Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[Nick]

Don't know if you guys already posted this one:



"Imagine a world where many of your daily activities were constantly monitored and evaluated: what you buy at the shops and online; where you are at any given time; who your friends are and how you interact with them; how many hours you spend watching content or playing video games; and what bills and taxes you pay (or not). It's not hard to picture, because most of that already happens, thanks to all those data-collecting behemoths like Google, Facebook and Instagram or health-tracking apps such as Fitbit. But now imagine a system where all these behaviours are rated as either positive or negative and distilled into a single number, according to rules set by the government. That would create your Citizen Score and it would tell everyone whether or not you were trustworthy. Plus, your rating would be publicly ranked against that of the entire population and used to determine your eligibility for a mortgage or a job, where your children can go to school - or even just your chances of getting a date.

A futuristic vision of Big Brother out of control? No, it's already getting underway in China, where the government is developing the Social Credit System (SCS) to rate the trustworthiness of its 1.3 billion citizens. The Chinese government is pitching the system as a desirable way to measure and enhance "trust" nationwide and to build a culture of "sincerity"."

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/chinese-government-social-credit-score-privacy-invasion

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Reminds me of the the Black Mirror episode in Season 3 called Nosedive.
Build a culture of "sincerity".... yeah, right...

[Michael]

Yes, there you go... we are on a role as they say.

[erik]

If true, we might be approaching a game-changing moment.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/20/exclusive-us-making-plans-bloody-nose-military-attack-north/
http://uk.businessinsider.com/us-reportedly-wants-bloody-nose-strike-against-north-korea-2017-12
America is drawing up plans for a “bloody nose” military attack on North Korea to stop its nuclear weapons programme, The Telegraph understands.

The White House has “dramatically” stepped up preparation for a military solution in recent months amid fears diplomacy is not working, well-placed sources said.

One option is destroying a launch site before it is used by the regime for a new missile test. Stockpiles of weapons could also be targeted.

 The hope is that military force would show Kim Jong-un that America is “serious” about stopping further nuclear development and trigger negotiations.

[Michael]

Interesting development as Turkey initiates ground movement against the Syrian Kurds in Afrin. Now, we have here a case of superior armaments against battle hardened troops. Then there is the wider geo-political drama, about the carve-up of Syria and the fact that ISIS is still not completely defeated, so the US retains the need for Kurdish assistance while Turkey has largely been a hindrance in the whole Syrian affair. Russia is still in there also.

But this is the moment the Kurds have been waiting for - I wager anything they knew it was coming and have prepared. they desperately need to carve out a Kurdish region as much as Turkey is desperate to stop that.

Somehow, I think the Turks may very well get a shock in this event. There are about 10,000 Kurdish soldiers in Afrin, along with a very large civilian population, most likely pro-Kurdish.

[erik]

As the night fell, Kurds counterattacked and took the hill back. Arabs retreated after a symbolic resistance.
It is likely, that Turks will launch another artillery barrage and re-take the hill tomorrow.
It was swinging back and forth also during their previous incursion.

[Michael]

The Kurds really are friendless in this situation, possibly except for their SDF coalition, although I find it hard to think the Sunni tribes will be much interested in a West Kurdistan. And the Iraqi Kurds are also seriously under pressure. So they will be out-gunned and betrayed by the US, nonetheless, this whole area of the Middle East is extremely volatile. I expect the Kurds always knew US assistance came at a price of a deal with Turkey, so I'd be surprised if they haven't prepared for this situation.

[Michael]

The Kurds are saying they have been betrayed more by Russia than the US, but it appears no significant, or insignificant, state is willing to speak up for the Kurds in Syria.

[erik]

It looks that Syria has been carved up and Turks have come to claim their bit, but there is no ironclad proof, yet.

The US threatened to cut any support to Kurdish YPG if any reinforcements are sent to Afrin (confirmed).
Some sources claim that the US actually stopped Kurdish reinforcements that were moving from Cizire and Kobane to Afrin (unconfirmed).

Simultaneously, there are claims that Russian and Syrian forces are pulling back from villages west of Manbij (unconfirmed).

[Michael]

I'm reading mixed reports about all this. Who is supporting or not supporting who etc. and for all kinds of different reasons.

[Michael]

This Turkey-Kurd battle is likely to trigger much larger problems.

Firstly, the Kurds may well prove to be intrangent opponents - battle hardened, highly experienced and motivated: this fight could well go their way, and if not, at least it could drag on for enough time to activate the Kurds in Turkey and Iraq (and possibly in Iran). The effect of that could cause problems for Erdoğan not only within Turkey but in the Middle East Region. But also, Turkey's proxy forces are not that highly motivated, and the same could be said for Turkey's own army. And now the Arab tribes are claiming to stand with the Kurds

Secondly, it has revealed that the 'west' has no actual plan for Syria, so in the vacuum, Russia is establishing itself strongly - in alliance with Turkey and Assad. This is not in the west's interest, but it seems Putin has grabbed the cookies before anyone could stop him. I have yet to hear what Iran's stake in the pie is, as well as Saudi Arabia.

Thirdly, it has revealed a severe split in Nato, with Turkey siding more with Russia than the US and Nato.

Fourthly, we have to factor in the Trump - the wild card, which could throw a huge spanner in the works.

Lastly, we now see the EU and the US moving to stop Erdoğan's aspirations, because the stability of Syria as a whole is threatened by Turkey's invasions. Even Russia has an interest for a stable Syria under Assad, and for that they need the Kurdish north as part of the federation.

[erik]

This Turkey-Kurd battle is likely to trigger much larger problems.

Firstly, the Kurds may well prove to be intrangent opponents - battle hardened, highly experienced and motivated: this fight could well go their way, and if not, at least it could drag on for enough time to activate the Kurds in Turkey and Iraq (and possibly in Iran). The effect of that could cause problems for Erdoğan not only within Turkey but in the Middle East Region. But also, Turkey's proxy forces are not that highly motivated, and the same could be said for Turkey's own army. And now the Arab tribes are claiming to stand with the Kurds

Secondly, it has revealed that the 'west' has no actual plan for Syria, so in the vacuum, Russia is establishing itself strongly - in alliance with Turkey and Assad. This is not in the west's interest, but it seems Putin has grabbed the cookies before anyone could stop him. I have yet to hear what Iran's stake in the pie is, as well as Saudi Arabia.

Thirdly, it has revealed a severe split in Nato, with Turkey siding more with Russia than the US and Nato.

Fourthly, we have to factor in the Trump - the wild card, which could throw a huge spanner in the works.

Lastly, we now see the EU and the US moving to stop Erdoğan's aspirations, because the stability of Syria as a whole is threatened by Turkey's invasions. Even Russia has an interest for a stable Syria under Assad, and for that they need the Kurdish north as part of the federation.

Reasonable points. Some  additional arguments may be:

1) Kurds have never been united nor acted as a united front. Turkish onslaught on PKK-related YPG may not trigger actions of more moderate Kurds. Turkish Army has gone through purges and repressions and it will scream and cry (i.e. lack motivation), but take every single hilltop outlined by Erdogan. Regardless. Arab militias, with the exception of those with more Islamist orientation, are unlikely to go into life-and-death fight  for Kurds in that conflict. Hardcore Islamists, on the other hand, hate the guts of Kurds.

2) Russia has a strong position, indeed. Its only problem is to find a reasonable compromise with Arab states, Iran and the US. Particular problem may be Iran that has its own regional aspirations and objectives (Shia crescent Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon) and challenges with the US.

[erik]

Things have heated up in Syria.

1) On Feb 7-8th, US aircraft and helicopter gunships decimated apparently 1-2 units of Russian mercenaries near Deir-ez-Zor. There are claims that hundreds of Russians were killed. There are some suggestions that the US commanders knew exactly whom they were hitting. I'd say it is a first time since the Afghanistan war (1979-1989) when Americans and Russians have shot at and killed each other.

2) On Feb 9-10th, Syrians managed (almost by an accident) to hit and bring down an Israeli warplane. Israelis retaliated on Feb 10-11 by destroying 50% of Syria's air defences and smashing in the process a number of Iranian objects/bases in Syria.

3) Meanwhile, on Feb 8th, the Olympic Games began and it may be yet another ominous coincidence: in 2008 and 2014 Russians attacked Georgia and Ukraine, respectively.

[Michael]

Well, I have been keeping an eye on things there, and it looks to me like the turkey-kurd problem is but the least of the problems. The place is disintegrating into a whooping great cesspit of chaos.

[erik]

Both, Americans and Russians, try to keep a lid on what happened in Syria.

The US Secretary of Defense Mattis said that they asked Russians before the strikes regarding possible Russian presence in the area (formality really, as Kurds were in constant battle contact with advancing Russians) and received a negative answer. Then they instantly pulled a trigger.

Russians keep claiming that no Russians died in the strike, but it seems that no less than THREE military hospitals have been filled to the maximum with wounded military personnel and mercenaries. The unofficial claims of body count persistently mention hundreds of killed and wounded.

Apparently, Pentagon has released two videos of air strikes that show that Russians in the target area had no chance, really - after their presence was denied.

This incident may have some unexpected consequences with regard to Russia's internal developments. Russia has been denying the presence of its military in Ukraine since 2014, but also hundreds of official military and thousands of mercenaries have been killed. But it is grudgingly accepted as Russia fights for "Slavic world against neonazis", etc. The story is complete bullocks, but it plays on the sense of patriotism.

In Syria, the Russian leadership sort of blatantly disregarded the lives of Russians when threatened and even asked before the strikes by the perceived arch enemy - the US - and denies the killed and wounded people ever existed. That is a mortal insult to the Russian sense of patriotism. Many former military, mercenaries, conservatives etc. expect either exacting a bloody revenge on the US or some changes inside Kremlin.

[Michael]

Yes, I was wondering how the Russian public was going to react to this. But even the Russian government so far hasn't made too much of a noise. There must be some sense of guilt on the Russian side.