were on their way back to their base camp. Bryant's job was to monitor the road, to be their "guardian angel" in the sky.

He saw an eye, a shape in the asphalt. "I knew the eye from the training," he says. To bury an improvised explosive device in the road, the enemy combatants place a tire on the road and burn it to soften the asphalt. Afterwards it looks like an eye from above.

The soldiers' convoy was still miles away from the eye. Bryant told his supervisor, who notified the command center. He was forced to look on for several minutes, Bryant says today, as the vehicles approached the site.

"What should we do?" he asked his coworker.

But the pilot was also new on the job.

The soldiers on the ground couldn't be reached by radio, because they were using a jamming transmitter. Bryant saw the first vehicle drive over the eye. Nothing happened.

Then the second vehicle drove over it. Bryant saw a flash beneath, followed by an explosion inside the vehicle.

Five American soldiers were killed.

From then on, Bryant couldn't keep the five fellow Americans out of his thoughts. He began learning everything by heart, including the manuals for the Predator and the missiles, and he familiarized himself with every possible scenario. He was determined to be the best, so that this kind of thing would never happen again.

'I Felt Disconnected from Humanity'

His shifts lasted up to 12 hours. The Air Force still had a shortage of personnel for its remote-controlled war over Iraq and Afghanistan. Drone pilots were seen as cowardly button-pushers. It was such an unpopular job that the military had to bring in retired personnel.

Bryant remembers the first time he fired a missile, killing two men instantly. As Bryant looked on, he could see a third man in mortal agony. The man's leg was missing and he was holding his hands over the stump as his warm blood flowed onto the ground -- for two long minutes. He cried on his way home, says Bryant, and he called his mother.

"I felt disconnected from humanity for almost a week," he says, sitting in his favorite coffee shop in Missoula, where the smell of cinnamon and butter wafts in the air. He spends a lot of time there, watching people and reading books by Nietzsche and Mark Twain, sometimes getting up to change seats. He can't sit in one place for very long anymore, he says. It makes him nervous.

His girlfriend broke up with him recently. She had asked him about the burden he carries, so he told her about it. But it proved to be a hardship she could neither cope with nor share.

When Bryant drives through his hometown, he wears aviator sunglasses and a Palestinian scarf. The inside of his Chrysler is covered with patches from his squadrons. On his Facebook page, he's created a photo album of his coins, unofficial medals he was awarded. All he has is this one past. He wrestles with it, but it is also a source of pride.

When he was sent to Iraq in 2007, he posted the words "ready for action" on his profile. He was assigned to an American military base about 100 kilometers (63 miles) from Baghdad, where his job was to take off and land drones.

As soon as the drones reached flying altitude, pilots in the United States took over. The Predator can remain airborne for an entire day, but it is also slow, which is why it is stationed near the area of operation. Bryant posed for photos wearing sand-colored overalls and a bulletproof vest, leaning against a drone.

Two years later, the Air Force accepted him into a special unit, and he was transferred to the Cannon Air Force Base in New Mexico. He and a fellow soldier shared a bungalow in a dusty town called Clovis, which consists mainly of trailers, gas stations and evangelical churches. Clovis is located hours away from the nearest city.

Bryant preferred night shifts, because that meant it was daytime in Afghanistan. In the spring, the landscape, with its snow-covered peaks and green valleys, reminded him of his native Montana. He saw people cultivating their fields, boys playing soccer and men hugging their wives and children.

When it got dark, Bryant switched to the infrared camera. Many Afghans sleep on the roof in the summer, because of the heat. "I saw them having sex with their wives. It's two infrared spots becoming one," he recalls.

He observed people for weeks, including Taliban fighters hiding weapons, and people who were on lists because the military, the intelligence agencies or local informants knew something about them.

"I got to know them. Until someone higher up in the chain of command gave me the order to shoot." He felt remorse because of the children, whose fathers he was taking away. "They were good daddies," he says.

In his free time, Bryant played video games or "World of Warcraft" on the Internet, or he went out drinking with the others. He can't watch TV anymore because it is neither challenging or stimulating enough for him. He's also having trouble sleeping these days.

 'There Was No Time for Feelings'

Major Vanessa Meyer, whose real name is covered with black tape, is giving a presentation at the Holloman Air Force Base in New Mexico on the training of drone pilots. The Air Force plans to have enough personnel to cover its needs by 2013.

Meyer, 34, who is wearing lip gloss and a diamond on her finger, used to fly cargo planes before she became a drone pilot. Dressed in green Air Force overalls, she is standing in a training cockpit and, using a simulator to demonstrate how a drone is guided over Afghanistan. The crosshair on the monitor follows a white car until it reaches a group of mud huts. One uses the joystick to determine the drone's direction, and the left hand is used to operate the lever that slows down or accelerates the unmanned aircraft. On an airfield behind the container, Meyer shows us the Predator, slim and shiny, and its big brother, the Reaper, which carries four missiles and a bomb. "Great planes," she says. "They just don't work in bad weather."

Meyer flew drones at Creech, the air base near Las Vegas, where young men drive in and out in sports cars and mountain chains stretch across the desert like giant reptiles. Describing his time as a drone pilot in Nevada, Colonel Matt Martin wrote in his book "Predator" that, "Sometimes I felt like God hurling thunderbolts from afar." Meyer had her first child when she was working there. She was still sitting in the cockpit, her stomach pressing up against the keyboard, in her ninth month of pregnancy.

"There was no time for feelings" when she was preparing for an attack, she says today. Of course, she says, she felt her heart beating faster and the adrenaline rushing through her body. But then she adhered strictly to the rules and focused on positioning the aircraft. "When the decision had been made, and they saw that this was an enemy, a hostile person, a legal target that was worthy of being destroyed, I had no problem with taking the shot."

Part 3: No Room for the Evils of the World

After work, she would drive home along US Highway 85 into Las Vegas, listening to country music and passing peace activists without looking at them. She rarely thought about what happened in the cockpit. But sometimes she would review the individual steps in her head, hoping to improve her performance.

Or she would go shopping. It felt strange to her, sometimes, when the woman at the register would ask: "How's it going?" She would answer: "I'm good. How are you? Have a nice day." When she felt restless she would go for a run. She says that being able to help the boys on the ground motivated her to get up every morning.

There was no room for the evils of the world in Meyer's home. She and her husband, a drone pilot, didn't talk about work. She would put on her pajamas and watch cartoons on TV or play with the baby.

Today Meyer has two small children. She wants to show them "that mommy can get to work and do a good job." She doesn't want to be like the women in Afghanistan she watched -- submissive and covered from head to toe. "The women there are no warriors," she says. Meyer says that he current job as a trainer is very satisfying but that, one day, she would like to return to combat duty.

'I Can't Just Switch Back and Go Back to Normal Life'

At some point, Brandon Bryant just wanted to get out and do something else. He spent a few more months overseas, this time in Afghanistan. But then, when he returned to New Mexico, he found that he suddenly hated the cockpit, which smelled of sweat. He began spraying air freshener to get rid of the stench. He also found he wanted to do something that saved lives rather than took them away. He thought working as a survival trainer might fit the bill, although his friends tried to dissuade him.

The program that he then began working on in his bungalow in Clovis every day was called Power 90 Extreme, a boot camp-style fitness regimen. It included dumbbell training, push-ups, chin-ups and sit-ups. He also lifted weights almost every day.

On uneventful days in the cockpit, he would write in his diary, jotting down lines like: "On the battlefield there are no sides, just bloodshed. Total war. Every horror witnessed. I wish my eyes would rot."

If he could just get into good enough shape, he thought to himself, they would let him do something different. The problem was that he was pretty good at his job.

At some point he no longer enjoyed seeing his friends. He met a girl, but she complained about his bad moods. "I can't just switch and go back to normal life," he told her. When he came home and couldn't sleep, he would exercise instead. He began talking back to his superior officers.

One day he collapsed at work, doubling over and spitting blood. The doctor told him to stay home, and ordered him not to return to work until he could sleep more than four hours a night for two weeks in a row.

"Half a year later, I was back in the cockpit, flying drones," says Bryant, sitting in his mother's living room in Missoula. His dog whimpers and lays its head on his cheek. He can't get to his own furniture at the moment. It's in storage, and he doesn't have the money to pay the bill. All he has left is his computer.

Bryant posted a drawing on Facebook the night before our interview. It depicts a couple standing, hand-in-hand, in a green meadow, looking up at the sky. A child and a dog are sitting on the ground next to them. But the meadow is just a part of the world. Beneath it is a sea of dying soldiers, propping themselves up with their last bit of strength, a sea of bodies, blood and limbs.

Doctors at the Veterans' Administration diagnosed Bryant with post-traumatic stress disorder. General hopes for a comfortable war -- one that could be completed without emotional wounds -- haven't been fulfilled. Indeed, Bryan's world has melded with that of the child in Afghanistan. It's like a short circuit in the brain of the drones.

Why isn't he with the Air Force anymore? There was one day, he says, when he knew that he wouldn't sign the next contract. It was the day Bryant walked into the cockpit and heard himself saying to his coworkers: "Hey, what motherflowerer is going to die today?"

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1823 on: January 16, 2013, 06:29:30 PM »
Black Carbon Twice as Dangerous as 2007 Estimate, Scientists Say

By Justin Doom - Jan 15, 2013 3:00 PM GMT+0200

The black carbon produced by diesel engines is nearly twice as damaging to the planet as estimated in 2007 and trails only carbon dioxide as the most dangerous climate pollutant, according to an article published online today in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

The four-year study by more than two dozen researchers also showed that black carbon causes “significantly higher warming” over the Arctic and can affect rainfall patterns in high- emitting regions such as Asia. The pollutant also has contributed to rising temperatures in mid- to high-latitude areas including the U.S. and Canada.

“The potential to slow warming by cutting black carbon is even more important than previously understood,” Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development, said today in a statement discussing the study. “It also kills over a million people every year who contract deadly respiratory diseases.”

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition, a group of more than two dozen nations that aims to reduce short-lived pollutants including methane, is pursuing projects that reduce black-carbon emissions from heavy-duty vehicle engines, brick production, waste burning and inefficient cookstoves.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced last year that the U.S. was joining the coalition, as “more than one-third of current global warming is caused by short-lived pollutants.” The U.S. contributed $12 million of the $15 million in startup funding, and committed an additional $10 million in annual support to existing efforts, Clinton said.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1824 on: January 30, 2013, 07:15:09 PM »
Heat from North American cities causing warmer winters, study finds

Researchers say extra heat generated by huge cities explains additional warming not explained by existing climate models

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/jan/27/scienceofclimatechange-climate-change

Those who wonder why large parts of North America seem to be skipping winter have a new answer in addition to climate change: big city life.

A study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that the heat thrown off by major metropolitan areas on America's east coast caused winter warming across large areas of North America, thousands of miles away from those cities.

Winter warming was detected as far away as the Canadian prairies. In some remote areas, temperature rose by as much as 1 degree C (1.8F) under the influence of big cities, which produced changes in the jet stream and other atmospheric systems, the study found.

Researchers found a similar pattern in Asia, where major population centres resulted in strong warming in Russia, northern Asia, and eastern China.

On the flip side, however, changes in atmospheric conditions had an opposite effect in Europe – lowering autumn temperatures by as much as 1 degree C (1.8F).

The extra heat generated by big cities was just a fraction of the warming caused by climate change or urbanisation, the researchers said. But the study did help scientists account for additional warming that was not explained by existing climate models.

"What really surprised us was that this energy use was a tiny amount, and yet it can create such a wide impact far away from the heat source," said Guang Zhang, a scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who led the study. "We didn't expect it to be this much."

Global temperature averages were barely affected by the big city heat, barely .01C on average. But big cities had a noticeable impact on regional temperatures almost on a continental scale.

Researchers said the extra heat should be taken into account in future climate projections.

Scientists have for years been trying to untangle how big cities – with the sprawl of buildings and cars – affect climate.

The study suggests cities themselves have far-reaching effects on climate, in addition to the climate pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1825 on: January 30, 2013, 07:19:39 PM »
Smog Thick Enough to Cancel Flights Hits Beijing

By LOUISE WATT Associated Press
BEIJING January 29, 2013 (AP)

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pollution-off-index-chinas-capital-18340626

Thick, off-the-scale smog shrouded eastern China for the second time in about two weeks Tuesday, forcing airlines to cancel flights because of poor visibility and prompting Beijing to temporarily shut factories and curtail fleets of government cars.
 
The capital was a colorless scene. Street lamps and the outlines of buildings receded into a white haze as pedestrians donned face masks to guard against the caustic air. The flight cancellations stranded passengers during the first week of the country's peak, six-week period for travel surrounding the Chinese New Year on Feb. 10.
 
The U.S. Embassy reported an hourly peak level of PM2.5 — tiny particulate matter that can penetrate deep into the lungs — at 526 micrograms per cubic meter, or "beyond index," and more than 20 times higher than World Health Organization safety levels over a 24-hour period.
 
Liu Peng, an employee at a financial institution in Beijing, said he will keep his newborn baby indoors.
 
"It's really bad for your health, obviously," Liu said. "I bike to work every day and always wear a mask. The pollution in recent years is probably due to the increase in private cars and government cars."
 
Visibility was less than 100 meters (100 yards) in some areas of eastern China, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. More than 100 flights were canceled in the eastern city of Zhengzhou, 33 in Beijing, 20 in Qingdao and 13 in Jinan.
 
Every year, China's transport system bursts at the seams as tens of millions of people travel for the Lunar New Year holiday, in the world's largest seasonal migration of people.
 
Ren Haiqiang, a bank worker in his early 30s, said he had booked tickets to fly out of Beijing on Thursday to visit family in the coastal city of Dalian, but now worried about flight cancellations.
 
"Traveling over the holiday is already a huge hassle, along with all the gift-giving and family visits. We thought flying would be the best way to avoid the crush, but if the weather continues like this we'll be in real trouble," Ren said as he waited in line at a bakery in downtown Beijing.
 
Beijing's city government ordered 103 heavily polluting factories to suspend production and told government departments and state-owned enterprises to reduce their use of cars by a third, Xinhua said. The measures last until Thursday.
 
Beijing's official readings for PM2.5 were lower than the embassy's — 433 micrograms per cubic meter at one point in the afternoon— but even that level is considered "severe" and prompted the city government to advise residents to stay indoors as much as possible. The government said that because there was no wind, the smog probably would not dissipate quickly.
 
Patients seeking treatment for respiratory ailments rose by about 30 percent over the past month at the Jiangong Hospital in downtown Beijing, Emergency Department chief Cui Qifeng said.
 
"People tend to catch colds or suffer from lung infections during the days with heavily polluted air," he said.
 
Air pollution has long been a problem in Beijing, but the country has been more open about releasing statistics on PM2.5 — considered a more accurate reflection of air quality than other pollutants — only since early last year. The city hit its highest readings on Jan. 12, when U.S. Embassy readings of PM2.5 reached as high as 886 micrograms per cubic meter.
 
Celebrity real estate developer Pan Shiyi, who has previously pushed for cities to publish more detailed air quality data and who is a delegate to Beijing's legislature, called Tuesday morning for a "Clean Air Act." By late afternoon, his online poll had received more than 29,000 votes, with 99 percent in favor.
 
On Monday, Wang Anshun was elected Beijing's mayor after telling lawmakers the municipal government should make more efforts to fight air pollution, according to Xinhua.
 
Last week, he announced plans to remove 180,000 older vehicles from the city's roads and promote government cars and heating systems that use clean energy

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1826 on: February 11, 2013, 09:03:15 PM »
The purpose of this thread is to keep us all awake to the fact that we can't expect life to continue without interruption indefinitely.

The big question for all of us, is whether we personally can continue with our life without major interruptions from large external forces? Of course, there will always be plenty of personal, major interruptions - that's the lot of life. But the awareness here is for example, were you living in Syria, with your teenage kids down on the streets demonstrating, a few years ago - were that your situation, what would you have done?

I see that we are all in that precise situation right now with Global Warming. The phrase Climate Change is insufficient, because it only looks at climate - I sense there is far more at stake.

My current assessment, and I do keep abreast of things (which means I hear the contra indications which are legitimate), is that most of the other troubles assailing humanity - disease, global financial, social dislocation etc - are theoretically fixable through determined intelligent effort. However Global Warming has too long a trajectory to be reeled in within any reasonable timeframe.

The question for us now, is what do we expect from a changing global environment, and how will it affect me?

Many commentators are speaking in terms of the end of the century. I think that's ridiculously too optimistic. Despite a new report indication there is no statistical indication that extreme events are more common now than previously, I sense we are in for a very turbulent time starting right now.

tbc

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1827 on: February 11, 2013, 09:54:41 PM »
Might be of interest

In the case of Syria, options were simple:
1) feel like fighting? Fight, be ready to take what comes your way, and pay the price.
2) see no point in fighting, don't want to take lives? Run, ASAP.

Climate warming...? ? ?
« Last Edit: February 11, 2013, 10:01:30 PM by erik »

Offline Muffin

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1828 on: February 12, 2013, 03:12:39 AM »
In these communities where I am now I meet lots of "alternative" traveler people. No one ever mentions climate change and warming, but there's lots of talk of permaculture and sustainability (and being spiritual). I don't even know what they mean anymore. I feel that people are missing the big picture. They are dreaming of a future where everybody lives in a sustainable way, but imho sustainability works only with small numbers. Once you reach a certain threshold the laws and rules they see brake down.
   It's good to see people trying to change, but maybe we already reached the limit where being sustainable on a global level it's just not possible anymore.  Either they will go down in history like pioneers or survival.

  I don't know  How future events will affect me,  but if the shit hits the fan I'd rather be outside the range of large cities (or small) and have some knowledge about my surroundings (nature-wise). I'm learning to work with plants,  recognize which ones are useful, plant them and care for them, while I also get a bit more fit. My guts says that computer skills won't save me if trouble comes.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2013, 04:19:34 AM by Muffin »
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erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #1829 on: February 15, 2013, 09:21:36 PM »
The US National Intelligence Council and academics put together a vision of our world in 2030.

 

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