I think the US and these states are blowing away all the worried concerns, and choosing to believe they can isolate and destroy IS, without destabilising all those background patterns of power. We will see.
Attack from the air...?
It is utterly frightening how Obama does and says mostly right and sensible things, but gets the timing unbelievably wrong. The outcome is a disaster beyond belief. Reactive strategy in the hope that world can be thoroughly rationalised is a folly.
* Obama's refusal to take a proactive stance with regard to Syrian upheaval in 2011-2012-2013 led to a collapse of the secular Free Syrian Army and dominance of Islamist forces in the rebel camp. Who exactly is the US going to train and arm now - in 2014???
* US departure from Iraq ASAP in 2011 allowed Iran to set up al-Maliki's utterly authoritarian Shia regime brought about the unholy union of former Saddam top military, ISIS and Sunni tribes. The outcome is IS.
* Yet another air campaign against Islamists who will use civilians as a shield and resort to all the tricks they've learned in Afghanistan and Iraq is a highly questionable proposition that has considerbale potential to play into the hands of jihadis.
IS is nothing but the most sincere dream of bin Laden come true. IS top dog, Caliph Ibrahim, also known as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has never sworn allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, but only to bin Laden who tasked al-Baghdadi to set up the core of Caliphate in Levant (Syria-Iraq).
In essence, IS is now taking over from al-Qaeda. Their pitch is as follows: al-Qaeda (that means a "base" or "foundation") was a first step towards a Caliphate. It was Caliphate's foundation. IS
is the Caliphate materialised. It is difficult to imagine the outburst of joy and celebration on jihadi forums in the Internet that followed the establishment of Caliphate.
Moreover, al-Qaeda has been changing its strategy over 2013 as well. Al-Zawahiri issued a guidance that the international jihadi movement was to embark on the path of insurgency and to start building a Caliphate. The idea was that they could gradually take over one Muslim state after another and link them up into a massive state stretching from Morocco to Afghanistan. Hence, even the old al-Qaeda (al-Qaeda central) has been turning away from its tefforist practices and focusing on deposing governments.
Last November I met with some former al-Qaeda guys, former European and Asian jihadis. What they saw then, was staggering. al-Qaeda ideology is spreading in the Middle East and Africa like a bush fire. New movements - although physically disconnected from al-Qaeda central - are popping up like mushrooms. Jihadism is more and more popular. IS is serving as a massive catalyst for that movement and ideology, and many jihadis from Africa and elsewhere are already moving to Caliphate and bringing over their families.
Now, what could all-so-familiar-recipe-of-air-campaign accomplish in such an environment?
As you see, I am not overly optimistic regarding yet another belated step of Obama.