My take on Crimea.
Obviously we all know the place is full of Russian-loving people, who see their financial and cultural return to Russia as a boon.
Will the West act? no. Will Putin get away with it? yes. Will Putin push further into Ukraine? yes.
What is behind this aside from some obvious matters of history, gas and ethnicity? And what are the consequences? This, I haven't a clue. I can't believe Putin would do this without some larger complex scheme in mind, and what that all is, is beyond me. I would not like to be a Western loving Ukrainian?
Now we watch to see if Ukraine will use it's military to 'hold the line', which has already moved beyond Crimea.
What we see in Ukraine, is a very serious development. The events began with
Euromaidan where Ukrainians protested against the decision of their Russian-minded and unvbelievably corrupt president Yanukovich to not sign assiociation agreement with the EU. By now there is little doubt that Yanukovich was acting on direct orders from Moscow. He pretty much bankrupted Ukraine and weakend its defence forces dramatically. As Euromaidan culminated in deaths of nearly 100 people in one day, Yanukovich escaped to Russia.
Russia, fearing that Ukraine might join the European Union and push the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea,
sent in its special forces. They blockaded Ukrainian units in Crimea and assisted in preparation and execution of a phony and invalid referendum on 16 March. The outcome - close to 100% of voters wanting to secede Ukraine and join Russia - was to be expected.
Russia has been building up its forces in Crimea and the grouping comprises well over 20,000 troops. Simultaneously there are around 120,000 troops stationed at Ukraine's borders in high readiness to launch a full-scale offensive.
Ukraine has around 6,000 men in combat-capable units and today they declared mobilisation. In theory, Ukraine could mobilise up to 1 million men and arm them to their teeth, but their combat value would be low. Realistic figure of more or less combat-capable troops would be around 20,000-30,000.
In sum: at the end of February-beginning of March we have witnessed a first massive armed invasion and annexation of a territory of a European state since World War II. What Russia did - under the guise of protecting compatriots - is no different from how Hitler annexed Sudetenland in 1938. Perhaps, the only difference is that there was no Munich Conference beforehand.
The US, EU and many more states have refused to accept what Russia has done. Armed invasions and annexations of parts of states or whole states is a practice that has led to world wars. As of now, the US and EU are implementing a first round of sanctions. Russia is vulnerable - 52% of its economy is nothing but export of oil and natural gas. Lower the price of these commodities, and Russia may go bankrupt and fall apart - in the worst case scenario. It is that simple, really. So far, West has been rather moderate, but Russia itself has slapped some preventive economic sanctions on the EU and US.
Where this will develop to, is anybody's guess. Among Ukrainians anger is building. A brethren nation has invaded them and wants to dictate what Ukraine should and should not do. Imagine British invading Australia right now and you will get the same shock, incomprehension and utter feeling of anger and betrayal. Apparently, Putin wants Ukraine to stay out of the EU and remain economically enslaved to Russia. My friends tell me that anger in Ukraine is also aimed at their own present government that has shown lack of stamina and willingness to confront Russian in terms of brute force.
Ukrainians know how to fight. A military profession has been an honourable trade there for a long time and Ukrainians have shown their skills and stamina in the Soviet forces as well in various international operations. Troughout times they have contributed more officers than has been their fair share to the armies of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union. In the long-term, Russia does not stand a chance. They would be extremely hard-pressed to occupy a country with 46 million people who resist actively in military terms. Any attempt to do so would be disastrous for Russia.
However, there have been strong doubts regarding Putin's sense of reality and understanding of what Russia realistically could and could not do. In the worst case scenario, this might be the very beginning of the apocalypse Taimi so desired not so long ago.
