Topic: WE'RE STUFFED!!!

[Jahn]

There will be no upper limit to the number of these refugees. None.
Everyone runs: Syrians, Iraqis, there are hundreds of thousands of Africans piling up on the Mediterranean coast, etc.
NOBODY will be able to absorb these masses.

True, and now even Sweden has reached the limit. We get about 5000 refugees per week, since early autumn, and the situation is starting to get out of control, there is simply no room for more. So our government is about to seek funding from EU to at least have some financial backup for the situation.

in my mind I think that Finland and the Baltic states could open up more ... for the greatest immigrant movement in history.

[Michael]

There will be no upper limit to the number of these refugees. None.
Everyone runs: Syrians, Iraqis, there are hundreds of thousands of Africans piling up on the Mediterranean coast, etc.
NOBODY will be able to absorb these masses.

It is a tough situation, for everyone. I can't think of an answer, except that the wars stop. And despite all kinds of hopeful signs, it just keeps getting worse. I now hear that the Saudis, the US, and Iran are going to talk... just can't see that working.

[erik]

It is a tough situation, for everyone. I can't think of an answer, except that the wars stop. And despite all kinds of hopeful signs, it just keeps getting worse. I now hear that the Saudis, the US, and Iran are going to talk... just can't see that working.

It's probably US initiative, but it is 100% hopeless. The reason is simple: A dominating majority of rebels fighting in Syria are Islamists. Roughly 50% of them (not even considering ISIS) are radicals who do not pay much attention to what the US says. Their suppliers - Saudis, Turks, Qataris - do, and hence, the talks. However, it is merely a formality.

Moreover, there is ISIS that earns US $50 million a month, and they do not give a crap about any peace talks.

The US lost its authority among Syrian rebels completely after Obama decided to not take action after al-Assad gassed 1,000 people in Damascus. Before that Obama had a "clever" idea of delegating the issue of Syrian civil war to Turks and Qataris who supported conservative Muslim Brotherhood from the outset. The result of this is obvious - there are no moderate (secular) opposition groups fighting al-Assad.

Obama is useless in military-strategic affairs. Unfortunately. He's incapable of proactive approach and seizing initiative. Largely thanks to his early pullout from Iraq and Afghanistan we have now the ISIS - the most sincere, heartfelt dream of Osama bin Laden manifested in physical world. Imagine that - a bunch of radicals (there were 3,000 men in al-Qaeda altogether) attacked WTC, triggered a decade-long campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, drove the US and its allies to exhaustion, and established a caliphate. Whoa!

[erik]

In my mind I think that Finland and the Baltic states could open up more ... for the greatest immigrant movement in history.

To become overloaded like Sweden?
We could rather take in Ukrainians as our cultures differ much less.

[Jahn]

To become overloaded like Sweden?
We could rather take in Ukrainians as our cultures differ much less.

Well it was a bit of a teaser regarding the Baltic states. But Finland is doing poor, all along the decades.

Yes, it is true that Sweden has definitely reached a limit of how many people we can handle with a decent level of social arrangement. New suggestions has come from the most unexpected political heights. Last week there were 10 000 immigrants recorded and we are now about to pull the brakes.

[erik]

These are the times to come. Anybody still enthusiastic about taking in thousands of refugees from war zones? (rhetorical question)


Paris Terror Attacks Leave 60 Dead, 100 Hostages. The worst attack in the history of the French capital is underway.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/11/13/20-killed-in-multiple-paris-attacks.html

A coordinated assault by multiple tefforists is underway in Paris.

Police say the gunmen—as many as six—were armed with Kalashnikovs and grenades and killed at least 60 people so far, according to BFMTV.

Some 100 people are believed to be held hostage in the Bataclan theater after a performance by American rock band Eagles of Death Metal.

French RAID police—its SWAT—have been deployed to the venue.

According to the French daily Liberation, a witness to the Bataclan shooting heard one of the shooters shout “Allahu Akhbar.” French media has discussed the possible use of a gas cylinder with nails as the explosive device, as were used in the 1995 Islamist terror attacks in the Paris metro.

The office of satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, where al Qaeda affiliates Said and Cherif Kouachi killed 12 and left 11 wounded last January, is a seven-minute walk from the Bataclan.

Eyewitnesses have described bodies lying dead in the street in what U.S. officials are already suggesting is another coordinated series of tefforist attacks—the worst in the French capital since the Hebdo shooting, which was followed a day later by an ISIS-inspired shooting at the Hypercasher kosher marketplace on the outskirts of Paris.

The first known attack was on the Petit Cambodge restaurant in Paris's 10th arrondissement.

Almost simultaenously, reports of explosions came from the Stade de France, just north of Paris, where France and Germany were playing in a soccer match. President François Hollande was in attendance and safely evacuated. At least three people were reportedly killed and 80,000 evacuated.

All the gunman are reportedly on the loose. It is not known who they are or what tefforist group, if any, they are associated with.

[Firestarter]

Its like up to 153 dead right now last I checked. Hate this shit. I hope the US bands with France and goes over to kick some ass. I hate war. But shit enough already.

[Michael]

A few things come to mind.

1. The refugees are escaping exactly this kind of thing, so it is not they per se who inflict this carnage. But how can anyone know who is who amongst the refugees, and it's the long term immigrants into France who have usually been the actors in these assaults. There is going to be much talk in Europe about generosity towards Muslim immigrants and refugees - popular opinion will force governments to shut down their boarders.

2. The big issue now, is how will the 'West' respond? Is this massive assault sufficient to launch a full scale coalition invasion into IS territory? Personally, I think if they don't do it now, they'll have to later.

3. How will Saudi Arabia and Iran respond? And is a combined campaign including Sunni, Shia, Russia, French, British and American forces at all possible? Sounds like our worst nightmare.

[erik]

There's no ass to kick with armed forces except that of ISIS in Syria and Iraq. But the perpetrators are already among European populations.
Moreover, it is unclear who and how will govern ISIS territories after the ISIS will be destroyed? It looks like erosion of states (like it happened to Somalia) is a fact of life in some areas.

I'd say French will go into overdrive in manhandling their Muslim population. They pushed them around ferociously after 9/11 and I'd guess they'd come up with something akin very much to Guantanamo.

Saudis and other Gulf states are more interested in pushing back Iran than fighting ISIS. In fact, ISIS is a blunt weapon to use against Iran and shiites.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/08/w...es-air-war-on-isis-allies-slip-away.html?_r=0
So far, eight Arab and Western allies have conducted about 5 percent of the 2,700 airstrikes in Syria, compared with 30 percent of the 5,100 strikes in Iraq, where many NATO partners also fly missions against the Islamic State. But the United States was always likely to fly the majority of the missions in Syria, as it does in Iraq, since its air forces are much larger than those of the Arab states or any forces deployed by Western allies.
...
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have shifted most of their aircraft to their fight against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Jordan, reacting to the grisly execution of one of its pilots by the Islamic State, and in a show of solidarity with the Saudis, has also diverted combat flights to Yemen. Jets from Bahrain last struck targets in Syria in February, coalition officials said. Qatar is flying patrols over Syria, but its role has been modest.

“They’ve all been busy doing other things, Yemen being the primary draw,” Lt. Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., who leads the air war from a $60 million command center at this sprawling base in Qatar, said of the Arab allies. He added that those allies still fly periodic missions in Syria and allow American jets to use their bases.

The United Arab Emirates last carried out strikes in Syria in March; Jordan in August; and Saudi Arabia in September, according to information provided by allied officials last week. But the Arab allies insist they are still playing an essential, if less active, military role in the war.

[Michael]

Yes, and I think this is the problem. Anything France does in anger out of this event, is more likely to be within France, simply because they don't have the military or diplomacy clout to make a difference against IS on their own ground. Had the attack happened in the US, things would have been very different.

But my guess is that a massive reaction is exactly what IS wants, and France is only an easy target. They will be dying to strike the US. As I see this IS movement, they are primarily interested in the Levant, but for associated reasons, they also want to violate the West. And yet they don't have the pan-international agenda that Al Qaeda has/had. I sense they want to draw the West into the Middle East, to escalate their cause - to create a god-awful Armageddon which they believe they will win. It's a kind of death wish, which psychologically lies behind their death fixation.

As so, they will continue to assault Western nations in any way they can - it seems to help their own cause, for some twisted psychological reason.

[erik]

There is a prophecy about Syria:

Syria will collapse down to the feet of its conqueror but the conqueror is going to turn out to be somebody else.

by this woman: http://www.baba-vanga.com/2015/05/23/baba-vanga-predictions-and-are-they-phenomenon/

But her percentage of correct hits is around 80%.

Anyhow, here's more: http://www.alamongordo.com/the-forgotten-baba-vanga-prophecies-about-world-war-iii/

[Michael]

A lot of people are pondering this latest IS assault in a Western city. What appears different, is that this is the first time a sophisticated and coordinated (possibly from outside France) attack has been launched. Up until now, it has all been about the radicalised 'lone wolf' or at least amateur attack. This marks a change in strategy.

Some have said it's due to IS failing on the battle field in Syria and Iraq. True, the Kurds did take back some place important to the Yazidis, but it seems a little premature to claim IS is on the run. Certainly, an attack like just happened in Paris must be a significant boost to recruitment among disenfranchised Muslim youth in Western countries, but do IS rely on Western youth that much? I'd have thought they were an unreliable and marginal fighting force.

I suppose, there could be a change in IS command, which is tipping back to Al Qaeda's strategy, but I've heard no verification of that.

Then we have Russia and the US agreeing on a political strategy for Syria. Fat chance that'll be worth much.

It now remains to be seen what the 'super powers' will do next.

[Michael]

Talk of war has begun - alas, this is a critical moment.

[erik]

At least one of the attackers seems to have come from Syria, lately. Hence, the issue of refugees takes on a different context.

You would not believe how willing are young Muslims from Europe to go to fight in Syria.

I have talked to a former recruiter of Mujahideen (they fought against Soviets in Afganistan) who tries to talk some sense to Muslim youngsters in Europe. The fact is that the number of people willing to go to war for ISIS is in a different order of magnitude. It is that much higher.

[Michael]

Yes, and it appears it is not so much the initial immigrant generation, but subsequent generations. So screening the immigrant/refugee is critically important, but it's their subsequent children that is the main worry.

I can only assume this is a cultural problem, in that Muslim youth feel dissatisfied in their life paths, possibly due to the inherent racism in traditional cultures. All they have in front of them are options of boring suburban drudgery, crime, or straight to heaven in an exciting adventure. But Australia is a high level multicultural nation, where there are not significant obstacles to cultural involvement, and yet we have a lot of radicalisation problems here. The problem appears to be more complex than simple social exclusion issues.