Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[Michael]

Kobane is becoming interesting. While IS was outside the city, they could employ their superior weaponry, but now the battle has become a street fight, that weaponry is less useful. The Kurds have the weapons necessary for street fighting, so long as they have enough bullets, but also, they know Kobane extremely well, and they have a strong desire to defend their own city. If IS win here, I would be curious as to why.

[runningstream]

terribly sad

so much pain people are going through

[Michael]

I've got the picture now about the Kurds. The Kurds in Iraq are the good guys. The Kurds in Syria and Turkey are the bad guys. Of course they are the same people, but the context is different. So the US helped the Iraqi Kurds, but not the Syrian Kurds, at least not directly. The Syrian-Turkish Kurdish groups are considered tefforists, mainly because they have been fighting for their own country against Syria and Turkey for a long time.

There are economic consideration for Turkey about how Syria turns out - they trade through Syria to the Gulf states - but in general they have been resisting a Kurdish homeland in Syria and Turkey, which is why their famous leader, Öcalan, has been in prison for as long as I can remember.

Turkey thinks ISIL is easily defeated once a moderate stable government is established in Syria, and that will happen when Assad goes. So it has supported any rebel group that is fighting Assad, including ISIL. When Assad pulled his military away from the Kurdish areas of Syria, the Kurds there wanted a separate state. This freaked out Turkey. There were talks between them all, and promises of support if the Kurds dropped their separate state claims, but I gather ISIL's advance scotched all those plans.

What Turkey hasn't factored in, is firstly, the chance of the moderate rebels setting up a stable central Syrian government is next to nil. Secondly, is the Kurdish outrage of Turkey abandoning the Syrian Kurds - they have laid the foundation of serious trouble within Turkey, as Kurds make up 20% of Turkish population. Thirdly, they have not recognised the problems of ISIL, a movement that does not recognise country boarders, controlling the vast Syrian-Turkey boarder.

[Michael]

Not sure if any here are interested in this conflict in Syria-Iraq. But methinks, you will all be interest in the very near future. I don't observe and comment on these confrontation for purely intellectual reasons. We have to live in a world that is periodically struck through with vast disruptions. Vicki lives in a militarised area, Jen has a husband from the forces, and a son in one of the current hot spots. We all have to navigate through the consequences of these global upheavals. We have an ultimate task, yet it must be prosecuted within the sapien insanity in which we live.

"Al Qaedaism, the ideology, is stronger today than ever, thanks to the failure of the Arab spring and the battlefield has expanded from Mali to Pakistan and beyond to Australia and Europe" [veteran White House adviser and CIA analyst Bruce Riedel]

The situation in Syria-Iraq is being misread by most players. We though the Ukraine-Russia stouch was worse, and it may yet turn out that way. But if you just think for a moment about how the US responded to the Russian involvement in Cuba not so long ago, you can understand how Russia feels about Western/Nato encroachment into satellite nations around it. So long as the West pulls back from that strategy, Russia may just calm down, as did the US with Cuba. Or it may not...

Let's consider a few facts. In the Levant region, the arms sales now top $50 billion. Saudi Arabia has just donated a billion dollars of military hardware to Lebanon. Lebanon is about half Muslim, divided equally between Shia and Sunni. They are currently under attack from ISIL in the form of prisoner exchange pressures, and have already seen incursions from ISIL.

Consider this one fact, that since the beginning of August US bombing in Iraq, intelligence services state that as many as 6,000 volunteers have flocked to join Islamic State. Other experts believe that if the US continue to bomb Nusra Front, which is al-Qaeda affiliated yet opposed to Islamic State, it will drive many more Sunnis from Syria and Iraq to their support.

Also consider that US bombing is futile without potent ground troops, and that local states have hardly lifted a finger to help the US, probably because many of them are actually incompetent militarily, their officer corps being jobs of privilege.

The previous UN negotiator in Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi: "There is a serious risk that the entire region will blow up. The conflict is not going to stay inside Syria. It will spill over into the region. It's already destabilising Lebanon [where there are] 1.5 million refugees – that represents one-third of the population – if it were Germany, it would be the equivalent of 20 million people. It will become another Somalia. It will not be divided, as many have predicted. It's going to be a failed state, with warlords all over the place."

Dr Anthony Cordesman, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies:"you can surely count on people to not understand that intervening to deal with a few thousand people can displace hundreds of thousands". There are so many scenarios that could trigger a global involvement. The situation is highly volatile now, and IS seem to sit in the middle delighting in their own enhancement through emotional aggravation of the Western countries.

[erik]

Not sure if any here are interested in this conflict in Syria-Iraq. But methinks, you will all be interest in the very near future. I don't observe and comment on these confrontation for purely intellectual reasons. We have to live in a world that is periodically struck through with vast disruptions. Vicki lives in a militarised area, Jen has a husband from the forces, and a son in one of the current hot spots. We all have to navigate through the consequences of these global upheavals. We have an ultimate task, yet it must be prosecuted within the sapien insanity in which we live.

I'd say we are living in a period of history where the world will experience a massive change. Remember the 30 Year War? It started as a religious war and ended with creation of a modern state system. Today we are witnessing how several states, societies, religions fail to change and adapt. Russia, IS have no working socio-politico-economic model to offer. Yet they try to impose by force their world view/model. The inevitable outcome is war and I would say - a very long war. War is Change, albeit a violent Change.

"Al Qaedaism, the ideology, is stronger today than ever, thanks to the failure of the Arab spring and the battlefield has expanded from Mali to Pakistan and beyond to Australia and Europe" [veteran White House adviser and CIA analyst Bruce Riedel]

The situation in Syria-Iraq is being misread by most players. We though the Ukraine-Russia stouch was worse, and it may yet turn out that way. But if you just think for a moment about how the US responded to the Russian involvement in Cuba not so long ago, you can understand how Russia feels about Western/Nato encroachment into satellite nations around it. So long as the West pulls back from that strategy, Russia may just calm down, as did the US with Cuba. Or it may not...

That is a bit peacenik/hipster statement. Horrible imperialists encroaching on Russia, who feels  so vulnerable.
What many people miss, is that Russia (like political Islam) has failed to produce to workable socio-economic model of state. It is very willing to argue about zones of influence and encroachment, but has little to offer except oligarchic, extraordinarily corrupt puppet regimes for countries it thinks are its "near abroad". In Ukraine, we witnessed a national awakening that swept away such puppet regime of Russia. That national awakening has little trust in any politicians and is not that blind to faults of the Western world, but Ukrainians see that it is still better than what Russia has to offer.

Russia responded to Ukraine's drive to the EU with annexation of Crimea, war and creation of enclave in the Eastern Ukraine. Mind you that 80-90% of combatants among "separatists" have been Russian mercenaries hired and trained in Russia by Russian state.

Let's consider a few facts. In the Levant region, the arms sales now top $50 billion. Saudi Arabia has just donated a billion dollars of military hardware to Lebanon. Lebanon is about half Muslim, divided equally between Shia and Sunni. They are currently under attack from ISIL in the form of prisoner exchange pressures, and have already seen incursions from ISIL.

Consider this one fact, that since the beginning of August US bombing in Iraq, intelligence services state that as many as 6,000 volunteers have flocked to join Islamic State. Other experts believe that if the US continue to bomb Nusra Front, which is al-Qaeda affiliated yet opposed to Islamic State, it will drive many more Sunnis from Syria and Iraq to their support.

Also consider that US bombing is futile without potent ground troops, and that local states have hardly lifted a finger to help the US, probably because many of them are actually incompetent militarily, their officer corps being jobs of privilege.

The previous UN negotiator in Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi: "There is a serious risk that the entire region will blow up. The conflict is not going to stay inside Syria. It will spill over into the region. It's already destabilising Lebanon [where there are] 1.5 million refugees – that represents one-third of the population – if it were Germany, it would be the equivalent of 20 million people. It will become another Somalia. It will not be divided, as many have predicted. It's going to be a failed state, with warlords all over the place."

Dr Anthony Cordesman, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies:"you can surely count on people to not understand that intervening to deal with a few thousand people can displace hundreds of thousands". There are so many scenarios that could trigger a global involvement. The situation is highly volatile now, and IS seem to sit in the middle delighting in their own enhancement through emotional aggravation of the Western countries.

Yes, very much so...and completely inevitable. The war will resolve this dead end one way or another. The US has been bombing around for the last 20 years in the hope of managing crises this way. Al-Qaeda has only grown stronger, but has still little-to-nothing to offer to societies. Some say that political Islam as such - embodied by Muslim Brotherhood - has failed to produce workable societies and economies. Their election slogan "Islam is the answer" did not really produce jobs for bulging population of Egypt and other states.

Everything is precisely as good as it can be. For if it could be better...it would.

[erik]

Btw, one should not underestimate the significance of events like Ebola going global, SARS, etc.

[Michael]

There is a tendency to over-react, which should be guarded against. But the conditions that can topple the global architecture, would usually be expected to contain multiple crises at the same time - overloading the system.

Ebola is currently not highly infectious (nothing like measles), as you have to come in contact with excreted body fluids after the unset of symptoms. It also has a survival rate of about 48%. But should the virus mutate through prolonged infestation in humans, then we could be in for a very nasty scenario.

Islamic State is the latest in the possibility of the 'enemy in our midst' turning on Western society, as some have warned, yet there are considerable elements mitigating against that. One is the hyped up security measures monitoring individuals and communications, another is the mounting resistance from the Islamic community itself in Western countries, and another is likelihood it will be degraded in the Middle East, although it could easily be replaced by the next wave of Islamic extremism appealing to disaffected youth in Western Societies. Yet something could easily trigger another over-reaction from Western countries, playing into the extremists hands. That is a real possibility, yet so far, the responses have been measured, which can also mean ineffectual and too late.

Russia and China's aggressiveness is another risk factor that could collide with other crises, and that is a real danger, yet there also, self-interest remains a mitigating factor. It is still to be seen if that contains the inflammation.

Global Warming brings with it a host of problems, from population movements to wars over water and food.

When you add them all in together, it is understandable one could become pessimistic, and I am certainly that way for the long term - say the end of the century. But I'm yet to feel pessimistic about the next twenty years. Nonetheless, I do feel we walk a tightrope on many fronts, and it only takes another foolish government like that of George W Bush, to tip us.

[PS. 'decimated' actually means to be reduced by a tenth - kill one in every ten.]

[erik]

[PS. 'decimated' actually means to be reduced by a tenth - kill one in every ten.]

If you take the most common combat loss rate as a basis for the assessment, it means that per every killed IS member there are three wounded jihadis. I.e for different time periods, you put out of action 4 out of 10 IS men and create a huge burden on their ability to cope with such a number of wounded fighters. Usually, a military unit is expected to lose its combat power and cohesiveness at the loss of 1/3 of its manpower.

[erik]

Distribution of a virus of the Ebola is accelerated and grows already in a geometrical progression.

https://news.pn/en/incidents/115987

It was declared by the special fight coordinator of the UN against the Ebola David Nabarro. Nabarro also noted that quantity of new cases grows «rather frighteningly» , as now distribution of the Ebola is accelerated.

According to him, isolation infected with a virus is the best way to prevent its transfer.

Nabarro hoped that the outbreak of fever in the Western Africa can be taken under control within three months. He explained that means a situation when the number of new cases starts decreasing.

According to WHO data, at least 4033 persons died of the Ebola, the majority of them - in the Western Africa.

[Michael]

So of all the scenarios, the one that seems to be happening, is that IS is filled with Sunni military commanders from the old Saddam regime, and they have their own agenda of reclaiming control of Iraq for the Sunnis. This is much like Saddam's army, which was rejected by the US, reasserting itself and demonstrating to everyone they have the skills and gear to retake Iraq - and there's not much anyone can do about it.

If this is true, and it may not be so simple, then Iran is not going to be very happy about it, and neither are Saudis.

But if these same commanders are also in Syria, they have a reasonable chance of winning there. But are they in ISIL, or only in Iraqi IS?

Meanwhile those poor buggers in Kobane continue to defy the odds against them.

[erik]

So of all the scenarios, the one that seems to be happening, is that IS is filled with Sunni military commanders from the old Saddam regime, and they have their own agenda of reclaiming control of Iraq for the Sunnis. This is much like Saddam's army, which was rejected by the US, reasserting itself and demonstrating to everyone they have the skills and gear to retake Iraq - and there's not much anyone can do about it.

If this is true, and it may not be so simple, then Iran is not going to be very happy about it, and neither are Saudis.

But if these same commanders are also in Syria, they have a reasonable chance of winning there. But are they in ISIL, or only in Iraqi IS?

Meanwhile those poor buggers in Kobane continue to defy the odds against them.

Half of Kobani is gone. The rest will follow.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Oct-14/273984-isis-fights-way-into-center-of-ain-al-arab-despite-airstrikes.ashx#axzz3G58FDNsA

[erik]

Ebola - could rise to 10,000 new cases a week by December.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/up-to-10-000-new-ebola-cases-could-occur-each-week-says-who-1413293490

[Michael]

That is interesting the survival rate has been revised down from 48% to 30%.

Also interesting is that the nurse who contracted the disease in Texas said she followed all the rules. So although this disease is not highly contagious in comparison to air-borne diseases, it is nonetheless very volatile, and killing at an alarming rate.

[Nichi]

That is interesting the survival rate has been revised down from 48% to 30%.

Also interesting is that the nurse who contracted the disease in Texas said she followed all the rules. So although this disease is not highly contagious in comparison to air-borne diseases, it is nonetheless very volatile, and killing at an alarming rate.

This one is more insidious than "air-borne". This can be passed through "body fluids", but not in the same way that HIV is passed. HIV is easy: don't share drug-needles, don't get tainted blood transfusions, don't have unprotected sex.

Ebola.... holy shit. Surfaces. It will come to light that it isn't just about touching the person - it will also be about what the person has touched. IOW, an infected person touches a surface which is then touched by others. This could be furniture, clothing, doorknobs, and, most importantly -- money. Credit cards, money. Passports and other id-checking. Even wearing latex gloves constantly is no guarantee, because you would have to keep changing them all the day long that you are in a strange/public setting. And you should learn the proper way of taking them off.

Then, god forbid, were you to get infected, you have to go in quarantine and a hasmet team has to come to your house and clean everything. It's a nightmare.

Hand sanitizer, frequent washing of hands using universal precautions (which means don't touch the faucet or the soap-dispenser with your hands, among many other things) are some of the ways of prevention, but it has not been publicized. Public toilets: yes, they're a problem! I'm most concerned about how we aren't being given any tips. All the press on it is of the minimizing ilk. It's as if they know, it's going to be horrendous and we might as well not panic. Or even, someone somewhere doesn't mind downsizing the herd.

[Nichi]

As for the Texas nurse, it was stated initially that she "breached protocol", but they did not share how she breached protocol. I suspect it all goes back to the "surfaces". There are so many ways that we touch things in the course of a day, to which we give no thought.

Also, a German healthcare worker contracted it and died rather rapidly.