Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[erik]

Info on Russian casualties is leaking:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-casualtie/russian-toll-in-syria-battle-was-300-killed-and-wounded-sources-idUSKCN1FZ2DZ?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5a85cf5304d3012f09f8c076&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

[erik]

Last Saturday brought us yet another missile strike at Syria. Donald promised - Donald delivered.
Fortunately, Mattis was able to dissuade Donald from striking Russian and Iranian bases in Syria.
Russians warned that if US struck Damascus, it would be "the last thing they did in this world".
US delivered over 70 missiles precisely into the vicinity of Damascus. Russian air defence did nothing.
Now Russians claim that Syrians were able to shoot down some missiles, US says none were shot down.

Where do we stand now?

It was for the first in many years when US and Russia (biggest nuclear powers on this planet) traded direct military threats.
US and allies called Russia's bluff and Russia caved in.
However, Russia's president is a vengeful one and it is quite certain that this is not the end of it.
We will hear more from Russia.
Today, the US and UK claimed that Russia tried to attack/hack the very infrastructure of the Internet.
The US keeps a few hundred Tomahawk cruise missiles concentrated around Syria - in case a decision is made on follow-on strikes.

Meanwhile, the Gulf Stream current is at its weakest in 1,600 years, studies show: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/11/critical-gulf-stream-current-weakest-for-1600-years-research-finds

Reporting from Planet Earth
AD 2018.

[Michael]

I hear that the Russian economy is also at its weakest for a long time. A previous Russian finance minister resigned in disgust against Putin spending the last big inflow of national funds on armaments instead of economic recovery. With an GDP less than that of Texas, Putin is desperate to distract the Russian population with anything that inflames national pride, or his leadership will come crashing down with the economy.

[erik]

I hear that the Russian economy is also at its weakest for a long time. A previous Russian finance minister resigned in disgust against Putin spending the last big inflow of national funds on armaments instead of economic recovery. With an GDP less than that of Texas, Putin is desperate to distract the Russian population with anything that inflames national pride, or his leadership will come crashing down with the economy.

Everything you say about Russia's economy is right.
However, Putin's rule is hardly threatened by anything. "Reality" is a concept that is shaped by media and inside Russia it is already extremely similar to that of Orwell's "1984". You simply would not find anybody willing to challenge the statement that 70 American missiles were shot down. Epic failures have little to no effect on Putin's popularity and people are afraid of sweeping changes in their society due to their experiences (and media messaging on) the attempt to democratise their country in the beginning of 1990s.

I see Russia going down the road of North Korea. At least for the time being.

PS The US struck a target that was 8 km/5 miles from Syria's presidential palace.

[Michael]

Just prior to the great and disasterous invasion of Afghanistan by the army of the British East India Company, one of the reasons for the venture was the siege of Herat by the Persians. When the Hero of Herat, the British spy, Lieutenant Eldred Pottinger made himself known to the Wazir, and conducted a sterling defence of what was a ferocious attack by the Persians, although heralded by the British back in India, he was arrested by the Wazir and nearly killed. So much for thanks from British help!

To help understand this current push from the cohort of advisors to Trump, 'to teach the Iranian's a lesson' approach, and enable/encourage the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow their dictatorial leaders, it is instrumental to see what the Wazir of Herat wrote to the Persians after they called of their siege:
"I swear to God that I prefer the fury of the Shah to the kindness of a million of the English."

Again and again, the story of western domination of other nations always fails to realise that people resent foreigners dictating to them, even if it be in their own best interest. I suspect this move by Trump will prove the opposite of dividing Iran.

[erik]

There we are:
- Iranians launched some 20 missiles at Israel tonight. Israeli missile defence system shot them down.
- Israel struck back at 20-30 Iranian locations in Syria.

[Michael]

I've been aware that Israel has an obsession with Iran as the devious and aggressive primary current enemy, creeping closer to them. Much of this obsession is behind Trump's actions. I think their concerns are not without substance, but nonetheless it plays well on Israel's right wing national political landscape, that they have to be nasty towards everyone else or they will murdered in their beds. Conveniently forgetting if they are murdered it's because they are nasty - the standard right wing flaw. Mind you, it's not exactly without some element of truth, just overblown for political purposes. It is always the old 'firm adult' that has no place in modern democratic politics.

I suspect Israel has little to worry about just now - they far out-gun any opposition. But yes, we are sure to see some firies in the sky before this dies down.

And also, let's not forget, this is a battle between Israel and Suleimani - never underestimate that wily old soldier.

[erik]

Good points! I would add that because Israel outguns Iran, it wants and is ready to smash any attempt of Iran to grow stronger in its early stages.

[Michael]

Pretty soon, we will see the arrival of a global response. This will cut across national politics.

[erik]

That would be wonderful!
However...I imagine it would be a massive emotional push, but it remains to be seen whether the outraged people who press politicians for change would be willing to change their own habits and ways and cut back their consumption of nature and its resources.

It would be an awesome turning point in the history of our species if our co-travellers would look accusingly not only at the Donalds and Vladimirs and Jis of this world, but also at themselves.

[Michael]

It would be an awesome turning point in the history of our species if our co-travellers would look accusingly not only at the Donalds and Vladimirs and Jis of this world, but also at themselves.

Exactly

[Michael]

Juhani, have you got any clarity about what is happening now in Syria - the Kurd's under attack and apparently being backed by Turkey. What is going on, and what are the implications?

[erik]

As of today, September 11th  situation is as follows:
1) Kurds/SDF have, with support of the US-led coalition,  launched an offensive on the last |S|S stronghold in Euphrates Valley (town of Hajin - near the border with Iraq)
2) Russians and Syrians launched last week an air campaign to either (1) bomb rebels into submission in their last stronghold (Idlib province) or (2) to soften the defences for a ground offensive.
3) Turkish, Russian and Iranian presidents held a meeting to find an agreement on Syria, but it seems that they failed to find a compromise. While the meeting was held, Russians halted bombardment, but then resumed.
4) Turks have brought in reinforcements into Idlib (they have a number of observation posts and checkpoints on the perimeter of Idlib province). Whether Turks will or will not resist Russian-Syrian offensive, remains unclear.

So far, 35,000 Syrians have left their homes and try to flee from Idlib. The number of refugees may well exceed a million if Syrians and Russians decide sweep the whole Idlib province.

In essence, we are seeing a final act of Syrian civil war - if Russians and Syrians seize Idlib, there will be no rebel areas left and the uprising that began in 2011 will have been quelled.

What happens to Kurds, is anybody's guess, but so far the US has not clearly stated that it will abandon them. I'd speculate Kurds and their independence aspirations may be used as a bargaining chip to press Turks to abandon procurement of Russian missiles and behave as a NATO member. This would fit Tump's way of conducting foreign policy.

[erik]

On the background of these developments, Russia and the US keep trading warnings and threats:

https://www.news.com.au/world/russia-threatens-to-attack-us-troops-supporting-syrian-rebels/news-story/318d95f35e434806723bc5a87903e42b
http://uk.businessinsider.com/f-35-aircraft-carrier-middle-east-after-russia-threatens-us-forces-syria-2018-9

[Michael]

So if I get this straight, we have Assad and Putin on one side, and Turkey, Kurds and the US on the other. Is there anyone else in this mix - is it only Kurds in this last independent province? Appears that Turkey, Kurds and US are a very odd alliance.

But if the anti Assad-Russian forces are to be countered, some kind of international recognition of this province would be required. Is there any move for that?