Author Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!  (Read 31092 times)

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2130 on: September 14, 2015, 01:53:27 PM »
I'd reckon the refugee issue boils down to sharing welfare.

Refugees run to have a better life in rich society. Rich society remains benevolent as long as the percentages of aliens/foreigners in it stay low and effects negligible.

Beyond a certain threshold - say 20-25% of poor people from a very different culture - these rich and human rights-orientated Western societies will put on very different faces.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2131 on: September 14, 2015, 02:33:44 PM »
Yes and no. Yes, it does make a difference how many are involved, and how wealthy the country is. If the country is not wealthy, the refugees can simply cross the boarder and set up tents, then they have to fend for themselves or get help from international charities. If the country is wealthy, there are standards that must be applied, and this initially cost a lot of money. Later on, it has been assessed that immigrants like these add significantly to the wealth of the host nation, but that is conditioned by the skill level of the immigrants and the cultural compatibility.

No, because not all refugees are running for a better life in a wealthy country. Many run to have a better life, usually young men leaving China or Africa. But there are also vast numbers of refugees who do not want to leave their home country - they like their own country and culture. It is war they typically are running from. In previous cases, countries have been able to offer temporary sanctuary, after which they return. This happened with the Bosnian crisis. But the current Syrian conflict is unlikely to end for a very long time. Temporary sanctuary is not really an option.

UAE doesn't want to take any in, because they are already only 5% of their own population. The level of absorption rate is a good criteria, so long as the intake can be controlled. Once it can't be controlled, the whole pack of cards is thrown in the air. I see now Germany has closed its boarders.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2015, 11:18:42 PM by Michael »

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2132 on: September 15, 2015, 11:19:32 PM »
Fires in California - looks very bad. Is anyone talking of Climate Change?

Jahn

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2133 on: September 17, 2015, 03:53:05 AM »
Estonia tries to take in numbers that are manageable and sustainable. 200-300 people would be such a number.

A quite low number in my humble opinion.
This from a country that have a history of the refugee problematics. But who really cares any more.
The ladies from these refugee areas are very sweet though.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2134 on: September 19, 2015, 08:45:26 PM »
Fires in California - looks very bad. Is anyone talking of Climate Change?

With all these wars and mass migrations it is all business as usual: CO2 output is not only not shrinking, but accelerating. Blowing stuff up usually means fires and other nasty things.



http://co2now.org/

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2135 on: September 19, 2015, 08:51:12 PM »
I'm a bit confused by the refugee situation in the EU. If this was a single nation, there would have been a central response and action from the government. It appears that the EU central government is happy to sit around talking of financial matters, but with Syrian refugees, it either has no voice or no power.

I wonder how these refugees are being fed and cared for medically - is it all up to NGOs?

No individual country can solve this crisis, and Hungary is obviously playing tough. Why has this been allowed to progress for so long without a united solution within the EU? These people require temporary sanctuary, of some kind, while long term solutions are resolved.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2136 on: September 19, 2015, 10:59:49 PM »
I'm a bit confused by the refugee situation in the EU. If this was a single nation, there would have been a central response and action from the government. It appears that the EU central government is happy to sit around talking of financial matters, but with Syrian refugees, it either has no voice or no power.

I wonder how these refugees are being fed and cared for medically - is it all up to NGOs?

No individual country can solve this crisis, and Hungary is obviously playing tough. Why has this been allowed to progress for so long without a united solution within the EU? These people require temporary sanctuary, of some kind, while long term solutions are resolved.

Countries at the receiving end are dealing with the influx as they can. Hungarians are obviously under enormous pressure so they try to block the entrance to their country. Some countries are cooperating: Slovenia stopped train traffic to Croatia to slow the flow down. NGOs, government agencies and volunteers are in action to keep these people fed.

Yet...it seems increasingly certain that of the whole mass Syrians constitute about 10%. The others are the ones who try to free ride into welfare societies of the EU. They are Albanians, Turks, Iraqis, etc.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2137 on: September 19, 2015, 11:28:58 PM »
The figures I've seen from Eurostat, only covering 2nd Qtr to June this year, show Syria at 21% of refugees applying for asylum status.

But this '1 in 5' stat obscures the figures showing at least 45% coming from war torn countries, and most likely much more, as we don't know what makes up the 'Other' countries at 27%. Most likely we are dealing with over 50% refugees from homelands destroyed by war.

But we don't know what the recent figures are for the last two and a half months, and anyway, it still leaves a question of what is to be done with them all. The bulk are coming from Turkey I assume. That would be the place to try and contain the flow, by funding better conditions in the camps there.

But I'm not being paid to solve this, and my knowledge of the full situation is slim. Enough to know though, that whatever the approach, it's not working.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2138 on: September 19, 2015, 11:50:18 PM »
The figures I've seen from Eurostat, only covering 2nd Qtr to June this year, show Syria at 21% of refugees applying for asylum status.

But this '1 in 5' stat obscures the figures showing at least 45% coming from war torn countries, and most likely much more, as we don't know what makes up the 'Other' countries at 27%. Most likely we are dealing with over 50% refugees from homelands destroyed by war.

But we don't know what the recent figures are for the last two and a half months, and anyway, it still leaves a question of what is to be done with them all. The bulk are coming from Turkey I assume. That would be the place to try and contain the flow, by funding better conditions in the camps there.

But I'm not being paid to solve this, and my knowledge of the full situation is slim. Enough to know though, that whatever the approach, it's not working.

In April-June 2015 out of 213,000 refugees arriving in EU, 44,000 were Syrians. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3240010/Number-refugees-arriving-Europe-soars-85-year-just-one-five-war-torn-Syria.html

Imagine for a moment that al-Assad has fallen. Will all these bearded men lay down their guns? Stop and turn to building a state in Syria? (What kind of a state, actually?)

I am afraid the fall of al-Assad would be the beginning of something on a much bigger scale.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2139 on: September 20, 2015, 08:20:41 AM »
Yes, I agree. Unfortunately, these refugees are not going home anytime soon.

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2140 on: October 02, 2015, 10:18:11 PM »
Syria: I have to say, this is becoming more like Pandora's Box every day. The escalation from tin-pot, extreme Middle Eastern brutality and inhumanity punch-up between no-bodies, into an international super-power tinder-box of high-explosives, has happened in a matter of months.

The famous "West" has been reluctant to put 'boots-on-the-ground' in the Levant and Iraq. The reason to my mind is oil - the USA has enough thank you very much, and the rest of you can get stuffed. Why should the American people be willing to sacrifice their youth to some Islamic internecine war of obscene atrocity? There is no will within the US to commit, when no one liked them for what they did previously anyway. I think they have a good reason to tell the impossibly intransigent Sunni-Shia mob to go kill themselves, if they can't stop a thousands year old feud.

But then the Americans, who are the only ones who have the resources to make any difference, begin to wonder if perhaps there are other reasons to take action in the M-E. But what other reasons are these?

Meanwhile, Russia, apparently sees a direct self-interest in the fact that Syria has allowed Russia to have a navy port. Now this is in Syria, and yet somehow, it also applies to something in the Dead Sea (of Jason fame), which I can't get straight. Anyway, Russia sees very distinct self-interest in supporting Assad in Syria. So they send in their 'boots' and all the rest.

Not to be outdone, Iran also decides to send in its 'boots' and no doubt it's famous general (although his name hasn't been mentioned yet).

Meanwhile, US (and Australia for God's sake!) has upped it's operations in bombing IS in Syria, after finally pulling Turkey on board.

Then Russia bombs the US supported anti-Assad forces. And Iran is doing something - what we don't yet know.

Next we have Norway, along with 'unnamed' other Russian impacted EU nations, feel it necessary to boost their military capability in response to a generally perceived hyper-activity by Russia in the North Sea as well as Ukraine.

So, now we have the US fighting on the same side as Russia and Iran in Syria, except they are not talking nor coordinating, and the likelyhood of killing each other very high. This is the mad hatters tea party in hell. Meanwhile let's not leave out the huge military and interventionist expense by the deficit-ridden Saudi Arabia, who has just murdered hundreds of Harjj pilgrims (Jesus, you'd of thought they could at least manage their one international religious event with all their money).

I'm godsmacked by the insane complexity of such a horrendous personal-suffering situation.

Now they tell us that the refugees invading Europe from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria (read George Bush's children) are about to multiply exponentially (blowback?). Considering the Taliban have begun their conventional warfare reclaiming of Afghanistan, and the Afghan government is about to prove itself completely incompetent.

Next China is in decline, which has triggered the biggest fall in resources stocks across the globe for a decade.

But wait, the governor of the Bank of England has just reported that the world economy is facing the biggest threat to financial stability for a very, very long time. Why? It's something we often don't realise, but there is a tendency to wonder why governments of the world states are so beholding to fossil fuel energy corporations. Think one reason: vast, unbelievable quantities of wealth. Climate Change, the darling of science and greenies, the dawning realisation of nation states that this threat is so real and devastating, that indeed we all have to shift to Renewables, has left one critical fact out of the equation: this will upturn the wealth structure of the globe.

Climate Change policies being unavoidably enforced on all governments, means that three quarters of global fossil fuel resources will have to be left in the ground. That represents a vast equity devaluation, impacting international finance in a way very few have anticipated. Insurance companies are in the front line. If we wait, and put off the transition, the eventual and unavoidable consequences on global wealth hierarchies will push the world economy over the cliff in a way that will make the GFC look like kindergartner. But even if action is taken sooner, the consequences are still devastating and unpredictable.

We live in exciting times...

Offline Michael

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2141 on: October 24, 2015, 10:27:50 PM »
Not to be outdone, Iran also decides to send in its 'boots' and no doubt it's famous general (although his name hasn't been mentioned yet).

Well, his name has finally been mentioned in dispatches: Major-General Qasim Suleimani.
Yes, he is in there, and yes he is organising, but more - he is running the whole show, Russians and all!

Assad was doing well for a while, then his forces collapsed and things were looking dire. Now we have Iraqi Shia Militants, Iranian forces, Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, Shia local groups and Russian air power, as well as limited ground assistance - and it's all directed by you know whom: Major-General Qasim Suleimani. Syria, it has been explained, will have a 'minor role'. Suleimani battle against the radical Sunnis, drawing in Moscow, Tehran, Baghdad and Damascus.

If this man did not belong to the evil empire of Iran, he would be globally renown as a famous hero and leader.

He went to Moscow in August and met with Putin - the result is what you see.

And the US with it's allies? One wonders at the ineffectual twiddling of Western countries in this fight - they are out of their depth, and methinks, their reluctance to get involved too much is a wise approach. Recently we had US troops on the ground in freeing some IS prisoners about to be murdered. With the help of the Kurds, because there were Kurds in the prisoners...? No there weren't. What was the game? We don't yet know, but there does appear to be concern that the US is losing control in this area, and Iran is pulling all the strings.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2142 on: October 25, 2015, 08:28:03 PM »
Nice topic, eh? A mess beyond anything one could rationally understand and most importantly - with near-infinite number of spoilers. No peace is possible. No agreement is possible. Israelis say that they merely count bodies on all sides and try to figure out whether and when IS would get to their borders.

We have witnessed a month of Russian airstrikes and it has become clear how utterly ridiculous endeavour that is. Russians are about 20-25 years behind the US/West and bombard God knows what. Precision strikes exist only in their minds. Their reading of the situation is...to put it mildy...that of morons. Just look at the map their General Staff showed last week: https://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/26001/94845085.131/0_140082_4067e5d2_orig
Green is Jabhat al-Nusra, Blue is Islamic State. There are no other factions according to Russian leadership. Pathetic and ridiculous.

So Russians are hitting anyone and claim that these people are Islamic State. Apparently, Jabhat al-Nusra are also Islamic State in their mind.

At the same time, Russians have supplied extremely lethal weapons to al-Assad troops. They include thermobaric multiple-launch rocket systems.
Take a look:
https://youtu.be/3SrKZd5tpNo

Saudis supply the other side with hundreds and hundreds of US-made TOW anti-tank missiles. Within the last 2-3 weeks  rebels have decimated government's armoured forces. Literally decimated. An example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_kPl4e7db4

Thus, it looks like Russians threw their prestige and authority on the scales and are gradually sinking into a quagmire called Middle East. In the process, about 70,000 more people have fled Syria and aim for Europe. It may be that Turks could shoot down a flying Russian idiot and then we might face a NATO-Russian standoff.

It all looks like a pile of crap. Putin is like Hitler. He got stuck in Ukraine and decided to start a new war. Quite like Hitler did after conquering France.


erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2143 on: November 06, 2015, 04:35:14 AM »
Things are getting better and better.
After Russians got involved, 120,000 more people have fled Syria.
In fact, ISIS has been advancing and it has taken several cities it failed to take previously.
Apparently, Russians intend to build 4 military bases in Syria and quadruple the number of sorties they fly daily.
US, Turkey and Saudis have decided to supply more arms and ammunition to Syrian rebels to hold Russians and their allies (Iranians, Iraqis, Syrians) back.
US is deploying figther planes to Turkey to ward off Russians.
It may be that first Russians have been killed in Syria already.

This is all not to mention that passenger plane that crashed on Sinai.

erik

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Re: WE'RE STUFFED!!!
« Reply #2144 on: November 06, 2015, 04:38:06 AM »
A quite low number in my humble opinion.
This from a country that have a history of the refugee problematics. But who really cares any more.
The ladies from these refugee areas are very sweet though.

There will be no upper limit to the number of these refugees. None.
Everyone runs: Syrians, Iraqis, there are hundreds of thousands of Africans piling up on the Mediterranean coast, etc.
NOBODY will be able to absorb these masses.

 

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